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As the seasons change, Russia adapts its offensive strategy in Ukraine. Last winter, Russia targeted Ukraine’s power grid, leaving millions without a regular supply of electricity. Then, in spring 2023, Russia shifted its focus to Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure. As winter approaches again, Putin and his forces are reverting to targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan analyzes Russia’s recent victories and discusses how Putin’s evolving tactics affect the global economy.
Excerpted from Peter’s Sept. 29 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
As of September, Putin has sufficiently disrupted Ukraine’s grain exports and overall agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the Russians were bolstering their wheat exports, so global supply has held steady, and prices are still down.
Don’t rely on this Russian grain, though, because new sea conflicts, impacts on shipping routes and an unpredictable climate could change everything at the drop of a hat. The best course of action would be to help Ukraine develop better rail infrastructure and grain transport options.
As the temps begin to shift, we will see the Russians change up their strategy once again. They will transition from attacking Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure back to targeting the power grid… but just because the Russian’s focus has shifted, doesn’t mean grain markets will be stable.
