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From President Joe Biden’s declining health to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, there’s been a series of major political developments in the United States that might impact the results of the November election. These developments have led to renewed confusion, concern and debate regarding which candidate might win, and in the Democrats’ case, which candidate will even run at all.
Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan reviews recent polls and cautions against placing too much faith in these early projections.
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The following is an excerpt from Peter’s July 19 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Everyone wants to know if the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is going to impact the outcome of the election. I hate to break it to you, but no one knows. The only historical precedence is from 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt was shot, finished his speech, and then proceeded to get smoked in the elections
If you’re one of the nerds who is analyzing every poll that comes out to get a sense of how this election will play out, I feel it prudent to tell you to just stop — at least for another month or so. Most polls disregard the independents’ influence, look at a national level as opposed to state level, and the role of third-party candidates isn’t factored in. This goes without saying, but you should at least wait until the DNC wraps up in August.
Now, if you’re dying to look at some poll data, I would recommend using the site 270towin.com. It aggregates reliable poll information and allows you to manipulate how you view the data. Or you could just draw a name out of a hat…
