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Following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent bombardment of the Gaza Strip, skirmishes between the Israelis and Hezbollah on the Lebanese border have increased. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militant group, threatened to join the war against Israel if Israeli forces fail to protect civilians in Gaza but refrained from committing his forces to a war outright. The question still looms over Lebanon: Will Hezbollah join the war?
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan argues that this is Hamas and Israel’s fight, and that no one else is going to get involved. Additionally, Zeihan identifies the one Middle Eastern country that could potentially alter the course of the conflict.
Excerpted from Peter’s Nov. 16 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
As the situation unfolds in Gaza, many of you have asked who we might see getting involved in the conflict. So, let’s break down the key regional players and how this is playing out.
One of the few countries who could make a real difference in the conflict is Egypt – and given the dodgy history – I doubt that will happen. Hezbollah in Lebanon will likely keep their hands out as well. And despite Iran’s vocal support of the Palestinian cause, they have no interest in a confrontation with the U.S. military.
Since none of the major players plan to intervene, this conflict will likely remain an isolated fight for Hamas. The Saudis are in a complex situation, so we’ll have to touch on that another time.
