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Will Hezbollah assist Hamas with its fight against Israel?

Nov 16


Following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent bombardment of the Gaza Strip, skirmishes between the Israelis and Hezbollah on the Lebanese border have increased. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militant group, threatened to join the war against Israel if Israeli forces fail to protect civilians in Gaza but refrained from committing his forces to a war outright. The question still looms over Lebanon: Will Hezbollah join the war?

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan argues that this is Hamas and Israel’s fight, and that no one else is going to get involved. Additionally, Zeihan identifies the one Middle Eastern country that could potentially alter the course of the conflict.

Excerpted from Peter’s Nov. 16 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

As the situation unfolds in Gaza, many of you have asked who we might see getting involved in the conflict. So, let’s break down the key regional players and how this is playing out.

One of the few countries who could make a real difference in the conflict is Egypt – and given the dodgy history – I doubt that will happen. Hezbollah in Lebanon will likely keep their hands out as well. And despite Iran’s vocal support of the Palestinian cause, they have no interest in a confrontation with the U.S. military.

Since none of the major players plan to intervene, this conflict will likely remain an isolated fight for Hamas. The Saudis are in a complex situation, so we’ll have to touch on that another time.

Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from last Canyon in Colorado. Today we’re going to talk about what’s going on with a situation in a very, very, very short version is that this is his MOS is really a fight, and no one else is gonna get involved. The big players have all now kind of made their announcements either by action or inaction. Let’s start with the most important one and the only one who could really change the direction of the conflict. And that’s Egypt. The Israelis had been hopeful that they could convince the United States United Nations, you know, anyone with a pulse, that the solution to this problem is just move all of the Gazans out of the strip and into the camps or into 10 camps in the Sinai. The Israelis have been trying to move the Palestinians. For him, she’s it’s 3040 If you won’t be completely honest about it, but certainly since 1973, idealists say there was no acceptance of that the Egyptians were the ones who give the most vociferous objection. In fact, the Egyptians really are broadly against even sending aid into the Gaza, people forget that the Egyptians used to control Gaza between 1948 1973 and no one had a good time. And the only way that the Egyptians would like to see the Palestinians crossing the different territories and coffins or preferably bought trucks full of bodies. So there’s gonna be no assistance there. The second one, the country or the the faction that a lot of people were worried about is Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a Shiite Arab militia that operates out of southern Lebanon in particular. And they have had a number of scrapes with the Israelis in the past. And they have the very powerful paramilitary force. And a lot of rockets that everyone’s well they rain down on Israeli cities. And their leader Hassan Nasrallah had this really fiery speech where he’s like, go go go resistance, fight the Jews. And we were just gonna stay here and everyone have a great day. Hezbollah has a lot to lose. This is clearly a Hamas operation, they’ve been clearly preparing for it for some time. And Hezbollah has not there was no coordination whatsoever. And so they’re certainly not ready to move. And even if they were, I really doubt they would, they’ve got different backers. They’ve got a different religion, they’ve got different approaches. And at the end of the day, Hezbollah has gotten a lot of what it sought over the last 50 years. They are part of the government in Beirut now. And that gives them a seat at the table in a way that they’ve never had before no Palestinians have ever had before. And they don’t want to give that up, especially since they’re not the ones who lit the fuse on this particular conflict. Now, Hezbollah does have a sponsor slash ally in Iran. And that’s kind of the third country in question here. And kind of like Nasrallah, the Supreme Leader of excuse me, of Iran recently gave a speech and he again, rah rah rah, fight the occupation, kill the Jews, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But you know, Jews, if you don’t attack us right now, we’re going to reciprocate, we hate you, and you should all die, but not by our hand and not today. So they’re going to be kicking off some low-risk things. They’re taking some potshots via their proxies in places like Syria at American bases. So far set con, which is in Qatar to American operations. That area has said that nothing has happened that has generated noticeable meaningful casualties or damage. So the need to respond in the United States is relatively limited from a military point of view, and be rainy and certainly aren’t going to risk a broader confrontation with the American Navy in the Gulf, which is like their sole source of economic income now, in order to defend a group that they have publicly denounced as apostate screen animals and are worthy of only destruction. So they found it useful, maybe to nudge Hamas into this on a timing issue. But at the end of the day, they’re certainly going to bleed Farland Okay, does that spit from me?

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