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Russia is having its fair share of military challenges over the last few months, highlighted by low morale among troops and logistical challenges. The recent bombing of the bridge connecting Crimea and Russia has made matters worse for Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the bridge served as a reliable artery for supplying Crimea with military and humanitarian needs. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan believes the damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge presents Ukraine with a unique window of opportunity to change the course of the war.
Excerpted from Peter’s Oct. 13 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Even as Russia continues its work to assess the damage of the Oct. 8 blast that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, one thing is glaringly evident: we are at least weeks, if not months, away from normal operations across both the road and rail portion. Frustrating in even the best of times, the bridge represented not only a vital lifeline and point of connection between the Crimean Peninsula and Russia, but was a vital supply line for Russia’s southern front in Ukraine as well.
Even if trucks can still–slowly–make the journey, trucked fuel supplies are smaller, slower and more vulnerable than the rail routes Moscow had previously relied on. All of which sets up an interesting set of opportunities for the Ukrainians. If Kyiv ever had a window of opportunity to push hard against Russian forces in southern Ukraine, that time would be now.
