CEOs of nearly 280 U.S. companies now say the odds of a downturn in the second half of 2025 are shrinking, and many have shifted to outright growth expectations.
The CEO Confidence Index for June finds that only 28% of respondents now foresee a mild recession or economic slowdown over the next six months. That figure is down sharply from 46% in May and 62% in April.
What has changed since April’s panic?
CNBC reports that executives trace the mood swing to the easing of Trump-era tariff threats. When President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries on his so-called “Liberation Day” in early April, markets plunged and CEOs feared they would have to pass higher import costs to consumers.
But as the president has postponed or paused many of those tariffs – while making trade deals with countries such as the U.K. and negotiating with China – fears of a possible recession have eased.
Economic impact
The CEO Confidence Index for June found that only 28% of respondents, compared to 62% in April, foresee an economic slowdown happening through the rest of 2025.
That easing is showing up in the data. The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found inflation concerns fell sharply from April to May, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index registered an unexpectedly strong jump for May, which economists attribute in large part to the tariff pause.
Home Depot CEO Edward Decker told CNBC, “From the macro, the worst conditions, I think, have passed. We’re gone from a dynamic of where we were going to have a near certain recession and stock market correction in early April, to where today markets are fully recovered and recession expectations are way down.”
Outlook for the rest of 2025
The Chief Executive Group’s survey also found that 42% of CEOs expect the economy to grow in the latter half of 2025, compared to 27% in May and 23% in April.
Chief Executive’s takeaway: corporate leaders are betting that the tariff-driven turbulence is temporary and clarity on trade will arrive by fall, setting the stage for steadier growth rather than recession.
Meanwhile, the World Bank released a more pessimistic forecast internationally on Tuesday, June 10. Its global growth forecast for 2025 is down by nearly half of a percentage point. The World Bank noted that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed “a significant headwind” for almost all economies. However, it stopped short of forecasting a global recession.
