Pacific Northwest’s ‘unusual’ underwater volcano expected to erupt in 2025


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Summary

Axial Seamount

Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off the Oregon coast, is showing signs it may erupt by the end of 2025.

Ocean observatory

Scientists at the University of Washington are monitoring it with an observatory that sends real-time images, data and video from the ocean floor.

No threat to public

Experts say the eruption poses little risk to nearby populations due to its depth and distance, but it does play a vital role in supporting an ecosystem.


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Off the coast of Oregon, thousands of feet beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, scientists are watching an active volcano that may erupt for the first time in a decade. The site, known as Axial Seamount, is being monitored by researchers at the University of Washington through an extensive underwater observatory network called the Cabled Array.

A rare view into Earth’s geology

Housed within UWโ€™s College of the Environment, the Cabled Array is one of the largest underwater observatories in the world. Its network of sensors spreads across the ocean floor, sending back real-time data, including images and video, to help researchers study seismic activity and changes in the seafloor.

Axial Seamount isnโ€™t a typical volcano. It sits above a fixed hotspot โ€” a place where molten rock rises from deep within the Earthโ€™s mantle toward the crust. As tectonic plates slowly shift above it, the hotspot stays in place, creating a chain of volcanoes over time.

Unbiased. Straight Facts.TM

Oregon’s Axial Seamount, one of the world’s most active underwater volcanoes, has recently been triggering over 1,000 small earthquakes a day

โ€œItโ€™s pretty unusual,โ€ said William Wilcock, a professor in the UW School of Oceanography. โ€œItโ€™s a genuine hotspot, and the volcano itself is quite large, rising about 3,600 feet above the seafloor.โ€

In March and April, scientists detected early warning signs of an eruption, including more than 1,000 small earthquakes per day. Additionally, the volcano is filling with molten rock.

At the end of 2024, researchers warned the volcano could erupt sometime in 2025. That led to new questions: Would it cause earthquakes or tsunamis that threaten the Pacific Northwest?

Experts say there’s no cause for alarm

According to UW scientists, the volcano is too deep and too far from the shore to pose any real threat to people on land. Because itโ€™s located miles below the surface, they say the chances of a tsunami or damaging seismic activity are low.

Unlike eruptions on land, this one likely wouldnโ€™t be seen or felt by most people, even if it happened tomorrow.

Life thrives at extreme depths

Despite the intense heat of underwater vents blasting water at more than 700 degrees Fahrenheit, the area around Axial Seamount supports a rich and complex ecosystem.

โ€œMost of the seafloor is relatively plain,โ€ said Deborah Kelley, a professor in the UW School of Oceanography and director of the Regional Cabled Array. โ€œBut when you get to the vent fields, you realize that the volcano is an oasis of life.โ€

In the absence of sunlight, microbes use volcanic gases to produce energy, forming the base of a food web that supports giant tubeworms, spider crabs, clams, fish and octopuses.

Waiting for the eruption

Axial Seamount has erupted three times in recorded history; in 1998, 2011 and 2015. While scientists donโ€™t know exactly when the next eruption will happen, they plan to capture it using live video and data from the seafloor.

Meanwhile, scientists are also currently monitoring nearby Mount Rainier, which sits less than 70 miles from Seattle.

Drew Pittock (Evening Digital Producer) and Zachary Hill (Video Editor) contributed to this report.
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Why this story matters

Axial Seamount's potential eruption brings attention to the unique ecosystems of underwater volcanoes, their minimal impact on public safety, and greater opportunities to improve eruption prediction models.

Get the big picture

Synthesized coverage insights across 15 media outlets

Behind the numbers

Multiple sources report that Axial Seamount is currently experiencing between 200 and 1,000 earthquakes daily, with some surges coinciding with tidal forces. During its 2015 eruption, over 10,000 earthquakes were recorded in 24 hours, and one lava flow reached 450 feet thick, approximately two-thirds the height of the Seattle Space Needle, mapped onto the seafloor.

Context corner

Axial Seamount is situated at the boundary of the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates, at a mid-ocean ridge where volcanic activity is common due to tectonic movement. Underwater volcanoes like Axial are important for understanding geological processes and deep-sea ecosystems. Eruptions here cause local ecological impacts but have limited broader risks due to the volcanoโ€™s depth and location.

History lesson

Axial Seamount has erupted three times in recent decades: 1998, 2011 and 2015. Each event provided scientists with incremental improvements in eruption forecasting and understanding seafloor ecosystemsโ€™ resilience. Its repeated activity and extensive monitoring make it a valuable natural laboratory for testing new oceanographic and geophysical research tools and protocols.

Bias comparison

  • Media outlets on the left frame the underwater volcano primarily as an environmental and scientific event rich with ecological significance, emphasizing the eruption as a "spectacular event" that offers rare research opportunities on deep-sea ecosystems, often invoking a cautionary tone with words like โ€œcould erupt soonโ€ and highlighting the "charred 'tubeworm barbeque'" impact on vent life.
  • Not enough coverage from media outlets in the center to provide a bias comparison.
  • Media outlets on the right stress reassurance, downplaying risk to human populations and stressing that the volcano is โ€œballooningโ€ but not linked to regional seismic threats, using colloquial and humorous language to minimize alarm.

Media landscape

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16 total sources

Key points from the Left

  • An underwater volcano named Axial Seamount, located about 300 miles off Oregon's coast, is showing signs of an imminent eruption, with increased earthquake activity and swelling.
  • Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, stated that forecasts indicate Axial could erupt anytime between now and the end of the year.
  • Debbie Kelley, director of the Regional Cabled Array, noted that the eruptions are unlikely to impact people on land due to the volcano's depth and remote location.
  • Scientists view the situation as a valuable research opportunity to improve eruption prediction models without endangering anyone.

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Key points from the Center

  • An underwater volcano called Axial Seamount located off the coast of Oregon could erupt soon due to increased seismic activity as magma builds up under the surface.
  • The last eruption of Axial Seamount in 2015 caused about 10,000 earthquakes in 24 hours, and a similar number is expected for the next eruption, which could happen anytime from tomorrow to early 2026.
  • Researchers plan to publicly livestream the next eruption of Axial Seamount, which would be the first time an underwater volcanic eruption has been livestreamed.

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Key points from the Right

  • Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off Oregon's coast, shows signs of a possible eruption with over 1,000 daily earthquakes.
  • Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, states that the volcano poses no danger to people on land or at sea due to its depth and the nature of its eruptions.
  • The University of Washington assures that the eruption is not linked to seismic activity on land, so residents do not need to fear a major earthquake or tsunami.
  • Chadwick predicts Axial Seamount could erupt by the end of 2025, but he notes that predicting volcanic eruptions is challenging.

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