Record-breaking Earth warming

Hurricane season is set to begin this Sunday. Experts warn of a bad season for storms and predict years of record-breaking heat ahead. — Image credit: Getty Images

This recording was made using enhanced software.

Summary

Rising global temperatures

The World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office report an 80% chance that Earth will set a new record for the highest annual average temperature within the next five years.

Extreme weather impacts

Experts indicate that rising global temperatures are tied to increased extreme weather events such as stronger hurricanes, increased heavy precipitation and more frequent droughts.

Recent climate disasters

2024 was recorded as the hottest year globally, marking the first time Earth exceeded the anticipated warming threshold. Climate experts reported that this contributed to 27 weather disasters in the United States, with damages exceeding $180 billion.

Full story

With the Atlantic hurricane season set to begin this Sunday, June 1, and experts predicting an above-average season for storms, forecasters are now saying to get ready for years of record-breaking heat.

The World Meteorological Organization, in coordination with the U.K. Meteorological Office, released a five-year climate outlook Wednesday, reporting an 80% chance that Earth will break another record for the highest average annual temperature within that time frame.

Impact of hotter summers

Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald told The Associates Press that higher global temperatures will translate into more powerful storms. “Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” Mahowald explained. “And that will lead to people dying.”

Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, went a step further, warning that even a tenth of a degree in additional warming increases the frequency of more extreme events – from heatwaves and wildfires to floods, hurricanes and typhoons.

How hot will it get?

Since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the global benchmark has been to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. But scientists now say there is an 86% chance that this threshold will be surpassed at least once by 2030.

That projection is based on 200 computer simulations and global climate models analyzed by forecasting centers around the world.

2024 was the hottest year on record

For evidence, scientists say look no further than last year, when Earth recorded its hottest year ever. It was the first time ever the Earth was above the anticipated warming threshold. The result, according to climate scientists, was 27 weather disasters in the United States alone, which cost more than $180 billion in damages.

Samantha Burgess, climate lead at the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, explained: “These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapor levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.“

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is no indication that these trends will reverse. In fact, the data shows a steady rise in global temperatures dating back to the start of modern record-keeping in 1850.

Jason Morrell (Morning Managing Editor), Kaleb Gillespie (Video Editor ), and Matt Bishop (Digital Producer) contributed to this report.

Tags: Climate Change, Heat wave, Hurricane season, Severe Weather, summer, Weather

With the Atlantic Hurricane season set to begin this Sunday, June 1, and experts predicting an above normal season for storms, forecasters are now saying to get ready for years of record breaking heat.
The World Meteorological Organization, in coordination with the U.K.Met Office, released a five-year climate outlook Wednesday, reporting an 80% chance that Earth will break another record for the highest average annual temperature within that time frame.
Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald told the Associates Press that higher global temperatures will translate into more powerful storms. “Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts.” Mahowald said. “And that will lead to people dying.”
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, went a step further, warning that even a tenth of a degree in additional warming increases the frequency of more extreme events – from heatwaves and wildfires to floods, hurricanes, and typhoons.
Since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the global benchmark has been to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. But scientists now say there is an 86% chance that this threshold will be surpassed at least once by 2030.
That projection is based on 200 computer simulations and global climate models analyzed by forecasting centers around the world.
For evidence, scientists say look no further than last year when Earth recorded its hottest year ever. It was the first time ever the Earth was above the anticipated warming threshold. The result, according to climate scientists, was 27 weather disasters in the United States alone, which cost more than $180 billion in damage. .
Samantha Burgess, climate lead at the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service said in a release, “These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapor levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people. “ She added, “ The primary reason for these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. “
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is no indication that these trends will reverse. In fact, the data shows a steady rise in global temperatures dating back to the start of modern record-keeping in 1850.

Why this story matters

Climate experts report that the likelihood of record-breaking global temperatures and resulting extreme weather events is increasing, which may have significant social, economic and environmental consequences in the years ahead.

Rising global temperatures

According to a five-year climate outlook by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office, there is an 80% chance that the Earth will experience the highest average annual temperature on record within the next five years.

Extreme weather events

Climate scientists assert that higher global temperatures will lead to more frequent and severe incidents like hurricanes, droughts and heatwaves, which can result in loss of life and widespread damages.

Economic and social impact

Climate experts predict substantial economic costs and societal disruptions, including $180 billion in U.S. damages from weather disasters and significant harm to communities worldwide due to heatwaves and heavy rain.

Get the big picture

Behind the numbers

NOAA forecasts a 60% chance of an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. They predict 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 of those potentially reaching major hurricane status, emphasizing potentially widespread impacts.

Context corner

Hurricane forecasting has improved markedly since major events like Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Scientists now rely on enhanced models, satellite data and environmental indicators, including ocean temperatures and climate cycles like ENSO. Above-average hurricane activity has been observed repeatedly over the past decade, and climate change is widely cited as a contributing factor to recent trends.

Diverging views

Articles in the 'left' category frequently discuss the impact of recent staffing and budget cuts at NOAA and FEMA under the Trump administration, suggesting that these reductions could risk the effectiveness of hurricane forecasting and disaster response. In contrast, 'right'-leaning outlets focus less on workforce issues and more heavily on calls for preparedness and individual responsibility without substantial discussion of federal cuts.