Airlines and insurers are revising decades-old policies requiring a global grounding of flights following a nuclear detonation, according to The Telegraph. Initially based on the belief that any atomic explosion would signal the start of World War III, those policies no longer fit today’s shifting threats. Tensions in Ukraine and Kashmir, along with the growing presence of tactical nuclear weapons, have led aviation insurers to prepare for the possibility that a limited strike may not warrant worldwide flight shutdowns.
What are the changes in nuclear war insurance coverage?
Gallagher, the world’s largest aviation insurance broker, began developing a new risk model after Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine in 2022. Now, with India and Pakistan’s conflict over Kashmir intensifying, the urgency has grown. Gallagher’s revised framework would allow select insurers to meet within four hours of a detonation. This group, comprised of 15 insurers, would assess country-by-country risk levels and determine where flights could continue.
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Russia reportedly maintains nearly 2,000 nonstrategic nuclear warheads, part of a broader shift toward tactical nuclear capabilities among rival powers.
Under traditional aviation insurance rules, any hostile nuclear detonation automatically terminates third-party and passenger liability coverage, grounding all insured aircraft worldwide. Known as “AVN52” automatic termination clauses, these Cold War-era provisions remain embedded in most aviation war risk policies. They would ground all insured flights globally, regardless of weapon size or location.
To address this, Gallagher launched a contingency plan offering $1 billion in war risk coverage per aircraft, less than half the amount provided under traditional policies. Gallagher estimates that the potential added cost to passengers would be minimal, less than the price of a cup of coffee, if the policy is triggered. Gallagher says this allows operations to resume selectively, based on risk assessments guided by analysts at Osprey Flight Solutions and insurer consensus.
Analysts say the broader war insurance market is in a more stable position after a major recalibration during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Global war premiums have grown more than fivefold since 2021, giving insurers more capacity to support contingency frameworks like Gallagher’s.
Any airline with a participating broker can now access the new insurance framework. The plan extends coverage beyond the usual 48-hour shutdown period, giving carriers a clear path to resume flights while global reinsurers reset their risk models.
What’s driving this shift in nuclear threat assessment?
Modern tactical nuclear weapons can deliver low-yield blasts that are significantly smaller than those used in past conflicts. For instance, the U.S. B61 bomb can carry a warhead as small as 0.3 kilotons, far below the 20-kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
Countries like Russia, China and North Korea have developed or deployed battlefield nuclear systems designed for regional use.
- Russia’s official doctrine reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to nuclear or conventional threats if the existence of the state is at risk. However, experts warn that its actual threshold may be lower, as suggested by nuclear rhetoric during the Ukraine war. Russia reportedly maintains a stockpile of nearly 2,000 nonstrategic nuclear warheads.
- China is developing a resilient nuclear triad, sea, air and ground-based systems, and has constructed hundreds of ICBM silos. Analysts say Beijing may shift to a “launch-on-warning” posture, aligning its nuclear readiness more closely with the U.S. and Russia.
- North Korea is expanding both its tactical and strategic missile systems and has passed a law outlining scenarios for preemptive nuclear use. Analysts say Pyongyang is moving toward a battlefield-ready operational capability.
- Iran does not currently possess nuclear weapons, but has previously explored weaponization. Its large ballistic missile inventory could theoretically be adapted for nuclear use if the government were to pursue that path.
Are airlines prepared to operate after a nuclear detonation?
About 100 airlines have already signed up for the Gallagher plan. In Europe, 60 have joined, though budget carriers have shown hesitance.
However, other policy clauses remain a potential obstacle. A “five powers war clause” is still standard in many aviation contracts, which voids coverage if a conflict occurs between any combination of the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, or China. Analysts warn that targeting British or French troops in Ukraine could activate the clause and collapse insurance coverage, grounding flights despite revised nuclear policies.
