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Ben Weingarten

Federalist Senior Contributor; Claremont Institute Fellow

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Opinion

Global community ignores public opinion in Israel, Palestine

May 21

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Ben Weingarten

Federalist Senior Contributor; Claremont Institute Fellow

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Negotiators working to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have largely focused their attention on proposals for a two-state solution. That work presumes at least the tacit consent of both Israeli and Palestinian populations to agree to and abide by the terms of such a compromise.

However, after Oct. 7, 2023, Israeli public support for a two-state solution plummeted, while Israeli opposition increased. And while most Gazans now support a two-state solution, strong majorities of both Israelis and Palestinians said they do not believe that the opposing side would respect their rights as a sovereign and independent people, underscoring the ongoing difficulties that negotiators face.

Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor Ben Weingarten reviews recent survey data on Israeli and Palestinian public opinion and shares his analysis on the implications of this data.


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The following is an excerpt of the above video:

In fact, the polling of the civilian population – which is never talked about by U.S. leaders nor their global counterparts – is really worth parsing. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research has been polling Palestinian Arabs in Gaza and Judea and Samaria for years, providing one of the few credible indicators we have of the population’s sentiment. Here’s what the center found in its most recent round of polling, dated April 15, 2024:

Seventy-one percent say Hamas’ decision to launch the Oct. 7th attack was correct – up 14% in Gaza since Dec. ’23.

Seventy percent are “satisfied” with Hamas’ “performance” in the war, highest among all options between Hamas; its leader Sinwar (61%); Fatah, which polls at a mere 27%, and its leader Abbas (just 14%).

Ninety-one percent think Hamas did not commit war crimes during the Israel-Hamas war.

Fifty-nine percent want Hamas to control the Gaza Strip after the war – 64% in Judea and Samaria and 52% in the Gaza Strip.

Seventy-three percent oppose a “long-term vision for the day after [the war] in which the U.S. and an Arab coalition comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan would develop a plan that would strengthen the Palestinian Authority, restore negotiations based on the two-state solution, and bring about an Arab-Israeli peace and normalization.”

Thirty-four percent – a plurality – support Hamas over Fatah (17%) and other political parties or trends.

Seventy percent would vote for Hamas’ Haniyeh as a leader in a one-on-one presidential contest with Fatah’s Abbas.

Forty-six percent – a plurality – believe “armed struggle” is the most effective method to “to end the Israeli occupation and establish an independent state.”

And yes, again, a majority – 52% – oppose the idea of a “two-state solution.”

The entire public conversation in America is completely and totally unmoored not only from what Israelis want, but from what Palestinian Arabs want. These figures show that our leaders and again the international community are operating in a dream world – that the terms they are trying to dictate are opposed by the parties they impact. And they ignore the uncomfortable truth that the Palestinian Arab population is largely with Hamas, likely because they can’t grapple with the implications of it. But anyone who wants to credibly talk about a day after in Gaza has to grapple with these numbers.

The Biden administration is doing everything it possibly can negative and positive from denying Israel weapons to working to undermine and topple its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to offering the Jewish state intelligence on the whereabouts of Hamas leaders, meaning it’s had at all this time to induce Israel to end the war on Hamas without eradicating the genocide of Jihadist group and to force upon Israel the creation of a Palestinian state. Such a state would reward the terrorists who have both Israeli and American blood on their hands for the October 7 massacre and likely result in them being incorporated into the Palestinian Authority led government the administration of visions will assume power set aside for a moment that Gaza showed us what a Palestinian state would look like, as the people they’re elected Hamas, a people many of whom participated alongside Hamas in the savagery that resulted in 1200 innocents killed, hundreds taken hostage unthinkable atrocities, and all the myriad costs associated with the war. Set aside the history of the repeated land concessions that Israel has offered and made to Palestinian Arabs for peace that the Palestinian Arabs have rewarded with only more savagery and bloodshed. And of course, that their leaders have repeatedly rejected offers for a state set aside that the creation of such a state in Gaza and Judea and Samaria would make for indefensible borders threatening Israel’s annihilation. That is, it would render moot the button administration’s promise of the carrot of Saudi normalization that Israel had already been on the path towards namely with Trump and power and Iran and its proxies on life support for the stick of a Palestinian state, because Israel’s very existence would be in peril. There’s a massive elephant in the room that neither the White House nor the international community want to talk about, reflecting a completely unrealistic premise that will guarantee calamitous outcomes if the world gets his way, empowering Iran and its proxies and imperiling Israel and America’s national interest. That elephant in the room is this and other Israelis nor Palestinian Arabs support a two state solution. Their majority of Israelis oppose the two state solution post October 7 should be unsurprising who could possibly witness to raping, murdering, naming and mutilating that took place and believe a Palestinian state is the answer. Perhaps the greatest shift has occurred among the Israeli left disproportionate to state solutions supporters historically, living in the kibbutzim near Gaza and who had welcomed Gazans to work alongside them only to disproportionately bear the brunt of their attacks. Israel’s representatives almost unanimous we reject the idea that any nation would unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state as the button administration as threatened. But as for the Palestinian Arabs, the binary administration and world has been at pains to try and draw a bright line distinction between the people and the jihadist. This not withstanding again, that the Palestinian Arabs elected a mosque that they elected Fatah unremarkable muda boss, which leads the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria supports jihadism and rationalized October 7. And the generations of Palestinian Arabs have been indoctrinated in genocide, oh, Jew hatred and Islamic supremacism. And guess what Shakur polling indicates they oppose a two state solution. In fact, the polling of the civilian population, which is never talked about by US leaders, nor their global counterparts, is really worth parson. The Palestinian Center for Policy and survey research has been polling Palestinian Arabs and Gaza and Judea and Samaria for years, providing one of the few credible indicators we have of the population sentiment on a whole raft of issues. Here’s what the center found in its most recent round of polling dated April 15 2024 71%. Say Hamas has decision to launch the October 7 attack was correct. Up 14% in Gaza since December 2023 70% are quote satisfied with Hamas his performance in the war highest among all options between Hamas its leader sinwar Fatah, which polls at a mere 27% and its leader, a boss, just 14% 91% of Palestinian Arabs think Hamas did not commit war crimes during the Israel Hamas war 59% One Hamas to control the Gaza Strip after the war 64% in Judea and Samaria, and 52% still on majority in the Gaza Strip. 73% oppose a long term vision for the day after the war in which the US and an Arab coalition comprising Egypt Saudi Arabia and Jordan would develop a plan that would strengthen the Palestinian Authority restore negotiations based on the two state solution and bring about an Arab Israeli peace and normalization 34% A plurality support Hamas over Fatah and other political parties or trends 70% would vote for Hamas is honey a as a leader in a one on one presidential contest with Fatah’s Abbas 46%. A plurality believe armed struggle is the most effective method to end the Israeli occupation and establish an independent state and yes, again and majority 52% oppose the idea of a two state solution.

 

The entire public conversation in America is completely and totally unmoored not only from what Israelis want, but from what Palestinian Arabs want. These figures show that our leaders and again, the international community are operating in a dream world, that the terms they are trying to dictate, are opposed by the parties. They impact and ignore the uncomfortable truth that the Palestinian Arab population is largely with Hamas, likely because they can’t grapple with the implications of it. But anyone who wants to credibly talk about a day after in Gaza has to grapple with these numbers. All else is folly dangerous folly.

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