Israel killed Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar. Now what?

ONE YEAR AND TEN DAYS AFTER HAMAS TERRORISTS STORMED SOUTHERN ISRAEL, KILLING MORE THAN 1,200 INNOCENT PEOPLE AND KIDNAPPING ANOTHER 250,
THE MAN WHO ORGANIZED AND LED THE ATTACK, YAHYA SINWAR, WAS KILLED BY ISRAELI FORCES.

Avi Melamed:
Israelis were happy to know that Sinwar was eliminated. Some Israelis were celebrating that on the streets. I personally must say that, you know, though of course I shed no tear for the killing of Sinwar, I am resentful of this expression of, you know, celebrations on the street. I don’t think it’s something that–at least it’s not my way.

AVI MELAMED IS A FORMER ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE OFFICER AND NEGOTIATOR. HE’S NOW AN AUTHOR AND MIDDLE EAST ADVISOR. I’VE SPOKEN WITH HIM SEVERAL TIMES SINCE THE START OF THE WAR IN GAZA. SO, FOR A FULL ACCOUNT OF OUR PREVIOUS TALKS, BE SURE TO CHECK OUT SAN.COM.

AFTER NEWS OF SINWAR’S DEATH BROKE, I WANTED TO GET MELAMED’S INSIGHTS ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Ryan Robertson:
There’s a lot of talks, you know, could this be the impetus to get the hostages home? Could this be the impetus for peace talks? I mean, Hamas’s leadership is now all, all but completely destroyed. There might be one or two, you know, low level officers left

Avi Melamed:
Look, there are different aspects of it. First, Hamas leadership exists. I mean, you got the leadership outside of Gaza Strip, and also in Gaza Strip. Most of the leadership of Hamas in Gaza was eliminated, and most of its military structure has been demolished, Hamas still continues to maintain some sort of operation on the ground. Obviously, not in the same level that it had at the beginning of the war, October 7.
So, that is correct that the removing of Sinwar could potentially open a new path, maybe for some more productive, fruitful discussion about the issue of the hostages. However, we should remember that, apparently, there is no one factor that holds the hostages. They are scattered.

HAMAS STILLS HOLDS AROUND 100 HOSTAGES. NOT ALL OF THEM ARE THOUGHT TO BE ALIVE, BUT OF THE ONES THAT ARE, MELAMED SAYS THEY’RE BEING HELD NOT JUST BY HAMAS FIGHTERS, BUT BY FIGHTERS FROM OTHER FACTIONS OF IRAN’S AXIS OF RESISTANCE, AS WELL AS QUOTE UN QUOTE PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS STILL IN GAZA.

Avi Melamed:
I am concerned, for example, about the situation where militants who hold these hostages now basically will decide just to execute them and just walk away. The same goes for civilians in Gaza that are holding hostages in their homes, and now maybe will say, ‘Maybe I should just get rid of them, and that’s it and I walk away as if nothing happened.’

MELAMED IS ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IN THE ARAB WORLD TO GLORIFY SINWAR, SAYING THE DRAMATIC VIDEO SHOWING THE TERRORIST LEADER’S LAST MOMENTS ARE FUELING TWO VERY DIFFERENT NARRATIVES.

Avi Melamed:
The famous shot taken by the drone, and Sinwar throwing a stick at the drone fuels sentiments of glory and admiration in the Arab world to say–basically people are saying he was ‘fighting to his last breath against the Israeli occupiers’ and so on and so on.
Which is very disturbing, because there are voices in the Arab and the Palestinian world who actually say the opposite. They are saying, ‘Look, this man has inflicted a disaster upon his own brothers and sisters. This man lived violently. Died violently, humiliated, abandoned, and neglected while his own brothers and sisters have been suffering for the consequences of what he has done. What’s to glorify here?

SO, WILL SINWAR’S DEATH LEAD TO A CEASEFIRE? MELAMED SAYS POTENTIALLY, BUT NOT NECESSARILY. IT’S ALSO NOT CLEAR WHAT SINWAR’S DEATH COULD MEAN FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE. ISRAEL INVADED LEBANON TO DRIVE OUT HEZBOLLAH, AND WE’RE ALL STILL WAITING ON ISRAEL’S RESPONSE TO IRAN’S OCTOBER FIRST BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK.

BUT BOTH HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN SAID FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE CURRENT CONFLICT THEY WOULD SUPPORT HAMAS, AND ATTACK ISRAEL INCREMENTALLY,
FOR AS LONG AS THE WAR IN GAZA CONTINUED.
IF HAMAS INSTALLS A NEW LEADER WHO IS OPEN TO A CEASEFIRE, MELAMED THINKS THAT COULD BE THE OUT IRAN WAS LOOKING FOR.

Avi Melamed:
The bottom line of this whole mess currently, is that in the Arab world, the overwhelming narrative is actually saying the Axis of Resistance has been severely beaten. The Mullah regime has been severely beaten, and I can tell you that many people in the Arab world definitely shed no tear about it.
The more this Axis and the Mullah regime is weakened, the better are the odds for more stability in the region and the better are the odds for Israelis and Palestinians to move forward in a more positive trajectory.

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M RYAN ROBERTSON. FOR MORE OF OUR REPORTING ON THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL, HAMAS, AND IRAN’S AXIS OF RESISTANCE LOG ON TO SAN.COM OR DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP TODAY.