Russia is gearing up for another offensive against Ukraine later this year, according to CNN. Moscow has one clear advantage against Ukraine, with NATO intelligence estimating that Russia produces 250,000 artillery munitions per month, totaling approximately 3 million annually.
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The numbers by Russia are vastly greater than the U.S. and its European allies, who produce only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Ukraine, according to a European intelligence official who spoke with CNN.
The reported advantage by Russia comes at an inopportune time for Ukraine as it reportedly faces a munitions and manpower shortage.
Recently, Russia took the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, the capture of the city was largely credited to Russia’s advantage in munitions supply. Meanwhile, at least one expert told CNN that the war’s outcome could come down to munitions supply.
Russia is also ramping up production of missiles and tanks, according to its military. Although, intelligence officials said that most of the tanks are old and in poor working condition. Intelligence estimates around 2,700 tanks have been destroyed in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
However, the latest intelligence data indicates Russia has enough industrial capacity dedicated to weapons productions and it can keep the fight going for several years. Ukraine cannot afford to wait several years, not with its current supply of weapons.
In the face of shortages, European nations are stepping up on Ukraine’s behalf. In addition to multiple defense contractors moving ahead with plans to build factories in Ukraine, like Rheinmetall’s facility 155mm artillery shells. There are also multiple foreign leaders reportedly openly discussing the idea of sending troops to Ukraine as well.
Ukraine is in need of more weapons, and efforts in U.S. Congress to fund Ukrainian war efforts have stalled. However, experts said that if production starts up again quickly, and the U.S. passes funding for aid, there is still hope for Ukraine.
Russia’s transformation into a wartime economy may not be enough to meet its needs. U.S. and other Western officials told CNN that they do not expect Russia to make major gains on the battlefield in short term. They also say that Russian production capacity will likely reach its peak sometime next year.
