Leaked documents from Russia are shedding light on Moscow’s strategy for using nuclear weaponry. The leaked documents also revealed new insights into the Kremlin’s relationship with China, showing that Russia had mapped out potential conflict scenarios with its southern neighbor.
The Financial Times obtained the allegedly classified Russian military documents. There were 29 leaked files dated from 2008 to 2014, making all off them at least 10 years old. Despite the age of the files, they still contain significant information from an intelligence perspective.
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According to the Financial Times, the strategies outlined relate specifically to Russia using tactical nuclear weapons, which are designed to be used on the battlefield rather than Cold War-era mega bombs.
According to the documents, if Russia lost 20% of its ballistic missile submarine fleet — which is capable of firing nuclear cruise missiles — Moscow would consider firing tactical nukes at its enemies.
If Russia loses 30% of its nuclear-powered attack submarines or if several airfields go offline, Moscow may use tactical nukes.
However, Russia saying it would use nukes is not new. Russian state media has propaganda bragging about Moscow’s nuclear prowess. Since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he has touted the country’s nuclear ability to the point that some military leaders and experts are questioning how serious Putin is about using the alleged weaponry.
The documents show Russia was war-gaming possible conflict scenarios with China, including laying out examples of when a first-strike tactical nuclear option would be viable.
If China launched a ground assault, Russia determined a tactical nuclear strike would be an appropriate response against a second wave of Chinese troops.
However, in the time since the leaked documents were written, Moscow and Beijing have grown close — especially since the war in Ukraine began.
Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping now have what they call a “no limits” friendship. China holds the upper hand in the two country’s relationship, and its leaders have spoken multiple times about the need to avoid nuclear conflict.
