Russia war-gamed using nuclear weapons against China, leaked docs say

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

LEAKED DOCUMENTS FROM RUSSIA SHOW THE KREMLIN CONSIDERED A WIDE RANGE OF OPTIONS FOR HOW AND WHEN THE COUNTRY SHOULD USE ITS SUPPLY OF TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS.  ALSO, ICE IS COLD. FIRE IS HOT, AND THE SUN WILL REPORTEDLY COME UP TOMORROW.

SO, THE FINANCIAL TIMES GOT A LOOK AT SOME ALLEGEDLY CLASSIFIED RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCUMENTS, AND NOW THOSE LEAKED DOCS ARE SHEDDING MORE LIGHT ON MOSCOW’S STRATEGY FOR USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. FINANCIAL TIMES SAYS THE 29 LEAKED FILES ARE DATED FROM 2008 TO 2014, MAKING THEM ALL AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD. STILL, FROM AN INTELLIGENCE PERSPECTIVE, THE FILES CONTAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT INFORMATION.

NOW, WE HAVE QUITE AN INFORMATIVE SERIES AT SAN.COM DETAILING HOW AND WHY RUSSIA MIGHT USE NUKES IN UKRAINE, AND WHAT THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE MIGHT LOOK LIKE. WE ALSO BREAKDOWN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS….SO IF YOU WANT MORE INSIGHTS INTO THOSE, PLEASE CHECK OUT MY PAST REPORTING.

OKAY, BACK TO THE LEAKED DOCUMENTS. ACCORDING TO FT’S REPORTING –THE STRATEGIES OUTLINED PERTAIN SPECIFICALLY TO RUSSIA USING TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS–WHICH ARE DESIGNED TO BE USED ON THE BATTLEFIELD…AND NOT THE WORLD ENDING MEGA BOMBS FROM COLD-WAR ERA NIGHTMARES.

ACCORDING TO THE DOCS–IF RUSSIA LOST 20% OF ITS BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBMARINE FLEET–WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF FIRING NUCLEAR CRUISE MISSILES–MOSCOW MAY FIRE TACTICAL NUKES AT ITS ENEMIES.

IF IT LOSES 30% OF ITS NUCLEAR POWERED ATTACK SUBS–OR IF SEVERAL AIRFIELDS GO OFFLINE–MOSCOW MAY USE TACTICAL NUKES.

SO THE DOCS PUT SOME NUMBERS ON THE ISSUE, BUT RUSSIA SAYING IT WOULD USE NUKES IS NOTHING NEW. RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA IS FULL OF PROPAGANDA TOUTING MOSCOW’S NUCLEAR PROWESS. SINCE PUTIN’S FULL-SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE–HE’S RATTLED THE NUCLEAR SABER SO MANY TIMES MANY MILITARY LEADERS AND EXPERTS ARE QUESTIONING JUST HOW SERIOUS HE REALLY IS ABOUT PULLING THAT TRIGGER—OR PRESSING THAT BUTTON.

BUT, THE FINANCIAL TIMES REPORTING ON THE LEAKED DOCS DID REVEAL SOME NEW INSIGHTS INTO RUSSIA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA–AT LEAST HOW RUSSIA VIEWED IT 10 YEARS AGO.

THE DOCUMENTS SHOW RUSSIA WAS WARGAMING POSSIBLE CONFLICT SCENARIOS WITH ITS SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR…AND LAID OUT SOME EXAMPLES WHEN A FIRST-STRIKE TACTICAL NUCLEAR OPTION WOULD BE VIABLE. IF CHINA LAUNCHED A GROUND ASSAULT…RUSSIA DETERMINED A TACTICAL NUCLEAR STRIKE WOULD BE WARRANTED AGAINST A SECOND WAVE OF CHINESE TROOPS ACTING AS REINFORCEMENTS. IT’S A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A DOCTRINE KNOWN AS “ESCALATING TO DE-ESCALATE”–BASICALLY TURNING TO NUKES SO QUICKLY IT SHOCKS ENEMIES OUT OF WANTING TO FIGHT MORE.

IN THE TIME SINCE THE LEAKED DOCUMENTS WERE ALLEGEDLY WRITTEN, THOUGH MOSCOW AND BEIJING HAVE GROWN EXTREMELY CLOSE…ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WAR IN UKRAINE BROKE OUT. PUTIN AND CHINESE LEADER XI JINPING NOW HAVE WHAT THEY CALL A “FRIENDSHIP WITHOUT LIMITS.” CHINA HOLDS THE CLEAR UPPERHAND IN THAT RELATIONSHIP, AND ITS LEADERS HAVE SPOKEN SEVERAL TIMES ABOUT THE NEED TO AVOID NUCLEAR CONFLICT AT ALL COSTS.