How would mass EV adoption impact the environment? And is it feasible?

In the pursuit of climate goals, transitioning from gas-powered automobiles to electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a key strategy. But a closer examination reveals complexities surrounding the environmental benefits and feasibility of mass EV adoption.

“Even if millions of people buy battery-electric vehicles, automakers could still fall short of hitting goals set under the Paris Agreement on climate change,” said Vijay Subramanian, director of global CO2 compliance, cost and powertrain forecasting at S&P Global Mobility. “As the journey progresses toward achieving the ambitious objectives of the Paris Agreement, it becomes evident that relying solely on electrification likely will be insufficient due to the intricate challenges involved.”

The process of manufacturing EVs initially contributes significantly more emissions compared to traditional gas-powered cars. Studies indicate that up to 80% more emissions are generated during the production of an EV. It’s only after an EV has been driven approximately 15,000 miles that its carbon footprint begins to align with that of a conventional vehicle. That distance is equivalent to driving across the U.S. on Interstate 80 five times.

The decommissioning of EVs also poses environmental challenges, with the combined carbon outputs of manufacturing and deconstruction comparable to about 40% of the average American’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

“A lot of people think that a large-scale shift to EVs will mostly solve our climate problems in the passenger vehicle sector,” Alexandre Milovanoff, a sustainable development expert and policy analyst for the Canadian government, said. “I think a better way to look at it is this: EVs are necessary, but on their own, they are not sufficient.”

One of the primary contributors to EVs’ environmental footprint lies in the extraction and processing of raw materials, a process that generates up to 85% of the total greenhouse gases that these vehicles create.

China, controlling 90% of the electric vehicle supply chain, plays a central role here. Beijing’s relatively lax environmental standards have facilitated its dominance in the EV industry, making this supply chain the most environmentally harmful aspect of EV production.

While EVs eventually offset their initial emissions over the course of their operational lifespan, concerns persist regarding the scale of adoption required to make a substantial impact on climate goals. Researchers at the University of Toronto suggest that for the U.S. to achieve its 2050 climate targets, 90% of the nation’s vehicle fleet must be electric.

“Climate change mitigation strategies are often technology-oriented, and electric vehicles (EVs) are a good example of something believed to be a silver bullet,” the University of Toronto team said in its report. “Here we show that current U.S. policies are insufficient to remain within a sectoral CO₂ emission budget for light-duty vehicles, consistent with preventing more than 2 °C global warming. Closing the mitigation gap solely with EVs would require more than 350 million on-road EVs (90% of the fleet), half of national electricity demand and excessive amounts of critical materials to be deployed in 2050.”

Achieving such targets would necessitate a cessation of combustion engine vehicle sales as early as 2030. Projections from analysts at IHS Markit forecast that by 2050, only 60% of new U.S. vehicle sales will be EVs. That number contrasts with more conservative estimates suggesting less than a third of the American market will be EVs by that time.

The Biden administration has endorsed legislation aiming to bring nearly 100 million EVs onto U.S. roads by 2050. However, experts caution that this may fall short by more than half of what is necessary to meet climate targets. Even if the U.S. and other nations achieve their EV goals by 2050, doing so may not suffice to reach net-zero emissions objectives.