Israel-Hamas ceasefire in limbo: What comes next?

• The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is in limbo, with Phase One expired and Phase Two details undefined. Efforts are being made to extend Phase One to facilitate further hostage exchanges.
• Avi Melamed emphasizes disarming Hamas is crucial for both Israelis and Palestinians, as its continued military strength prevents lasting peace and stability.
• While a peace deal remains uncertain, Melamed suggests Hamas is more focused on managing its image than securing a clear victory, and international pressure may play a key role in determining the conflict’s outcome.

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The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is in a sort of limbo period. Phase One is expired, the details for Phase Two were supposed to be worked out by now, but aren’t. So, will there be a return to fighting in Gaza? Or should Israelis and Palestinians still hold out hope the ceasefire will turn into something more permanent?

For help addressing some of these questions, Straight Arrow News spoke with Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and hostage negotiator. SAN has spoken to him throughout the war in Gaza. He’s currently criss-crossing the United States on a speaking tour for his organization, Inside the Middle East.

The following is a conversation between Avi Melamed and Straight Arrow News’ Ryan Robertson. It has been for clarity and concision.

Ryan Robertson: All right, Avi, thanks once again for joining us. Lots happened since the last time we spoke. As far as I understand it, and correct me if I’m wrong, the Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal is still kind of in Phase One. Negotiators are trying to iron out next steps. Is that an accurate description?

Avi Melamed: Yes, that’s correct. I mean, formally, Phase One came to an end a couple of days ago, but there is now a kind of like an interim phase that was not originally planned in between Phase One and Phase Two. So now there are attempts to endure, sort of speaking, Phase One in order to try to facilitate another another phase of release of hostages in return of release of Palestinians that are imprisoned in Israel.

Ryan Robertson: Israel believes that there are 24 hostages still left alive, and Israel wants to extend Phase One, kind of like you said. Hamas wants to try to organize a deal where Israel pulls back from the border between Gaza and Egypt. Egypt had presented a peace deal that you roundly criticized because it did not disarm Hamas.

For those who don’t know, why is it so important for Israel that Hamas is disarmed completely before any kind of peace deal or ceasefire is signed?

Is Hamas still a threat?

Avi Melamed: It’s not only important to Israel, it’s no less important to the Palestinians and the Arabs and the world that Hamas will be disarmed.

As you accurately mentioned, I did write about the Palestinian proposal that was in a way kind of like dialoguing with Trump, President Trump’s statements regarding Gaza. The Arab states continue to play the same old rhetoric. In other words, they don’t really deal with the elephant in the room. The elephant in the room is Hamas.

The Palestinian Authority, the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas — he said more than once, very clearly, he said, “I’m not willing to accept a situation when there is more than one power that holds weapons.” So, and he definitely knows why, because Hamas eliminated the rule of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza Strip in 2007 using its weapon. And so as long as Hamas is not disarmed, the only thing that we could expect is the next round of violence.

Ryan Robertson: Would Palestinians in Gaza accept the rule of the Palestinian Authority again, even if they were disarmed?

Avi Melamed: In the end of the day, the issue goes back to the Palestinians in the most substantial manner, and that is the question whether the Palestinians are going to make an inner decision that they are departing Hamas’ path or not.

Though one could expect that, following the disaster Hamas has inflicted upon its own brothers and sisters in Gaza, as the Palestinian President himself said — He said to Hamas, “You have inflicted the biggest catastrophe ever upon the Palestinian people,” and he is right. One could have expected following this disastrous situation in Gaza, the Palestinians will actually kick Hamas out of the door. It’s not happening.

In fact, there is an inner Palestinian debate whether they should support Hamas or continue to support Hamas or not support Hamas.

So, in the wide perspective and in the long run, the major critical issue is the question whether the Palestinians will say to Hamas, “Your path is no longer something that we support and we want to take another path” or not.

Israel stopped flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza

Ryan Robertson: Israel is withholding some humanitarian aid right now as a way to try to force Hamas back to the negotiating table in more an open way, I guess, because they are still kind of negotiating.

Is that tactic a good one in your mind? I mean, you’re a former negotiator. Is withholding the humanitarian aid from civilians, is that a good tactic that Israel is employing? Would you employ that tactic? Or is that creating more support for Hamas within Gaza?

Avi Melamed: Well, I would associate it with the wider perspective and this is the Trump administration. It’s very clear that currently, at least the Israeli government feels that [the] Trump administration will be much more easy and receptive to some more harsh steps.

Look, roughly speaking, I would say that when you are doing something like that, in the end of the day, you have, of course, to calculate the ramifications. And it’s not only in the context of fueling the Palestinian anger on Israel.

But I would say that in a wider perspective, this is something that is more likely to be more counterproductive than productive because it’s kind of like calling for an enormous pressure. It’s going to isolate Israel more and more in international community. It’s going to play in a way to the hands of Hamas rhetoric.

So this is kind of like a tool that I will say, if you use that tool, you have to very, very carefully, meticulously kind of like calculate whether the outcomes of what you’re going to do are going to be much more counterproductive than productive.

The Trump effect

Ryan Robertson: You mentioned President Trump, you and I have talked about President Trump’s plan before too when he said the U.S. would take over Gaza. The Palestinians, they would be relocated. Maybe temporarily, but would be relocated.

The last couple of days, the Trump administration has kind of walked back that statement a little bit. President Trump had also tweeted out or posted a video on Truth Social, an AI-generated video with — I’m sure you saw it — gold statues of Trump, the belly dancing Hamas fighters.

Is the Trump White House and the rhetoric coming from the White House, is that productive to peace talks? Do you think that still is, I think the phrase you used before is at least it adds something new to the conversation and it’s moving it forward. How do you feel today with the last couple of weeks now behind us?

Avi Melamed: Look, I’m not surprised about this belly dancing and I don’t want to say necessarily if this is the most significant thing. It wasn’t really the most significant thing to start with in the sense that in the end of the day, President Trump basically says nobody is going to force Palestinians out of Gaza.

But the issue here is at the end of the day, when following Trump’s proposal or statement, I would put it this way: We saw this hustle bustle in the Arab world and then we saw this counter Egyptian plan or program that has been formally adopted by the leaders of the Arab world.

There has been a reaction to Trump, to [the] Trump administration, to that program and the reaction was that this is not sufficient. And rightly so, particularly because of the issue of the disarmament of Hamas. And so it seems to me right now that what we are watching is kind of like a tennis court or a ping pong table where they are basically throwing this problem from side to side.

What about the remaining hostages?

Ryan Robertson: I guess my last question for you is, are you hopeful that a peace deal — that will bring the 24 living hostages home and the bodies of those who remain in Gaza — are you hopeful that a deal will be made still or is that hope kind of dying?

Avi Melamed: There is a lot of space or room for significant concern about it, because it seems currently that we are kind of like in an impasse. However, I don’t exclude the possibility that there will be some sort of step or act that will break the circle, sort of speaking. And maybe lead to some sort of kind of a deal.

But again, the question is in the end of the day, whether there is going to be such an accumulative pressure on Hamas to the point that Hamas basically will really face no choice but other than conclude the deal. So, Hamas desperately to come forward with some sort of like achievement. The more the time goes by, it seems like that the probability of being able to come up with this victorious achievement that will justify all the disaster it has inflicted, it seems like that in course of time, that ability is kind of fading away.

And so, I would say that at this point, seems to me that Hamas in its inner calculation and inner discussion is more and more engaged about the question, “How do I come out of this whole thing in the less damaged image possible?” And not “How do I come as the most, you know, big winner of this whole thing?” Because in the context of the discussion of winning and losing, as you probably know, Hamas already has marked triumph and victory. Which by the way, many people in the Arab world and the Palestinians, of course, are saying, “What victory and what triumph exactly are you talking about?”

But the bottom line is, as long as Hamas exists and has the ability to continue to dictate the disastrous path that, unfortunately, it was able to do for the last 40 years, generously supported by the Iranians, as long as Hamas has the capacity, neither Israelis nor Palestinians has any kind of future ahead.

That has to be clear to everybody.

So the objective is not to eliminate Hamas because it’s not going to vanish. Hamas is going to stay around. The objective is to create a situation where Hamas is no longer able to continue to dictate its radical agenda. And one of the core components of that, a must condition, is to disarm Hamas.

If Hamas is not disarmed, there is no hope. Not for Israel and not for Palestinians.