[ryan robertson]

ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE REPORTS IRAN IS GEARING UP TO LAUNCH AN ATTACK ON ISRAEL FROM IRAQI TERRITORY, POTENTIALLY USING A COMBINATION OF DRONES AND BALLISTIC MISSILES. THOSE SAME SOURCES SUGGEST THE ATTACK COULD COME BEFORE THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

THE GOING THEORY IS IRAN MIGHT LAUNCH THE ATTACK FROM IRAQ TO AVOID A DIRECT RESPONSE FROM ISRAEL ON ITS OWN SOIL. BY USING IRAQI TERRITORY AND ITS ALLIED MILITIAS, LIKE THE ISLAMIC RESISTANCE IN IRAQ, WHICH PREVIOUSLY ATTACKED ISRAEL WITH DRONES, IRAN COULD MAKE IT HARDER FOR ISRAEL TO RETALIATE DIRECTLY AGAINST TARGETS WITHIN IRAN.

WHILE U.S. OFFICIALS SAY IRAN COULD QUICKLY MOVE FORWARD WITH THIS PLAN, THEY’RE NOT CERTAIN IF A FINAL DECISION TO LAUNCH THE STRIKE WAS MADE.

THE ATTACK WOULD REPORTEDLY BE A RESPONSE TO ISRAEL’S RECENT STRIKES ON IRANIAN MILITARY TARGETS.

OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS EACH SIDE RAMPED UP ITS ATTACKS. IN EARLY OCTOBER, IRAN LAUNCHED 180 BALLISTIC MISSILES AT TEL AVIV AND JERUSALEM, THAT PROMPTED A ROBUST ISRAELI RESPONSE–WITH THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE CONDUCTING A SERIES OF AIRSTRIKES ON IRANIAN MILITARY INSTALLATIONS, UTILIZING F-35 STEALTH JETS, REFUELING AIRCRAFT, AND DRONES.

THE ISRAELI STRIKES TARGETED AIR DEFENSES AND EQUIPMENT USED IN MISSILE PRODUCTION. IN THE DAYS AFTER THAT ATTACK, US AND ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES REPORTED THE WHOLE OF IRAN’S AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS WERE TAKEN OUT–AND MANY OF THE RADARS NEEDED TO LAUNCH MISSILES FROM IRAN’S OWN TERRITORY–WHICH COULD BE ANOTHER REASON THE MULLAH REGIME IS TRYING TO LAUNCH ITS LATEST ATTACK FROM OUTSIDE ITS OWN TERRITORY
IRANIAN LEADERS, INCLUDING SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, INITIALLY SAID HE DID NOT SEEK A WAR WITH ISRAEL AFTER HIS AIR DEFENSES AND RADARS WERE DESTROYED.

SINCE THEN, HE STARTED EMPHASIZING THE COUNTRY’S RIGHT TO RETALIATE, WITH OFFICIALS WARNING OF A “DEFINITIVE AND PAINFUL” RESPONSE.

THE CHIEF OF STAFF TO IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER, SAYS RETALIATION IS “CERTAIN” AND THAT IT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO “MAKE OUR ENEMY REGRET” ITS ACTIONS. IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS COMMANDER, HOSSEIN SALAMI, ALSO VOWED AN UNEXPECTED RESPONSE TO ISRAEL’S RECENT STRIKES.

ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU SAYS ISRAEL EXPANDED ITS CAPABILITY TO OPERATE WITHIN IRAN, ADDING THAT ISRAELI FORCES ARE NOW ABLE TO REACH CRITICAL SITES IN IRAN WHENEVER REQUIRED.