Renters say there’s a 1 in 3 chance they’ll ever own a home, lowest on record

• American renters say the chance of ever owning a home is at its lowest in at least a decade. Several factors are weighing on this portion of the American dream.
• The median price for a new home is $415,000, near the record highs reached in 2022.
• Housing availability is higher in 2025 compared to the last few years but remains below levels seen before 2021.

---

Full Story

American renters are increasingly giving up on their dream of ever owning a home. In just four years, renters have gone from giving themselves a better-than-50% chance of one day achieving homeownership to a less-than-34% chance.

That’s the result of the latest housing survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is the lowest rating in the survey’s history. While renters overwhelmingly still prefer the idea of owning a home, that dream is fading as home prices surge.

The highest chance of owning renters gave themselves in the past decade was in 2016 with a 56% chance.

More renters still want to own but don’t see it as probable

Despite the probability falling in recent years, 71.5% of renters would still prefer or strongly prefer owning a home. The number has increased slightly in the past decade from 68.5% in 2015. 

The most obvious factor weighing on renters who want to own a home is price. The median sale price for new homes in the U.S. was just over $415,000 in February 2025, slightly off the peak price hit in 2022. Home prices have jumped 45% since February 2015, when the median sale price was roughly $287,000.

Mortgage rates are also keeping prospective buyers out of the market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.65% for the week ending March 27, according to Freddie Mac. Historically speaking, these rates are considerably lower than they were in the early 1980s when a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage came with an 18% rate. But more recently, buyers had the luxury of locking in rates between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2020 and 2021. 

There’s a general rule of thumb about mortgage rates. For every one percentage point the mortgage rate increases, buyers lose 10% buying power. In other words, they need to buy a home that is 10% less expensive. When home prices keep rising, that compounds the issue of what’s available at a buyer’s price point.

Speaking of availability, it’s still not enough

The availability of homes on the market is also an issue. There are more homes available as of February 2025 than in the same month over the last four years, according to Realtor.com. Still, the number of available homes is well below levels prior to 2021. 

While home prices remain out of reach for many, renting brings its own financial burdens. According to the New York Fed survey, renters expect their rents to increase by an average of 11% over the next 12 months. The number is the highest it’s been in a decade outside of 2022, when inflation was nearing its peak.