Russian anti-aircraft system may have struck Azerbaijan passenger plane

Early indications suggest a Russian air defense system may have caused the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Dec. 25. According to U.S. officials and reports, the aircraft, diverted due to fog, was possibly struck by a surface-to-air missile from a Russian Pantsir-S system. The crash killed 38 of the 67 people onboard.

A commission, including representatives from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia, is investigating the crash. However, Kazakh authorities stated that Russian and Azerbaijani investigators would not conduct independent forensic analyses. Both black boxes have been recovered.

The flight, en route from Baku to Grozny, crashed while attempting an emergency landing in Kazakhstan. Russian authorities initially attributed the crash to a bird strike, but aviation experts have expressed doubt, citing damage consistent with shrapnel. Video footage shows the plane’s tail section peppered with holes, which experts suggest could indicate a missile strike during heightened military activity in the area.

Investigators are also examining claims that radar jamming interfered with the plane’s systems. FlightRadar24 noted that the aircraft had problems with altitude control during its final minutes, and independent experts observed wild fluctuations in its trajectory.

While the Kremlin urged caution in drawing conclusions, the crash has raised broader questions about safety in airspace affected by military activity. The investigation is ongoing, with officials and experts working to determine the exact cause.