During the Cold War, the term “arms race” regularly appeared on national news and across the front pages of magazines and newspapers, framing the race for firepower between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. While the term is not used as often today, the “arms race” between America and its near-peer adversaries, specifically China and Russia, remains a reality.
This is especially true regarding China and its efforts to build an advantage for any potential conflict. At the end of 2024, the People’s Republic of China allowed images to be published on social media showing what appeared to be two new sixth-generation aircraft. The unveiling coincided with the birthday of Mao Zedong, the founder and longtime leader of the PRC.
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Imagery was scant, consisting of a couple of shaky videos likely shot by amateurs or made to look that way. Most of the attention focused on the larger of the two aircraft, dubbed the JH-36, which is about 30% bigger than the 70-foot-long J-20 tailing it in the video.
The JH-36 does not have a tail. The flying wing delta design is inherently stealthier and can give the plane a longer range, but at the cost of maneuverability. The JH-36 has internal weapons bays and three engines, but it is not clear if it is a piloted craft or unmanned. The two-seat J-20 may actually be carrying the pilot of the JH-36.
The other stealth aircraft revealed by the PLAAF was a smaller plane featuring a lambda design. The video never showed a top view, so it is unknown if there is a pilot inside or if it is a drone.
There are many unanswered questions and much speculation, but one thing is clear when talking with some American pilots and military experts.
“It’s nothing original,” said Matthew “Whiz” Buckley, a former F/A-18 fighter pilot and graduate of the Navy’s Top Gun program. “Everything China has, they’ve stolen. From our submarine technology in the ’90s under Bill Clinton to the Joint Strike Fighter. If it’s not nailed down, they steal it. Now they can change puppy and call it small dog, but it’s still 99.9% our technology.”
Buckley is far from the first person to say China is stealing military technology. However, stealing a design is different from building an actual sixth-generation stealth aircraft.
“Do you think that these planes can maintain stealth?” asked Ryan Robertson, host of Weapons and Warfare.
“I didn’t. But again, let’s go back to spy versus spy,” Buckley responded. “Is that their no-s— frontline fighter, or is that just the demo? Are they throwing something out there with some screws hanging out just so you and I can jump on a podcast? So, you know, you never know what they’re showing. So it could be, you know, they’re doing that on purpose, but let’s take it at face value.”
“When they hack into our stuff and steal these things, is it our older stuff?” Robertson asked. “I mean, the F-22 tech, it’s an amazing fighter, but the technology that made the F-22 is decades old at this point. Should we be worried that China is now going to be able to dominate the skies and move U.S. forces out of the way and throw their weight around?”
“Let me give you the immediate answer that as a Top Gun graduate, I’ll tell you, yeah, you should always be worried that your enemy is going to outgun you,” Buckley explained. “That’s the whole purpose of Top Gun, right? My alleged combat sorties over southern Iraq were without a doubt a joke. They were the most boring flying I ever did in my career. The scariest part was landing back aboard the boat at night, low on fuel. But that means we’re succeeding in our training.
“So we’ve had about two decades of underestimating our opponents, haven’t we? Dudes in Toyota trucks and flip-flops kicked us out of Afghanistan, and Iraq’s a complete, you know, s—hole right now. And then now look at Yemen. We got the same dudes in flip-flops and Toyota trucks closing the Red Sea and ripping off attacks at the fleet. So let me lead with that. Never underestimate your enemy. Assume that he has stolen absolutely everything, iterated and made it better.”
“Even though its capabilities are speculative, it still represents a significant leap in China’s aviation technology,” said Eric Brown, a former Green Beret with decades of military experience. “And then they’re not just copycatting us anymore. They’re actually trying to surpass us with their tech. So they’re looking at, in my opinion, and from a defense analysis viewpoint, China’s trying to take over the superiority of the air the same way they’re trying to do it in the sea.”
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Brown is not an aviation expert, but he is knowledgeable about tactics.
“I would argue China’s priority is to become the next world hegemon,” Brown continued. “And they’re putting all their money into the defense and being able to project power. At the same time, I think over the past couple of years, we focused more on not those type of initiatives. So cutting military, cutting innovation and looking more at people and feelings, just get right down to it. Instead of, yeah, you gotta stay strong, right?”
If we assume China is stealing everything almost as quickly as it is designed, how does America stay strong and ahead of its adversaries? Better cybersecurity is one way, but also training. As Buckley said, his training was harder than his actual combat sorties.
“It’s the man in the box. When it comes down to air-to-air engagement, it ain’t the box. It’s the man in the box. And for all their Gucci bells and whistles and s—, they just don’t have the experience that we do. You know, our F-35s are lighting up Yemen. Maybe they lit up Iran. We’ll find out in a couple of years in a book, maybe. Our folks are out there on the tip of the spear,” Buckley concluded.
Access the full Weapons and Warfare episode here.
Access all Weapons and Warfare podcast episodes here.
Tags: Air Force, F-22 Raptor jets, F-35, Military Defense, Military Drills, People’s Republic of China, Soviet Union
[Ryan Robertson]
DURING THE COLD WAR–THE TERM “ARMS RACE” WAS REGULARLY BE HEARD ON THE NATIONAL NEWS, OR SPLASHED ACROSS THE FRONT PAGES OF MAGAZINES AND NEWSPAPERS, FRAMING THE RACE FOR FIREPOWER BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE SOVIET UNION.
WHILE IT’S NOT USED AS OFTEN AS IT USED TO BE, THE “ARMS RACE” BETWEEN AMERICA AND ITS NEAR PEER ADVERSARIES, SPECIFICALLY CHINA AND RUSSIA, IS STILL VERY MUCH A REAL THING. ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA AND ITS FULL-COURT PRESS TO BUILD AN ADVANTAGE FOR ANY POTENTIAL CONFLICT.
RIGHT AT THE END OF 2024–THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ALLOWED IMAGES TO BE PUBLISHED ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWING WHAT APPEAR TO BE TWO NEW 6TH-GENERATION AIRCRAFT. THE UNVEILING COINCIDED WITH THE BIRTHDAY OF MAO ZEDONG–THE FOUNDER AND LONGTIME LEADER OF THE PRC.
IMAGERY IS SCANT. REALLY JUST A COUPLE OF SHAKY VIDEOS PROBABLY SHOT BY AMATEURS…OR AT LEAST MADE TO LOOK LIKE IT.
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WENT TO THE LARGER OF THE TWO CRAFT–DUBBED THE JH-36, WHICH IS A FAIRLY LARGE PLANE. IT’S ABOUT 30 PERCENT BIGGER THAN THE 70 FOOT LONG J-20 TAILING IT IN THE VIDEO.
SPEAKING OF TAILS–THE JH-36 DOESN’T HAVE ONE. THE FLYING WING DELTA DESIGN IS INHERENTLY STEALTHIER–AND CAN GIVE THE PLANE A LONGER RANGE–BUT AT THE COST OF MANEUVERABILITY.
THE JH-36 HAS INTERNAL WEAPONS BAYS AND THREE ENGINES…BUT IT’S NOT TOTALLY CLEAR IF IT’S A PILOTED CRAFT OR UNMANNED. THE TWO SEAT J-20 MAY ACTUALLY BE CARRYING THE PILOT OF THE JH-36.
THE OTHER STEALTH AIRCRAFT THE PLAAF REVEALED WAS A SMALLER PLANE FEATURING A LAMBDA DESIGN. THE VIDEO NEVER SHOWS A TOP VIEW SO AGAIN, WE DON’T KNOW IF THERE’S A PILOT INSIDE–OR IF THIS IS A DRONE.
THERE ARE A LOT OF UNANSWERED QUESTIONS AND SPECULATION…BUT WHEN YOU TALK WITH SOME AMERICAN PILOTS AND MILITARY EXPERTS ONE THING IS CLEAR
[Matthew “Whiz” Buckley, Former F/A-18 Pilot, Top Gun Graduate]
“It’s nothing original. Everything China has, they’ve stolen from our submarine technology in the nineties under Bill Clinton to the Joint Strike Fighter. If it’s not nailed down, they steal it. So it’s essentially a copy and paste. Now they can change puppy and call it small dog, but it’s still 99.9 % our technology.”
[Ryan Robertson]
THAT’S MATTHEW BUCKLEY–CALLSIGN WHIZ. HE’S A FORMER F/A-18 FIGHTER PILOT, GRADUATE OF THE NAVY’S TOPGUN PROGRAM…AND FAR FROM THE FIRST PERSON TO SAY CHINA IS STEALING MILITARY TECHNOLOGY.
BUT STEALING A DESIGN IS DIFFERENT THAN BUILDING AN ACTUAL 6TH GENERATION STEALTH AIRCRAFT. .
[Ryan Robertson]
“Do you think that these planes can maintain stealth?
[Matthew “Whiz” Buckley]
“I didn’t. But again, let’s go back to spy versus spy. Is that their no s— frontline fighter or is that just the demo? Are they throwing something out there with some screws hanging out just so you and I can jump on a podcast. So, you know, you never know what they’re showing. So it could be, you know, they’re doing that on purpose, but you know, let’s take it at face value. It really doesn’t. You know, years ago, you know, when I visited a brother of mine, Shrek, it was a F-35 guy going through the rag up there in Buford, you you could barely get near the airplane and put your hand on it, right? Because the materials that cover these planes are that secret. So just from a distance and looking at the photos, it didn’t appear. Because as you said, the radar absorbing stealth materials is, you know, the biggest part of the stealth technology, either to absorb you know signals or to to refract them or to even scramble them, right?
[Ryan Robertson]
“When they hack into our stuff and steal these things, is it our older stuff? mean, the F-22 tech, it’s an amazing fighter, but the technology that made the F-22 is decades old at this point. … I guess my question is, should we be worried that China is now going to be able to dominate the skies and, and move US forces out of the way and, you know, throw their weight around?
[Matthew “Whiz” Buckley]
“Let me give you the immediate answer that as a Top Gun graduate, I’ll tell you, yeah, you should always be worried that your enemy is going to outgun you. That’s the whole purpose of Top Gun, right? My alleged combat sorties over Southern Iraq were without a doubt a joke. They were the most boring flying I ever did in my career. The scariest part was landing back aboard the boat at night, low on fuel. But that means we’re succeeding in our training, right? If we go anywhere in the world and we’re surprised or we’re outgunned like, oh my God, then we failed. So we’ve had about two decades of underestimating our opponents, haven’t we? Dudes in Toyota trucks and flip-flops kicked us out of Afghanistan and Iraq’s a complete, you know, s—hole right now. And then now look at Yemen. We got the same dudes in flip-flops and Toyota trucks closing the Red Sea and rippling off attacks at the fleet. So let me lead with that. Never underestimate your enemy. Assume that he has stolen absolutely everything, iterated and made it better.”
[Eric Brown, Former Green Beret]
“Even though its capabilities are speculative, it still represents a significant leap in China’s aviation technology. And then they’re not just copycatting us anymore. They’re actually trying to surpass us with their tech. So they’re looking at, in my opinion, and from a defense analysis viewpoint, China’s trying to take over the superiority of the air the same way they’re trying to do it in the sea.”
[Ryan Robertson]
THAT’S ERIC BROWN A FORMER GREEN BERET WITH DECADES OF MILITARY EXPERIENCE. WHILE NOT AN AVIATION EXPERT, HE IS WHEN IT COMES TO TACTICS.
[Eric Brown, Former Green Beret]
“I would argue China’s priority is to become the next world hegemon. And they’re putting all their money into the defense and being able to project power. At the same time, I think over the past couple of years, we focused more on not those type of initiatives. So cutting military, cutting innovation, and looking more at people and feelings just get right down to it. Instead of yeah, you gotta stay strong, right?”
[Ryan Robertson]
SO, IF WE ASSUME CHINA IS STEALING EVERYTHING ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS IT’S DESIGNED–HOW DOES AMERICA STAY STRONG AND AHEAD OF ITS ADVERSARIES? WELL, BETTER CYBER SECURITY FOR ONE–BUT ALSO TRAINING. LIKE WHIZ SAID EARLIER, HIS TRAINING WAS HARDER THAN HIS ACTUAL COMBAT SORTIES.
[Matthew “Whiz” Buckley]
It’s the man in the box. When it comes down to air-to-air engagement, it ain’t the box. It’s the man in the box. And for all their Gucci bells and whistles and s—, they just don’t have the experience that we do. You know, our F-35s are lighting up Yemen. Maybe they lit up Iran. We’ll find out in a couple of years in a book, maybe. Our folks are out there on the tip of the spear.”
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