The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is nearing its end, will peace hold?

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Ryan Robertson Anchor/Reporter

By Ryan Robertson (Anchor/Reporter)

The 42-day ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is nearing its end, with three possible outcomes: an extension, a transition to Phase 2 or a return to fighting. Some signs suggest that Israel may favor resuming combat.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sent negotiators to Cairo, but reports indicate that Israel is preparing for a large-scale military operation in Gaza, involving 50,000 troops and aerial bombardments.
Humanitarian zones in Gaza would be expanded, with 2 million Palestinian civilians relocated until Israel believes Hamas is eradicated. The White House has stated it will support Israel’s decision.

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The 42-day first phase of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is expiring soon. There are essentially three options for what happens next: the first phase is extended, negotiators work out the details for a second phase or there may be a return to fighting in Gaza. Right now, it looks like the third option could win out.

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Ongoing negotiations

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a delegation to negotiate with Hamas representatives in Cairo. The two sides are working through mediators from Egypt and Qatar.

The sense on the ground is that Netanyahu wants an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire, which saw the release of 33 hostages in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. However, eight of those 33 hostages were already dead.

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Israel believes there are still 59 hostages in Gaza, half of whom are also thought to be dead.

Extension vs. return to fighting

If the first phase of the ceasefire were extended, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would not have to fully withdraw from Gaza, which is one of the conditions for entering Phase 2.

However, there are also signs that Israel may have no intention of continuing the ceasefire, instead favoring a return to active combat.

Many top security officials in the Israeli government who opposed deeper military actions in Gaza have been replaced. Netanyahu recently told a group of graduating military cadets that Israel was ready to return to intensive combat at any moment, and that operational plans were in place.

Military plans for renewed combat

Sources within the Israeli government say that incoming IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir is developing a plan to restart the war in Gaza within four to six weeks. The fighting would look different this time, with Israel reportedly sending in 50,000 troops in total.

The conflict would begin with aerial bombardments — potentially using some of the 2,000-pound bombs released to Israel by the Trump administration. After the Israeli Air Force finishes its strikes, ground forces would be sent into northern, central and southern Gaza simultaneously in a coordinated maneuver.

Humanitarian zones in Gaza will reportedly be expanded, and the 2 million Palestinian civilians still in Gaza would be relocated to these zones until Israel determines that Hamas is completely eradicated.

The White House has stated that it will back whatever move Israel decides to make.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, ceasefire, Donald Trump, Egypt, Gaza, hostage, Israel, Israel Defense Forces, Joe Biden, Middle East, Palestine, War

[Ryan Robertson]

THE 42-DAY LONG FIRST PHASE OF THE CEASEFIRE BETWEEN HAMAS AND ISRAEL IS EXPIRING SOON. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE OPTIONS FOR WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: PHASE ONE IS EXTENDED, NEGOTIATORS WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR A PHASE TWO, OR–THERE’S A RETURN TO FIGHTING IN GAZA. AND RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE OPTION THREE COULD WIN OUT.

ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU DID SEND A DELEGATION TO NEGOTIATE WITH HAMAS REPRESENTATIVES IN CAIRO. THE TWO SIDES ARE WORKING THROUGH MEDIATORS FROM EGYPT AND QATAR, AND THE SENSE ON THE GROUND IS NETANYAHU WANTS AN EXTENSION OF THE FIRST PHASE OF THE CEASEFIRE–WHICH SAW THE RELEASE OF 33 HOSTAGES IN EXCHANGE FOR ALMOST 2000 PALESTINIAN PRISONERS. EIGHT OF THOSE 33 HOSTAGES WERE DEAD, THOUGH.

ISRAEL THINKS THERE ARE 59 HOSTAGES STILL LEFT IN GAZA. HALF OF WHOM ARE ALSO BELIEVED TO BE DEAD.

IF PHASE ONE OF THE CEASEFIRE DEAL WERE EXTENDED THE ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCE WOULDN’T HAVE TO FULLY WITHDRAW FROM GAZA. WHICH IS ONE OF THE CONDITIONS OF PHASE 2.

BUT THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS ISRAEL MAY HAVE NO INTENTIONS OF CONTINUING THE CEASEFIRE, AND INSTEAD FAVORS A RETURN TO FIGHTING. MANY OF THE TOP SECURITY OFFICIALS IN THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT WHO WERE OPPOSED TO DEEPER ACTIONS IN GAZA WERE REPLACED, AND NETANYAHU TOLD A GROUP OF GRADUATING MILITARY CADETS THAT ISRAEL WAS READY TO RETURN AT ANY MOMENT TO INTENSIVE COMBAT AND THAT OPERATIONAL PLANS ARE READY.

SOURCES WITHIN THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT SAY THE INCOMING IDF CHIEF OF STAFF, EYAL ZAMIR, IS DEVELOPING A PLAN TO RESTART THE WAR IN GAZA IN FOUR TO SIX WEEKS. THE FIGHTING WOULD LOOK DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND, THOUGH, WITH ISRAEL REPORTEDLY SENDING IN 50,000 TROOPS IN TOTAL. THE FIGHTING WOULD BEGIN WITH AERIAL BOMBARDMENTS–POTENTIALLY USING SOME OF THE 2000 POUND BOMBS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION RELEASED TO ISRAEL. AFTER THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE IS DONE, GROUND FORCES WOULD BE SENT INTO NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHER GAZA ALL AT ONCE IN A COORDINATED MANEUVER.

HUMANITARIAN ZONES IN GAZA WILL REPORTEDLY BE EXPANDED AND THE TWO MILLION PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS STILL IN GAZA WOULD BE RELOCATED TO THOSE ZONES UNTIL ISRAEL FEELS HAMAS IS COMPLETELY IRRADICATED.

THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS IT WILL BACK WHATEVER MOVE ISRAEL MAKES.

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