Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil may be too little, too late

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

RUSSIA’S OIL INDUSTRY IS UNDER ATTACK. LITERALLY. UKRAINE IS USING HOME-MADE DRONES TO STRIKE RUSSIAN OIL FACILITIES. IT’S A BIG ENOUGH PROBLEM PUTIN BANNED THE EXPORT OF REFINED FUELS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW MONTHS–AND RUSSIA, THE WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST PETROLEUM PRODUCING NATION–IS NOW ACTUALLY IMPORTING SOME REFINED PRODUCTS FROM BELARUS.

OUTMANNED AND OUTGUNNED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE WAR, UKRAINE IS  RELYING ON A HOST OF UNCONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND TACTICS TO CONDUCT ITS ASYMMETRIC FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIA.

Shoemaker: The short answer is, it’s a smart move by the Ukrainians. And Ukrainians recognize that Russian oil and gas production in many ways is really their center of gravity. It’s the mechanism by which the Russians are able to continue warfare and to continue attacking Ukraine,

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

MATT SHOEMAKER IS A FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICER WITH EXPERTISE ON RUSSIA. HE SAYS 50% OF MOSCOW’S REVENUES COME FROM OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION. IN ITS EFFORTS TO TAKE DOWN RUSSIA’S CASH COW– UKRAINE ATTACKED MORE THAN A DOZEN SITES INCLUDING STORAGE DEPOTS, TERMINALS AND REFINERIES SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR. THE CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF THOSE STRIKES MEANS RUSSIA’S REFINING CAPACITY IS DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14%.

REFINING CAPACITY DOESN’T IMPACT CRUDE OIL SALES, THOUGH…AND RUSSIA IS STILL SELLING PLENTY OF THAT TO CHINA AND INDIA.

Shoemaker: But in the long term, the longer this goes on, the harder it’s going to be for the Russians, for sure.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

THE MONEY MOSCOW GETS FROM OIL AND GAS SALES IS USED TO HIRE AND TRAIN MORE SOLDIERS, BUILD NEW WEAPONS AND ARMAMENTS DOMESTICALLY–OR BUY THEM FROM THE FEW TRADE PARTNERS RUSSIA HAS LEFT–LIKE NORTH KOREA AND IRAN.

SO, CUTTING INTO A MAJOR SOURCE OF REVENUE FOR RUSSIA SHOULD IMPACT ITS ABILITY TO REARM AND RESUPPLY. THE REFINERIES UKRAINE IS TARGETING PRODUCE GASOLINE, SURE…BUT THEY ALSO PRODUCE DIESEL AND HIGH-OCTANE FUELS. YOU KNOW..THAT STUFF THAT POWERS MOST MILITARY VEHICLES AND AIRCRAFT.

SOME OF THE REFINERIES AND STORAGE DEPOTS TARGETED BY UKRAINIAN DRONES ARE HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY FROM THE FRONTLINES…MEANING THEY FIRST NEED TO FLY THROUGH RUSSIAN AIRSPACE…WHICH IN THEORY, SHOULD BE PROTECTED BY AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.

Robertson: Russia needs to defend these facilities, there’s so many of them, can they defend all of them and still defend their troops at the frontline?

Shoemaker: Short answer, no. Longer answer is so much with regards to what the Russian government is claiming at this point in terms of its own activities, all of it is classified, including their economic output. With regards to their oil and gas industry, all of that is now state secret sort of stuff. So anything that comes out of the Kremlin, in terms of what they claim it is, you know, that you’re going to have to take a very heavy pinch of salt along with it. Now, the reason I bring that up is because, yes, on the one hand, what they could do is they could start moving air defense systems away from the front lines. That’s an assumption that we’re making that they would, they would move that. There might be some very old legacy air defense systems that are in storage, for example, that they could possibly draw from if those are still there.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

WHILE RUSSIA MAY INDEED HAVE OLDER “LEGACY” AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO DEPLOY–SHOEMAKER SAYS HE ISN’T CONFIDENT THEY’D BE ABLE TO STOP UKRAINIAN DRONES.

WHICH ARE GETTING MORE POWERFUL AND NOW HAVE MUCH LONGER RANGES THAN THEY DID AT THE START OF THE WAR. THIS IS AN IMAGE OF TWO NEW TYPES OF DRONES UKRAINE BUILT DOMESTICALLY–BASICALLY SMALL PLANES PACKED WITH EXPLOSIVES. UKRAINE USED ONE OF THESE STYLES OF DRONES TO HIT A RUSSIAN DRONE FACTORY IN TATARSTAN…AN AREA EAST OF MOSCOW AND HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY FROM UKRAINE.

SHOEMAKER SAYS WHILE THE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN REFINERIES ARE CERTAINLY PROVING FRUITFUL–THE TECHNOLOGY TO MAKE THE ATTACKS POSSIBLE MIGHT HAVE COME TO LATE.

Shoemaker: This would have been certainly much more useful earlier on in the campaign. At this point, I don’t know if you saw the report that President Zelensky is lowering the age of draftees for the Ukrainian army. That’s certainly never a good situation. When you have to do that. That’s certainly sending a signal that they’re running out of men.

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

THE DRAFT AGE IN UKRAINE WAS 27…PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY PROPOSED LOWERING IT TO 25. IT’S EXPECTED RUSSIA WILL CONSCRIPT ANOTHER 300,000 PEOPLE INTO ITS MILITARY BY JUNE IN ANTICIPATION OF A LARGE SUMMER OFFENSIVE.