What the ‘Waffle House Index’ is telling us about Hurricane Milton

Craig Nigrelli

AS HURRICANE MILTON INCHES CLOSER TO FLORIDA… THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ARE EVACUATING THEIR HOMES – WHILE MORE ARE HUNKERING DOWN WITH THE SUPPLIES THEY NEED TO RIDE OUT THE STORM AND DEAL WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS. 

SO – HOW DO PEOPLE KNOW **WHEN** TO STAY AND WHEN TO LEAVE?

FOR MANY SOUTHERNERS… THE ANSWER MIGHT BE AT THEIR LOCAL WAFFLE HOUSE RESTAURANT. 

IF THE WAFFLE HOUSE STAYS OPEN – PEOPLE OFTEN TAKE THAT AS A SIGN A STORM IS NOT LIKELY TO DEVASTATE THEIR AREA.

BUT IF THE POPULAR BREAKFAST CHAIN CLOSES DOWN… YOU NEED TO LEAVE – AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE WAFFLE HOUSE INDEX.

THE WAFFLE HOUSE INDEX IS A REAL, THOUGH NOT SCIENTIFICALLY BACKED MEASURE OF HOW BAD A STORM IS.

AND IT’S NOT JUST LOCALS WHO USE IT – FEMA DOES TOO, AS A WAY TO IDENTIFY COMMUNITIES MOST IN NEED OF IMMEDIATE HELP AFTER A STORM.

TAKE HURRICANE HELENE FOR EXAMPLE.

THAT STORM BARRELED THROUGH SIX STATES NEARLY TWO WEEKS AGO – CAUSING MASS DEVASTATION.

IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA – WHICH BORE THE BRUNT OF HELENE’S IMPACTS – ABOUT TWO DOZEN WAFFLE HOUSE RESTAURANTS ARE STILL CLOSED… AND SEVERAL OTHERS ARE ONLY SERVING A LIMITED MENU.

WAFFLE HOUSE HAS MORE THAN 19-HUNDRED LOCATIONS IN THE U-S… MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC – AND THE CHAIN, WHICH NORMALLY STAYS OPEN 24/7, 365 DAYS A YEAR, IS KNOWN FOR BEING WELL-PREPARED FOR DISASTERS AND EITHER STAYING OPEN THROUGH THEM OR REOPENING QUICKLY AFTER.

IT HAS A LIMITED MENU READY TO GO FOR WHEN THERE ARE FOOD SHORTAGES AND POWER OUTAGES… AND PUTS TOGETHER SO-CALLED “WAFFLE HOUSE JUMP TEAMS” TO QUICKLY REOPEN RESTAURANTS AS SOON AS IT’S SAFE TO AFTER A DISASTER.

WAFFLE HOUSE HAS BEEN SO GOOD AT PREDICTING HOW BAD A STORM WILL BE, IN FACT, THAT IN 20-11, THEN-FEMA ADMINISTRATOR CRAIG FUGATE CREATED THE TERM “WAFFLE HOUSE INDEX.”

THE WAFFLE HOUSE INDEX HAS THREE LEVELS:

GREEN – MEANING THE RESTAURANT HAS SUSTAINED LITTLE OR NO DAMAGE AND HAS POWER AND ITS FULL MENU…

YELLOW – WHICH MEANS ITS ON A LIMITED MENU EITHER BECAUSE THE RESTAURANT IS RUNNING OUT OF FOOD OR HAS LIMITED POWER…

AND RED – WHEN A RESTAURANT IS CLOSED BECAUSE OF SEVERE DAMAGE OR FLOODING.

BECAUSE WAFFLE HOUSE ALREADY HAS A PLAN IN PLACE FOR POWER OUTAGES AND LIMITED SUPPLIES THE INDEX **RARELY** REACHES RED.

SO, WHAT IS THE WAFFLE HOUSE INDEX TELLING US ABOUT HURRICANE MILTON?

THINGS AREN’T LOOKING GREAT FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA DIRECTLY IN MILTON’S PATH… WITH DOZENS OF LOCATIONS CLOSING DOWN TO WEATHER OUT THE STORM.