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A 2020 peace agreement aimed to settle major disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia that originated in 1918. But on Sept. 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive military operation against Armenian forces in defiance of the 2020 agreement.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan argues that great powers are at play in this seemingly far-off conflict, that Russia was using Armenia to further its own interests against Azerbaijan, and that an Azerbaijani response — and victory — was inevitable. He warns us, however, that this is probably not the end of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict.
Excerpted from Peter’s Sept. 22 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Today, we’re looking at some of the recent developments and shifting dynamics in the South Caucasus. The assault on Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be a tidy victory for Azerbaijan, but there’s more at play here.
As Azerbaijan emerges as a regional power and adds to its economic and strategic advantages, Armenia is quickly realizing that Russia isn’t there to protect them. Armenia is grasping at straws for protection to avoid being entirely landlocked and cut off from the world. Some of Armenia’s adjustments would functionally end the relationship with Russia.
With all the movement in the region, I suspect this won’t be the last time we chat about Armenia and Azerbaijan.
