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Governments, economists, scientists, and businesses all need statistical information to understand the past and make sense of the future. Without trustworthy data from other countries, it’s difficult for global entities to make informed decisions about trade, war, monetary policy, and healthcare. China’s lack of transparency around the COVID-19 crisis may be the perfect example of this. Now, as Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains, with populations in decline and deglobalization on the upswing, it’s going to get even more difficult to get accurate statistics.
Excerpted from Peter’s Mar. 13 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
To my fellow nerds reading along … this is your trigger warning. Today we’re talking about BAD DATA. Sorry for the dramatics, but I’m sure many of you share my frustration when you can’t find the correct numbers for that forecast you’re working on or, even worse, the data you used in your model is falsified.
Unfortunately for us, this problem is only going to get worse. We know that the numbers coming out of Russia and China haven’t been “trustworthy” for years, but at least we could check most of it. At least now we don’t have to worry about data manipulation because both countries decided they wouldn’t collect or report it.
The increasing struggles of data reporting aren’t isolated to autocracies either. As the global trading system breaks down, most of the world will be hit with paralyzing inflation and trying to track it would be a fool’s errand. Until the gaping vulnerabilities left in the global trade system are patched, this will continue raging on.
Some countries will fare better than others, but no one is getting off scot-free. The modern world’s economic model is crumbling, and someone will have to figure out what we all do next.
