Commentary

What will happen if Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov dies?


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Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a staunch ally of President Vladimir Putin, has recently become the subject of serious health-related rumors. The Kremlin-backed Kadyrov, known for providing a substantial number of troops for Russia’s war in Ukraine, is suspected to be hospitalized in a coma.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan breaks down the history of Chechen leadership, and explains how, with its “psychopathic” leader’s health in question, a future Chechen civil war cannot be ruled out.

An excerpt from the Sept. 25 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” Newsletter:

Today, we’re looking at Chechnya’s tumultuous history with Russia and what the future might hold. After two wars, a few decades of nominal Russian control and ruthless leadership, the tides might be turning for Chechnya.

That ruthless leader I mentioned, Ramzan Kadyrov, hasn’t quite set the Chechens up for success. However, as his health comes into question, so does the future of Russia’s role in Chechnya.

If Kadyrov kicks it, several complications arise for the Russians. There’s no succession plan, the flow of information could be cut off, regional allegiances could shift, and with the ongoing war in Ukraine…things could get spicy.

While it may seem like all of this is contingent upon Kadyrov’s death, most of it is inevitable. Sure, Kadyrov could help speed things along, but Chechnya (and this region as a whole) has plenty of dynamism and volatility in its future.