My final predictions for the 2024 US elections

Well, this is it. It’s been a while. We’ve been waiting for this for a while, but finally, we are on the precipice of the 2024, election. I want a bottom line my final predictions, and some of them may be less titillating than others, because it’s just what the facts tell us and then talk a little bit about the next couple of weeks. So bottom line my prediction today is that Democrats take the house by a very small margin, that Democrats lose the Senate and Republicans take the Senate by the slimmest to a moderate margin, depending on how some of these races go. And I don’t even think it’s worth making a prediction when it comes to presidential it is a coin flip. It is a coin flip. This race is tighter, particularly in the battleground states, than any we have seen. If what you want is an optimistic case for Kamala Harris, I could provide one to you. If what you want is an optimistic case for Donald Trump, I could provide one to you there as well. And at this point, it’s going to be close, and we will know very soon the real questions are with regard to the repercussions of this election now when it comes to major legislation, at least over the next two years, on the assumption that we have a divided Congress, Democrats controlling the House and Republicans controlling the Senate, it is going to be very difficult to pass extraordinarily one sided major legislation. There will likely have to be some level of compromise in order to do it. One example comes with tax policy. It’s very popular with tax policy to say, here’s what Kamala Harris’s plan would do, and here’s what Donald Trump’s plan would do. But of course, that assumes that they are able to pass their plans as designed, which almost never happens, even if you have both houses of Congress. So on the one hand, Kamala Harris is taxes. I believe I saw a report would raise the effective tax rate of the very richest Americans 14% whereas if Trump gets his way, the very richest Americans would see a significant reduction in taxes. If Democrats control the House and Republicans control the Senate, neither one of those plans is going to pass. It’s going to be negotiated. The critical things, in my view, with regard to taxes are that there are provisions from the 2017 tax reform that Trump did that are set to expire in 2025

The big ones are what happens with the salt cap deduction capped at $10,000 by Trump, and what happens with the Q bid qualified business interest deduction. Both of these have affected me, and I know many people that they’ve affected and so I, like many Americans were, I’m waiting around to see what happens in this election, and then what happens when it comes to taxes. So this is sort of like the legislative approach, divided Congress. There’s going to be compromise, but we have to step back from that. There is an inflection point here in this election. If Kamala Harris wins, we are likely seeing the nail in the coffin of Maga Trumpism. Trump won in 2016

thanks to about 100,000 votes in three states. Electorally, of course, since then, Republicans underperformed the 2018 midterms. Trump lost the 2020 election. The red wave of 2022 never materialized, and in fact, Democrats extended their majority in the Senate. Trump has lost a lot of stuff for Republicans. If Trump loses again, then it is probably the end of Maga Trumpism. And what you will see by 2026 certainly by 2028 with the Republican presidential pick for that year, you were going to see a move away from Maga Trumpism. Now, will it go back to something like Romney republicanism, or will it go to some new, completely whacked out extremism? We don’t yet know. On the other hand, if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, you will likely see, first of all, de facto president. JD Vance, as we continue to suspect that Donald Trump is not fit to be president, especially not for four years, at which point he would be approaching his mid 80s. As we see that there is every expectation that a Trump win means a de facto Vance presidency, that is very scary, but it also is going to reinforce Maga Trumpism as a winning direction for the Republican Party. And we will likely see a lot of Maga candidates in the midterms of 2026 and potentially even a Trump anointed Maga candidate for president in 2028 if Donald Trump still maintains his faculties and cognitive abilities at that point in time, which remains to be seen. So there has been a lot made of when Democrats and leftists say Trump is a threat to democracy, that’s an incitement to violence.

Us. I don’t believe that, but what I do believe is that this is really a major inflection point, and this is an inflection point not only for domestic policy, when it comes to taxes, education, immigration, it’s also an inflection point for foreign policy. How will our allies see us? How seriously will be be ridiculed by the world if Trump wins. So those who try to minimize what’s riding on this election, you know, back in 2012 when it was Romney versus Obama, Obama seeking reelection, I supported Obama. I said I think Obama’s the better pick, but democracy was not at risk. If Mitt Romney became president, we would have a president I disagree with on a lot of issues. This is different, and so we will all know the results soon, and once we do, we will start evaluating and planning for the next two and four years. I.