![The perception of the health of the economy and status of inflation will play a major role in the midterms and 2024 presidential election.](https://san.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/DP_on_Inflation_3.00_05_05_21.Still001.png?w=1920)
Commentary
-
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Where is inflation going? This is the question that many are increasingly asking after there was one lower inflation number when we got the July numbers in August, it seemed as though inflation was on the way down. But then we got August numbers in early September. And things were basically level, the stock market didn’t like it. And now there are questions of whether inflation is going back up, I don’t believe it is. And I want to be really crystal clear. I don’t make financial predictions that anybody should act on. My view is simply an interpretation of the data that we have, and the sense that we have of the direction of the economy. It is my expectation that six months from now, year over year, inflation is going to be notably lower in the United States than it has been. There’s a few different reasons for this, and one includes that we are starting to see individually, lots of categories significantly decline in price from where they were a month ago, gas prices is one of them. Now, what prevented inflation from dropping more dramatically. In the August numbers, which we got in September, despite declining gas prices, included other sectors where prices were up. This includes food at home, in other words, grocery. And there are lag effects there. A lot of the pricing of grocery items in August was related to what had been previously higher transportation costs, it takes a little time for that to filter down through the system. We’re also seeing when you look at bond yields, and you’re listening to the language from the Fed on some of these issues. It doesn’t seem as though there is a bracing for hire or even level inflation, it seems as though we are going to see a decline in prices overall. Now, that being said, and again, remember, it’s not financial advice. I’m not even because I’m even so aware of how terrible we are as humans of making economic predictions. I’m not taking any actions on this basis, I just expect that inflation is going to be looking a lot lower six months from now. Now there’s another component to this. This is all become extraordinarily politicized. We know it’s the economy stupid, right. This is the idea from James Carville from the 1990s. That whether you have foreign policy situation going on or social issues being debated or whatever, significantly, whether the incumbent party does well, in an election of any kind, and also, including in a midterm, like the one we have coming up depends on people’s perceptions of the state of the economy, sometimes the perception and the reality are two different things. It doesn’t matter. And the truth is that we have high inflation right now, a shaky stock market, but still sort of okay, but very close to full employment, in the sense that the unemployment rate is extraordinarily low. There are many companies looking to hire, and to some degree struggling to do it, which again, signals most people have jobs as they do. And we have significant growth in a number of different industries. So when you put all of that together, sometimes good economies stimulate inflation, but on balance, it seems as though over the next six to 10, six to 12 months, we’re going to see lowering inflation. And the question becomes what do people believe about the economy when they go to vote in just a few weeks? If people generally feel that, okay, prices are high, but things are pretty okay. Particularly given that we came out of a pandemic and all these different things happen.
It’s very good for Democrats. If people feel as though Joe Biden has not been a good steward of the economy, then it’s very bad for Democrats, more than likely this only impacts the House of Representatives. Why do I say that? Well, Biden’s not on the ballot. We don’t have a presidential election this November, in the Senate numbers are looking increasingly good for Democrats. In fact, when you look at the 538, Senate forecast, at this point, Democrats are believed to have a 72% chance of holding the Senate Republicans only a 28% chance. And so where this ultimately really matters, is in the House of Representatives. Republicans are still favored to win. If Republicans take the House of Representatives, whether it’s on mediocre or good or bad economic news doesn’t matter if Republicans take the House of Representatives. And you have divided Congress, with Democrats having the Senate and Republicans having the house. Nothing, nothing, nothing will be done for the next two years. That could be good economically. And so Republicans are going to create a situation for 2024 where they can say, look at how this guy Biden and these Democrats, they’ve done nothing for us for the economy. For the last two years. You should vote for For us, and they do it all the time. And of course, we could rightly say, well, nothing was done because you obstructed it. But it doesn’t matter. It works. And so this is why the state of the economy, the perception of the state of the economy, and what inflation does over the next few months, already will play a major role in what 2024 is going to look like.
-
JD Vance doesn’t add much to Trump ticket
At the 2024 Republican National Convention, GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump selected Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, as his running mate. With Trump expected to win Ohio in the Electoral College, some observers have questioned why Trump ultimately decided on Vance. One explanation is that Vance said he would have helped Trump overturn the results of…
-
How likely is a landslide victory in November for either candidate?
With President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance and the recent attempt on former President Trump’s life, some Democratic lawmakers are warning of a landslide Republican victory and urging Biden to step aside. But three new major national polls show signs of hope for Biden’s argument that he must remain the Democratic nominee. Watch the above…
-
Should Biden step aside or not?
President Joe Biden looked and sounded notably less healthy than usual during his recent debate against Donald Trump. Biden’s performance set off alarms for some Democrats, who began discussing the possibility of running an alternative candidate. While there may be promising candidates waiting in the aisles, it’s not clear if or how Biden could or…
-
How Biden can win Florida
Donald Trump is currently projected to win Florida again in 2024, just as he did in 2016 and 2020. But, in response to Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s legal and cultural war against the Left — including what liberals say is a war on women’s rights, education and free speech — many Floridian voters appear…
-
Donald Trump is mentally unwell
Medical experts and observers have long questioned Donald Trump’s mental and psychological health, with malignant narcissism appearing as the most consistent diagnosis of Trump’s supposed illness. Those discussions have fallen to the sidelines in recent years, but resurfaced in response to certain speeches and behavior from the former president. Watch the above video as Straight…
Latest Opinions
-
U.S. Department of Defense
Congress still trying to figure out how to reduce wasteful military spending
-
DVIDS
US Navy, Air Force making waves with new weapons at RIMPAC
-
Getty Images
Israeli PM Netanyahu meets with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
-
Getty Images
Growing US nuclear power resurgence reaches the nation’s heartland
-
Getty Images
Beer from the sun, other solar thermal projects get government funding
Popular Opinions
-
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.