Commentary
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Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
We now know that Democrats have held the US Senate, and Republicans have taken the House of Representatives. We’ve also learned that Nancy Pelosi, the current speaker of the house, not only won’t be speaker because Democrats won’t be in the majority anymore, but he’s stepping down from leadership altogether unusually, Nancy Pelosi will stay in Congress, even though she is stepping down from leadership. Typically, historically, when a member of leadership steps down, they also leave the House of Representatives altogether. That’s not happening. And so now we ask ourselves the question, what will the next two years be like, under Democratic President Joe Biden, Democratic Senate and Republican House of Representatives? Well, in the in the Senate, and in the White House, things are going to be very much unchanged, in the sense that you will see Democrats in the Senate continue to try to pass bills and get things done working in coordination with Joe Biden’s policy and campaign ideas. And the difference will be instead, it will depend on the December 6 runoff in Georgia, whether it will once again be Democrats need every single one of their 50 votes, including Joe Manchin, or whether if Raphael Warnock wins on December 6, and Democrats have 51, Democrats will have one seats worth of breathing room where if Joe Manchin or Kyrsten, sinema, don’t go along with something. There’s still 50 votes very much unchanged. In the House of Representatives. This is going to be the Congress of investigate Hunter Biden and maybe impeach Joe Biden. They don’t know why they’re going to impeach Joe Biden. There’s this amazing video from a New Hampshire Republican primary from a few months ago, where they went through the five candidates who were running. And they said, Would you impeach Joe Biden? And if so why?
Every single one said I would impeach Biden, or I would at least consider it. But for a different reason. Completely unrelated different reasons. They seem determined to want to impeach but they don’t really know why. And they are going to make this about Hunter Biden, last week or the week before. Republicans held a sort of a press event, where they answered questions from reporters. And they just wanted to talk about Hunter Biden, the House GOP Twitter account, spent hours back to back to back posting clips of interviews done by Hunter Biden pictures and statements made by Hunter Biden and on and on, in case you forgotten. Hunter Biden isn’t running for anything. And Hunter Biden has nothing to do with Joe Biden’s administration. Conversely, in the Trump era, Ivanka and Jared were directly involved in the administration, Don Jr. and Eric were extremely visible as surrogates for Donald Trump. And yet Republicans would say they’re they’re completely off limits completely off limits. And now they want to go after Hunter Biden. Okay, fine. They’re going to do it. So then the question is, what effect is that going to have when we start thinking forward to 2024? One of the things about 2024 is that in the Senate, it’s a difficult map for Democrats. Democrats are going to have to defend democratic seats in red or purple states that includes Ohio, and includes Montana, and there’s a couple of others. So on the Senate side, Democrats really need all the help they can get in 24. That’s why the December 6 runoff if Raphael Warnock is able to win, it sort of serves as a down payment if we’re not gets that seat, because remember, in the Senate, it’s six year terms. So everybody who was up in the Senate this year, is not up in 24, Warnock winning would sort of be like a down payment on 24. It would be one seat Democrats don’t have to win in 2024. In the house, we don’t know what things are going to look like in 2024. And any assistance that Democrats can get from Republicans mismanaging the control that they have is going to be very much welcomed by Democrats. The idea is, and with all of these ideas, I don’t pretend to know how it’s going to go. I merely raised it as a question. Humans are terrible at making predictions. The question is, if Republicans take over the House with the slimmest of Slim majorities, which they’re going to have they accomplished nothing. They obstruct everything Biden and Democrats tried to do.
And they just talk about Hunter Biden and maybe even try to impeach Joe Biden. Is that going to backfire? on them? The way that continuing to talk about suppose had rigged elections backfired on them in 2022. If you are in the Democratic Party, your hope is that the answer is yes. However, there are probably at least 10s of millions of Americans who will go with whatever the Republican Party does as far as an agenda. And that agenda quite frankly, may be Just go after Hunter Biden will it backfire I don’t know could it backfire and lead to a massive blue wave and 2024 Absolutely and we’re going to have to wait to see
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