What on earth is Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential strategy?

Well, my friends, Nikki Haley’s 2024 Republican presidential campaign is now in full swing. And it is one of the biggest disasters that I can ever remember seeing, unless you consider that Nikki Haley might not actually be running for the nomination, but instead might be running for Trump’s vice presidential running mate – or, or, or – is running with the idea that Trump might end up indicted and have to drop out of the race. And she wants to be there to pick up his followers. Let’s talk about why I’m saying this. 

Since Nikki Haley announced that she was running for president, she has declined numerous opportunities when asked by reporters and interviewers to draw any distinction whatsoever between her policy and Donald Trump’s policy. She has been told, well, listen, you can talk about Joe Biden all you want, but you’re running against Donald Trump right now. Right now, it’s you and Trump, you have to draw some distinction. And she said, I’m here because my constituents, the people I talk to, are all talking about Joe Biden. So I’m here, I want to talk about Joe Biden. And the answer, of course, is well, you’re not going to get to face Joe Biden, unless you first defeat Donald Trump. 

When she has been asked, why are you even running, why would someone vote for you, her answers have been combinations of why not, identity politics – like saying that she is younger, of a new generation, basically saying I’m younger than Trump – and listing the fact that she is a woman and that she is the daughter of immigrants from India. All of these are the exact types of identity politics that Republicans like Nikki Haley, claim to be against. 

So first and foremost, we have to go through the analysis sort of in steps. If Nikki Haley really wants to defeat Trump to be the nominee, this is not going to cut it. It’s just simply not going to work. And, in fact, part of the reason why Trump ended up doing well in 2016, is that with all those different candidates, Trump kept picking up little bits of support from the one, two and three percent candidates who tried to ignore Trump, assuming he wasn’t going to be viable, and they would fail. They would say I’m exiting the race, and then Trump would pick up their one, two, or three percent.  And then the remaining Republicans would still mostly ignore Trump, and then they wouldn’t be viable and they’d quit. And Trump would pick up their one, two, or three percent. On and on and on. 

And if Nikki Haley continues to do this – listen, Trump’s the bigger name – I don’t think she has a viable campaign without running on any differences and without going after Trump when Trump is a former president of the United States. So if her goal is to win the nomination by defeating Trump, this isn’t going to work. But maybe that’s not our goal. 

Two possibilities there that we can consider. If Nikki Haley is running a visibility campaign to be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate in 2024, maybe this is an okay strategy. We know that Marjorie Taylor Greene desperately wants to be Trump’s running mate in 2024. We know that Kari Lake would love to be Donald Trump’s running mate in 2024. Neither of them seems poised to try to get on Trump’s radar to be his running mate by running for president themselves. They don’t seem interested in that. And in fact, I don’t think they have anything to stand on. At least Nikki Haley was a former ambassador and former governor. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Kari Lake, I don’t even think they could justify running for president. So if you’re trying to get on Trump’s radar, maybe entering the race, not overtly criticizing him, not insulting him, and eventually bowing out respectfully, is a good way to get on Donald Trump’s radar so that he will choose you as his running mate. That’s one possibility. 

There is one other possibility for what Nikki Haley may be doing. Nikki Haley may be thinking to herself, listen, if it’s me against Trump all the way to the end, of course Trump’s going to defeat me. He might lose to DeSantis. But she knows she’s not going to be the one who wins. But Nikki Haley might be thinking, if Donald Trump is going to end up indicted, if it’s DeSantis and Trump going back and forth insulting each other, which might happen if DeSantis announces, a lot of the MAGA people – if Trump is indicted and drops out – aren’t going to go to DeSantis because DeSantis has been insulting Trump, if that’s the way it goes down. 

Nikki Haley might be thinking what I’ll do is I won’t insult Trump. I will stay respectful. I will draw no distinctions between myself and Trump on policy. So that if and when Trump is indicted and has to drop out, or if Trump has a health problem and has to drop out, the MAGA people might say, well, you know, Nikki is kind of the same thing as Trump. She was nice to Trump; she was respectful to Trump. I’m going to go and vote for Nikki because Trump had to drop out. Is that sensible? Does that really make any sense? I don’t know. But I’m thinking out loud about why this is the strategy Nikki Haley appears to be adopting. Let me know what you think. Is this why she won’t criticize Trump? Is this why she won’t draw a distinction from Trump? And most importantly, will it work?