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Biden could send Ukraine long-range cruise missiles soon

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The United States may soon send long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. However, even if a deal were approved tomorrow, it would take several months before Ukraine could actually use them against Russia.

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According to three sources within the White House, Reuters reported President Biden may approve sending AGM-158 JASSMs (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles) to Ukraine, with an official announcement expected this fall.

The JASSMs, stealthy air-launched cruise missiles built by Lockheed Martin, are widely available in the U.S. arsenal. In fact, the U.S. Air Force has so many that it is exploring ways to launch them from cargo planes by the pallet. The missiles are compatible with most strike aircraft in the U.S. inventory, including the F-16s Ukraine is now flying. One F-16 can carry two JASSMs.

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Efforts are also underway to potentially retrofit Ukraine’s Soviet-era jets to carry these missiles, according to one of the White House sources.

The weapon comes in two versions: the original JASSM, with a range of about 230 miles, and the extended range JASSM-ER, which can say “hello” to enemy targets over 600 miles away.

Both variants are designed to be all-weather weapons, using GPS for guidance and switching to infrared cameras in the final stage of attack. Those features make them more resistant to electronic jamming, if the Russians could detect them.

The missiles are hard to pick up on radar due to their outer coating and overall design. They can also be programmed to avoid areas with active enemy radar. Russia is already struggling to counter British and French-supplied stealth cruise missiles, and one can expect that challenge to continue if the U.S. approves sending JASSMs to Ukraine.

Focusing on range, the standard JASSM would allow Ukraine to strike over two dozen Russian military targets that are within its striking distance, including the entirety of Crimea, which Russia illegally seized in 2014. If the extended range version is provided, the number of targets would increase significantly.

However, there is currently a ban on Ukraine using U.S. weapons to strike targets deep in Russia. Although there have been a few exceptions, Ukraine is being forced to largely sit and watch as Russia moves troops and equipment far from the frontlines with relative safety. A deal to send JASSMs could potentially alter these restrictions.

Russia opposes sending JASSMs to Ukraine and lifting the U.S. restrictions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the U.S. and others should not laugh at Russia’s red lines. Lavrov also warned of potential nuclear retaliation. But with previous Russian “red lines” involving tanks, ATACMS and F-16s crossed without consequence, many now say Russia’s red lines are “pointless.” Even Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk, the first time Russia was invaded since WWII, did not spark a nuclear response from Russia.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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THE UNITED STATES MAY SEND UKRAINE LONG-RANGE CRUISE MISSILES. EVEN IF A DEAL WAS APPROVED TOMORROW, THOUGH, IT WOULD TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS BEFORE THE UKRAINIANS COULD ACTUALLY USE THEM AGAINST RUSSIA.

REUTERS IS REPORTING THREE DIFFERENT SOURCES WITHIN THE WHITE HOUSE SAID THE PRESIDENT MAY APPROVE SENDING AGM-158 JASSMs, OR JOINT AIR-TO-SURFACE STANDOFF MISSILES TO UKRAINE. THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT COULD COME THIS FALL.

JASSMs ARE STEALTHY AIR-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES BUILT BY LOCKHEED MARTIN. THE UNITED STATES HAS A LOT OF THEM. SO MANY, THE AIR FORCE IS NOW LOOKING AT WAYS TO LAUNCH THEM OUT OF THE BACK OF CARGO PLANES BY THE PALLET.

THEY ALSO FIT MOST OF THE STRIKE AIRCRAFT IN THE U.S. INVENTORY WHICH MEANS THEY CAN FIT ON THE U.S.-DESIGNED F-16s UKRAINE IS NOW FLYING.
ONE F-16 CAN CARRY TWO JASSMs. BUT ACCORDING TO ONE OF THOSE WHITE HOUSE SOURCES, THERE ARE EFFORTS UNDERWAY TO RETRO-FIT UKRAINE’S SOVIET-ERA JETS SO THEY CAN ALSO JUMP ON THE JASSM TRAIN.

THE WEAPON COMES IN TWO BASIC VARIATIONS. THE ORIGINAL JASSM HAS A RANGE OF ABOUT 230 MILES. THE JASSM-ER, OR EXTENDED RANGE, CAN SAY HELLO TO ENEMIES A LITTLE OVER 600 MILES AWAY. MORE ON RANGE IN A MINUTE.

BOTH VARIANTS ARE DESIGNED TO BE ALL-WEATHER WEAPONS. THE MISSILE IS GUIDED BY GPS TO THE TARGET, BUT SWITCHES TO AN INFRARED CAMERA DURING ITS FINAL STAGE OF ATTACK, MAKING IT A BIT MORE RESILIENT TO ELECTRONIC JAMMING. IF THE RUSSIANS COULD EVEN TRACK THEM.
THE OUTER COATING OF THE MISSILE AND ITS OVERALL DESIGN MAKE IT VERY HARD TO DETECT ON RADAR, AND THEY CAN BE PROGRAMMED TO AVOID AIRSPACE WHERE ENEMY RADAR IS KNOWN TO BE ACTIVE. THE RUSSIANS ARE ALREADY HAVING TROUBLE STOPPING BRITISH AND FRENCH SUPPLIED STEALTH CRUISE MISSILES. WE CAN EXPECT THOSE DILEMMAS TO CONTINUE IF WASHINGTON DOES INDEED APPROVE SENDING THE WEAPONS.

SPEAKING OF DILEMMAS, I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE TOPIC OF RANGE AND HOW UKRAINE COULD USE THAT FEATURE OF THESE WEAPONS TO CREATE A LOT OF DILEMMAS FOR RUSSIA.

SO, HERE’S THE BATTLESPACE. THIS LINE AROUND UKRAINE HERE REPRESENTS THE RANGE OF THE AGM-158A, OR THE ORIGINAL VERSION OF THE JOINT AIR-TO-SURFACE STANDOFF MISSILE.

STANDOFF MEANS THE WEAPON CAN BE FIRED FROM A FAR ENOUGH DISTANCE THAT THE PILOT AND PLANE DOING THE SHOOTING WON’T BE PUT IN DANGER.

WHAT WILL BE PUT IN DANGER ARE THESE RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES. THERE ARE MORE THAN TWO DOZEN OF THESE FACILITIES WHICH ARE WITHIN RANGE OF JASSMS, INCLUDING THE WHOLE OF CRIMEA WHICH RUSSIA ILLEGALLY SEIZED IN 2014.
AND IF THE WHITE HOUSE AGREES TO SEND THE EXTENDED RANGE VARIETY OF JASSM–WEL, THE NUMBER OF DILEMMAS RUSSIA WOULD FACE WOULD GROW DRAMATICALLY.

‘BUT RYAN, ISN’T THERE A BAN ON UKRAINE USING US WEAPONS TO STRIKE TARGETS DEEP IN RUSSIA?’ YES, FRIENDS, THERE IS. AND I’VE REPORTED PRETTY EXTENSIVELY ON IT BEFORE, SO BE SURE TO CHECK IT OUT AT SAN.COM FOR THE FULL BREAKDOWN.
D.C. DID MAKE A FEW EXCEPTIONS HERE AND THERE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, UKRAINE JUST HAS TO SIT AND WATCH AS RUSSIA MOVES TROOPS AND EQUIPMENT AROUND WITH RELATIVE SAFETY DEEP BEHIND THE FRONTLINES.

WHICH IS WHY THE DEAL TO SEND JASSMs TO UKRAINE COULD ALSO INCLUDE AN ALTERATION OF THE RESTRICTIONS KYIV FACES WHEN USING U.S.-MADE WEAPONS.

RUSSIA, FOR GOOD REASON, IS NOT A FAN OF SENDING JASSMs TO UKRAINE OR OF THE U.S. LIFTING ITS RESTRICTIONS. RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SERGEI LAVROV SAID THE U.S. SHOULDN’T LAUGH AT RUSSIA’S RED LINES, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR RETALIATION REMAINS.

BUT TANKS, ATACMS, F-16s–THOSE WERE ALL RUSSIAN RED LINES AS WELL, AND WERE ALL CROSSED WITH NO NUCLEAR STRIKE. UKRAINE’S INCURSION INTO KURSK ALSO CROSSED A RUSSIAN RED LINE, AND WITH SO MANY RUSSIAN RED LINES BEING CROSSED, THERE’S A GROWING BELIEF THEY MAY BE POINTLESS.

I REPORTED ON THAT TOO, AND YOU CAN FIND THE STORY AT SAN.COM OR ON THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP.

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M RYAN ROBERTSON.