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Billions in Ukraine aid uncertain as US leadership changes hands

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The Biden administration is nearing the end of its term and faces a tight timeline to use the remaining $5.6 billion in military aid allocated for Ukraine. According to senior Defense Department officials, it is unlikely all the funds can be utilized to deliver munitions and other supplies to the battlefield before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office in January 2025.

An additional $1.2 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows Kyiv to purchase weapons directly from defense manufacturers, is expected to be spent before the transition.

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Meanwhile, the administration plans to continue sending weapons and supplies under the presidential drawdown authority, a process that allows transfers from Pentagon stockpiles without waiting for new defense contracts. However, officials indicate a significant portion of the $5.6 billion will likely remain unused, and could be available for the incoming administration.

The Trump administration’s stance on military aid to Ukraine remains unclear. Trump has expressed skepticism about ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine, and proposed ending the war within 24 hours if elected. He has not provided detailed plans on how he intends to achieve this. Vice President-elect JD Vance outlined a potential strategy allowing Russia to retain seized Ukrainian territory.

Analysts interpret this as a potential reduction in U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s defense efforts. Ukraine, however, has repeatedly stated it will not accept any peace agreement that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territory.

As the Biden administration concludes its term, Ukraine continues to seek assurances of U.S. support amidst the ongoing conflict and the uncertainty surrounding the incoming administration’s policies.

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[Ryan Robertson]

BIDEN’S LAME DUCK PERIOD IS ALMOST OVER–WHICH MEANS HIS ADMINISTRATION IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO USE WHAT’S LEFT OF THE $5.6 BILLION IN MILITARY AID CONGRESS ALLOCATED EARLIER THIS YEAR. SOME SENIOR LEADERS AT THE D-O-D SAY THAT TIMELINE IS TOO TIGHT TO DELIVER ALL OF THE MUNITIONS TO THE BATTLEFIELD THOSE FUNDS COULD BUY BEFORE PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP STEPS INTO OFFICE.

AN ADDITIONAL $1.2 BILLION UNDER THE UKRAINE SECURITY ASSISTANCE INITIATIVE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPENT BEFORE THE TRANSITION. THIS MONEY ALLOWS KYIV TO PURCHASE WEAPONS DIRECTLY FROM DEFENSE MANUFACTURERS.

THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION ALSO PLANS TO CONTINUE SENDING WEAPONS AND SUPPLIES UNDER THE PRESIDENTIAL DRAWDOWN AUTHORITY, WHICH ALLOWS TRANSFERS FROM PENTAGON STOCKPILES WITHOUT WAITING FOR NEW CONTRACTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FUNDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNUSED, THOUGH, LEAVING THEM AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION.

BUT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S STANCE ON MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR. TRUMP EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM ABOUT CONTINUED U.S. SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AND PROPOSED ENDING THE WAR IN 24 HOURS IF ELECTED, BUT HE HASN’T GONE INTO DETAIL ABOUT HOW THAT WOULD HAPPEN. .

V-PELECT J.D. VANCE OUTLINED A POTENTIAL STRATEGY–WHICH ALLOWS RUSSIA TO KEEP THE UKRAINIAN TERRITORY IT SEIZED. . SOME ANALYSTS INTERPRET THIS AS A POTENTIAL REDUCTION IN U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN UKRAINE’S DEFENSE…AND UKRAINE SAID REPEATEDLY IT WOULDN’T HONOR A PEACE DEAL THAT LETS RUSSIA KEEP UKRAINIAN TERRITORY.

SO TO RE-CAP–WHILE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS PREPARING TO CONCLUDE ITS TERM, UKRAINE’S GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO SEEK ASSURANCES OF U.S. SUPPORT AMIDST THE ONGOING CONFLICT WHILE ALSO NAVIGATING THE THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE INCOMING ADMINISTRATION’S POLICIES.

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