[RYAN ROBERTSON] THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES HAVE ENOUGH CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS TO TAKE OUT ALL OF RUSSIA AND CHINA’S NUCLEAR LAUNCH SITES IN ABOUT TWO HOURS…AT LEAST ACCORDING TO A PAIR OF BRITISH RESEARCHERS BEHIND A NEWLY PUBLISHED STUDY TITLED MASTERS OF THE AIR: STRATEGIC STABILITY AND CONVENTIONAL STRIKES.

IT’S CERTAINLY A BOLD CLAIM–SO I REACHED OUT TO MATT SHOEMAKER–A FORMER US INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR SOME CONTEXT.

You have some pretty strong opinions, your background with your, your intelligence background, like you were on the Russian desk. So when you see an article that says the US can take out all of Russia and China’s nukes in a couple of hours. Accurate, inaccurate. What do you think?

[MATT SHOEMAKER] That is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence to support that. And this particular report is not worth its weight at all from what I can see.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] SHOEMAKER’S ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON HIS OWN EXPERIENCE. HIS DAY JOBS AS AN INTEL OFFICER INCLUDED SITTING ON THE CHINESE NUCLEAR FORCES DESK AND THE RUSSIA DESK.

[MATT SHOEMAKER] So when I see a report that claims that the United States and its allies can wipe out Chinese and Russian nuclear forces capabilities within two hours using conventional weaponry, the first question I have to ask is who in the world is claiming this?

[RYAN ROBERTSON] THAT PERSON WOULD BE PROFESSOR DAN PLESCH–WHO, ALONG WITH A COLLEAGUE–AUTHORED THE MASTERS OF THE AIR STUDY.

[DAN PLESCH] Back in the 1960s, as a teenager, I was extremely interested, particularly with the nuclear threat, and was subscribing to the International Institute for Strategic Studies journals before I ever went to college.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] PLESCH WAS INVOLVED IN THE UK’S ANTI-NUCLEAR CAMPAIGN FOR YEARS IN THE 1970S AND 80S. HE FOUNDED THE BRITISH AMERICAN SECURITY INFORMATION COUNCIL–OR BASIC IN 1985. IT’S A THINK TANK WORKING TOWARDS NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT.

TODAY, PLESCH IS A PROFESSOR OF DIPLOMACY AND STRATEGY AT SOAS UNIVERSITY OF LONDON…WHERE HE’S SPENT A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENERGY RAISING AWARENESS ABOUT THE PROLIFERATION OF CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS.

[DAN PLESCH] And some years ago I wrote a piece for the Conversation because I felt rather frustrated about the way the debate was– which has had about quarter of a million reads I think– about a non -nuclear world war how viable this was, because it seemed to me that conventional counterforce was really the the missing link, the dog that did not bark, choose your cliche.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] CONVENTIONAL COUNTERFORCE IS THE MILITARY TACTIC OF USING CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS TO TARGET AN ADVERSARIES NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

DURING THE COLD WAR–COUNTERFORCE WAS ALL ABOUT USING NUKES TO STOP NUKES.

TODAY–PLESCH SAYS THE US HAS MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPABILITY TO WIPE OUT BOTH RUSSIA AND CHINA’S NUCLEAR ARSENALS WITHOUT EVER NEEDING TO USE ITS OWN NUKES.

PLESCH POINTS TO PROGRAMS LIKE RAPID DRAGON, WHICH USES CARGO PLANES TO LAUNCH PALLETS FULL OF CRUISE MISSILES–OR THE DOMINANCE OF STEALTH AIRCRAFT AS PROOF OF THE WEST HOLDING A DECISIVE ADVANTAGE OVER ITS ADVERSARIES.

AND THAT IMBALANCE OF POWER–ACCORDING TO PLESCH AND OTHERS–COULD BE FUELING A VERY REAL ARMS RACE WITH THE US AND ITS ALLIES ON ONE SIDE, AND RUSSIA, CHINA AND THEIR ALLIES ON ANOTHER.

PLESCH SAYS WHILE THE INTENT OF THE WEST MAY BE TO DETER ADVERSARIES–TO CHINA AND RUSSIA, THE BUILD UP IN CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS BY THE WEST IS A DIRECT THREAT TO BOTH BEIJING AND MOSCOW’S STRATEGIC STABILITY…ESSENTIALLY A MISUNDERSTANDING OF EPIC PROPORTIONS.

[DAN PLESCH] I think one has to say if you have this level of misunderstanding and weapons development and poor understanding about it, then this enhances an already widely acknowledged risk of major war, whether conventional or nuclear, and right now arms control and disarmament is not wanted on voyage. and you know i think we would simply say you know Putin is not a tougher nut than the Soviet Union. He’s materially weaker in many, many ways. And yet, we are asked to accept this. I think it isn’t a question. We have a mutual self -interest in securing an arms control solution.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] PLESCH SAYS THERE NEEDS TO BE A SOFT-LANDING–AN OFF RAMP SOMEWHERE THAT THE WORLD CAN TAKE TOWARDS DISARMAMENT–BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR. AND HE HOPES HIS MASTERS OF THE SKY REPORT–WHICH SHOWS AN OVERWHELMING DOMINANCE BY THE WEST–CAN HELP SPARK THOSE CONVERSATIONS.

BUT FOR FOLKS LIKE MATT SHOEMAKER–PLESCH’S FINDINGS ASSUME TO MUCH–LIKE THAT RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SUBS ARE EASY TO TRACK–OR THAT WESTERN AIR POWER IS SO DOMINANT THE CHINESE AND RUSSIANS NUCLEAR THREATS COULD BE WIPED OUT IN ABOUT AS MUCH TIME AS IT TAKES TO WATCH A MOVIE.

[DAN PLESCH] Excuse me. Like if that were the case, then the Cold War would have been a joke as if we had nothing to worry about.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] SHOEMAKER SAYS JUST BY EXAMINING HOW MUCH TIME, ENERGY, EFFORT AND MONEY BOTH THE CHINESE AND RUSSIANS ARE POURING INTO THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAMS–THE ONLY REASONABLE ASSUMPTION TO TAKE IS THOSE PROGRAMS ARE IMPORTANT AND THE CHINESE AND RUSSIANS WILL DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO PROTECT THEM.

[DAN PLESCH] And so to treat it almost in a sort of flippant attitude is what really irritates me because the people that are going to be reading this on the government side, not just in the West, but also in other parts of the world are going to get a very different message. It’s going to drive some of our adversaries to overreact, potentially speaking. And it allows us to fall on our laurels and just step back and not worry about these things. It’s like, why did you actually publish this if that’s what you think? It’s it’s mind blowing. It really is.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] THOUGHT PROVOKING–POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS–A CONVERSATION STARTER– THE MASTERS OF THE AIR REPORT IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF THINGS.