China’s military drills simulate blocking US forces from Taiwan

• China is conducting military drills to practice blocking U.S. forces from interfering in a potential takeover of Taiwan. A Japanese think tank confirms these exercises are specifically designed to prevent U.S. access to the waters around Taiwan using an A2AD (anti-access/area denial) strategy.
• In response, the U.S. and its allies are preparing countermeasures, including training with advanced weapons like the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), which is designed to penetrate enemy defenses from long range.
• While China aims to keep U.S. forces out of the first and second island chains, stand-off weapons like the JASSM could disrupt this strategy, making a full blockade of Taiwan difficult to execute.

The People’s Republic of China is using live drills to practice keeping United States armed forces from interfering in a hostile Chinese takeover of Taiwan. While this may fall under the “things we already know” category, a Japanese think tank is making the point crystal clear.

Japanese analysis confirms China’s strategy

A recently published analysis from the Japanese Institute for National Fundamentals found that the large-scale military exercises China conducted in early December were designed to practice stopping U.S. forces from approaching the waters surrounding Taiwan.

China wants to employ an A2AD strategy, which stands for “anti-access/area denial.” As the name suggests, this strategy is designed to prevent the U.S. from gaining access to Taiwan and the surrounding region.

To achieve this, China aims to prevent U.S. warships and aircraft from operating in what is called the “First Island Chain,” which extends from Japan south through the Philippines and into Indonesia.

Chinese Naval presence near Taiwan

At the beginning of December 2024, 90 Chinese naval ships were spotted near Taiwan. According to the JINF, 18 destroyers and frigates were deployed east of the first island chain. There, the ships practiced maneuvers designed to keep U.S. forces locked behind the “Second Island Chain,” which stretches from Japan through Guam and into eastern Indonesia.

The role of microchips in the conflict

This is not the first time the discussion around Taiwan’s strategic importance has come up. At its core, Taiwan’s significance comes down to microchips.

While China has long maintained that Taiwan is part of its territory, the self-governing island also produces some of the world’s most advanced microchips. These components are crucial for everything from national defense to consumer electronics.

U.S. and allies move to counter China’s plans

Given Taiwan’s importance, the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies are working to deter China from its current trajectory and, if necessary, prepare to confront the PRC directly.

To that end, while China was conducting its blockade exercises around Taiwan, U.S. Marines on Guam were training with a new addition to their arsenal—the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM).

Built by Lockheed Martin, the JASSM is a stealthy, semi-autonomous, precision-guided air-to-ground missile with a 1,000-pound warhead. Its effective range depends on the variant, but even the basic version has a range of over 500 nautical miles (approximately 600 miles). The U.S. Air Force first used JASSMs in Syria in 2018.

In August 2023, the U.S. Marine Corps announced the successful integration of the JASSM into its fleet of F/A-18 Hornets. Recent images show a USMC Hornet equipped with the missile during a training relocation program in late January. This training allowed Marine crews stationed in the continental U.S. to enhance their tactical proficiency in Guam, preparing for potential future conflicts in a contested environment.

JASSM variants and strategic use

The AGM-158 comes in several variants, with extended-range models capable of targeting both stationary and moving ground targets, as well as ships. As a stand-off weapon, the JASSM is designed to be fired from outside an enemy’s air defenses.

While China may rely on an A2AD strategy to keep the U.S. at bay, munitions like the AGM-158 will be deployed to disrupt that plan. Russia has struggled to stop stealthy cruise missiles used by Ukraine, and if China faces similar challenges, a full blockade of Taiwan may not be feasible.