The global shift toward renewable energy has breathed new life into one of the world’s most significant polluters: coal. As countries ramp up the transition to electric power, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar has spurred an increase in expected coal use to meet rising electricity demands.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that nearly half of global emissions from fossil fuel combustion can be attributed to coal. However, as experts estimating that each year the equivalent electric consumption of the world’s 10 largest cities is added to global energy demand, coal-fired power is increasingly being used meet this need, despite its environmental impact.
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China and India, both major producers of renewable energy infrastructure, are also the leading countries fueling the recent rise in coal use. These nations rely heavily on coal for their energy needs, with the resource providing 60% of China’s electricity and 75% of India’s power.
In response to the increasing use of coal, the IEA has revised its forecast for when global coal demand will peak. Initially projected to occur in 2023, the peak is now anticipated to happen around 2025. However, the agency warns that even if coal demand reaches its peak in the coming years, a sharp decline is unlikely to follow.
Current projections suggest that coal consumption in 2030 will still remain higher than levels seen in 2010. The IEA estimates that coal use in 2030 will be about 6% higher than it was just a year ago. This increase equates to the addition of Japan’s coal consumption, which is the fourth-largest in the world, to the global total.
If current trends persist, the IEA does not expect coal usage to decline to levels seen at the turn of the 21st century until 2050. This timeline could be subject to further revisions if there are delays in energy transition targets or changes in policy and consumption patterns.
THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION IS GIVING NEW LIFE TO ONE OF THE WORLD’S BIGGEST POLLUTERS:
COAL.
THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY HAS FOUND THAT COAL IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALMOST HALF OF THE GLOBAL EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION.
BUT AS THE WORLD GOES ELECTRIC, ITS USE HAS BEEN BOOSTED IN ORDER TO MAKE UP FOR THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF MANY CLEAN POWER SOURCES.
EXPERTS SAY THE EQUIVALENT ELECTRICITY USE OF THE WORLD’S 10 LARGEST CITIES IS BEING ADDED TO THE WORLD’S CONSUMPTION RATE EACH YEAR-
A NEED FOR POWER THAT COAL IS BEING INCREASINGLY ASKED TO FILL.
CHINA AND INDIA ARE THE LARGEST DRIVERS BEHIND THIS-
AS COAL POWERS 60 AND 75 PERCENT OF THESE NATIONS RESPECTIVELY.
BECAUSE OF COAL’S RECENT RISE-
THE I-E-A HAS HAD TO PUSH BACK ITS PROJECTION FOR WHEN COAL DEMAND WILL ULTIMATELY PEAK-
NOW SET FOR 20-25, AFTER PREVIOUS ESTIMATIONS HAD PREDICTED THIS WOULD HAPPEN IN 20-23.
HOWEVER, COAL USE ISN’T BY ANY MEANS GOING TO RAPIDLY DROP OFF AFTER NEXT YEAR.
ITS CONSUMPTION RATE IN 2030 WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN IT WAS BACK IN 2010-
AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 6 PERCENT HIGHER THAN ONLY A YEAR AGO-
AN INCREASE WHICH AMOUNTS TO ADDING THE EQUIVALENT COAL CONSUMPTION OF JAPAN, THE WORLD’S FOURTH-LARGEST BURNER OF THIS RESOURCE.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE-
IT WON’T BE UNTIL 20-50 THAT THE WORLD’S COAL USE DROPS TO LEVELS SEEN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS CENTURY.
THAT IS, BARRING ANY FURTHER DATA REVISIONS AND TARGET DELAYS IN THE ENSUING YEARS.
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