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U.S. Elections

Could the US see a Trump-Harris White House following the 2024 election?

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The 2024 presidential race could lead to former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House if there is a tie in the Electoral College. Looking at a hypothetical scenario, battleground states and states without a “winner-take-all” electoral law could be the deciding factor — particularly Nebraska, a typically Republican state.

In 2020, President Joe Biden won swings states including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. If Arizona and Georgia switch to supporting Trump in the 2024 election, it brings the total electoral vote to 276 to 262 for Biden.

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However, if Nevada switches to support Trump, where he is currently leading in several polls, it then it changes the vote to 270 to 268 — still for Biden.

This is where Nebraska becomes a key state. It is one of two states that doesn’t have a winner-take-all electoral law. It is generally a deep red state, but the district that houses Omaha went blue in 2020, leading to a 4-1 split of delegates. If there is no split in the 2024 election, with Trump getting all five delegates, that would lead to a 269 to 269 tie in the Electoral College.

This hypothetical tie is what would make a Trump-Harris administration possible.

The House of Representatives is then given the task of electing a president. Each state, no matter the amount of representatives, only gets one vote. Whoever reaches 26 votes wins the presidency. Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House, but there is a chance the 2024 congressional elections could change that majority.

In this hypothetical scenario, if Republicans maintain their majority and vote in Trump, whoever he chose as vice president is not automatically given the position.

The Senate elects a vice president in the case of an electoral tie. Democrats would need to maintain their majority in the November elections, allowing them to elect Harris for the job, resulting in a Trump-Harris White House.

This shows just how close the 2024 election could be and sheds light on how impactful elections outside the presidential one are this year.

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[KARAH RUCKER]

JUST HOW CLOSE OF A PRESIDENTIAL RACE COULD WE BE LOOKING AT COME NOVEMBER?

COULD A SMALL DEEP RED STATE IN THE MIDWEST BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN THE 2024 ELECTION?

COULD THERE BE A TIE?

AND IF SO – COULD TRUMP BECOME PRESIDENT AND HIS VP BE KAMALA HARRIS?

THERE IS A CHANCE.

IF THERE WERE A TIE, THINGS COULD GET A LITTLE WEIRD FROM THERE.

TO PLAY OUT OUR LITTLE HYPOTHETICAL, TAKE A LOOK AT THIS MAP.

THIS “ELECTORAL GUESS” ISN’T SUPER FAR-FETCHED.

IT HAS SOME BATTLEGROUND STATES LIKE MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA AND WISCONSIN GOING TO BIDEN –

STATES HE WON IN 2020.

AND OTHERS LIKE ARIZONA AND GEORGIA FLIPPING FOR TRUMP.

IT BRINGS THE TOTAL ELECTORAL VOTE TO 276 TO 262 BIDEN.

BUT WHEN YOU FLIP NEVADA FOR TRUMP – WHICH REPUBLICANS ARE GUNNING FOR AND TRUMP LEADS IN SEVERAL POLLS –

THEN IT BRINGS OUR “WHAT IF SCENARIO” TO 270 TO 268 FOR BIDEN.

BUT.

RIGHT IN THE HEARTLAND – IS A UNIQUE OUTLIER IN NEBRASKA.

IT’S ONE OF JUST TWO STATES THAT DOESN’T HAVE A “WINNER TAKE ALL” ELECTORAL LAW.

WHILE ITS A DEEP RED STATE – THE DISTRICT THAT HOUSES OMAHA – WENT BLUE IN 2020.

HOWEVER –  ITS STATE LEGISLATURE IS LOOKING TO CHANGE THAT – SO INSTEAD OF A 4-1 SPLIT OF DELEGATES – IT WOULD BE ALL FIVE FOR TRUMP.

WHICH TAKES US TO OUR 269-269 TIE.

THIS IS JUST ONE OF MANY WAYS THE ELECTION CAN GO.

BUT LET’S STICK WITH THIS FOR THE SAKE OF EXPLAINING NEXT STEPS.

THIS IS WHERE THE “TRUMP-HARRIS” ADMINISTRATION COULD COME IN.

THE NEWLY SWORN IN HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES IS THEN GIVEN THE TASK OF ELECTING A PRESIDENT.

EACH STATE – NO MATTER HOW MANY HOUSE REPS – ONLY GETS ONE VOTE.

WHOEVER REACHES 26 – WINS THE PRESIDENCY –

A SIGNIFICANT POWER FOR THE PARTY THAT HOLDS THE MAJORITY OF STATE DELEGATIONS IN THIS CHAMBER  — WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE REPUBLICANS.

FOR OUR HYPOTHETICAL

LET’S SAY IN 2024 – THEY MAINTAIN THEIR MAJORITY – AND VOTE IN TRUMP.

WHOEVER TRUMP CHOOSES AS HIS VP ISN’T AUTOMATICALLY GIVEN THE POSITION IN THIS SCENARIO.

THE SENATE ELECTS A VICE PRESIDENT IN THE CASE OF A TIE.

THEY CHOOSE BETWEEN THE TOP TWO ELECTORAL VOTE GETTERS.

DEMOCRATS WOULD NEED TO MAINTAIN ITS MAJORITY IN NOVEMBER –

THEN THE CHAMBER COULD ELECT BIDEN’S RUNNING MATE.

SO AS ODD AS IT SOUNDS – 

THERE IS A WORLD OUT THERE THAT COULD SEE –

A “TRUMP-HARRIS” FOUR YEAR STINT IN THE WHITE HOUSE.

THE POINT OF THIS STORY.

BIG PICTURE?

TO SHOW JUST HOW CLOSE THE 2024 ELECTION COULD BE –

GIVEN THERE’S SUCH A MIXTURE IN POLL RESULTS ON “WHO LEADS WHO”.

HOPEFULLY THIS ALSO SHED SOME LIGHT ON HOW CRUCIAL OTHER ELECTIONS ARE THIS YEAR OUTSIDE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ONE.

AND TO HAVE A LITTLE FUN.

BECAUSE IMAGINING THESE TWO SHARING THE WHITE HOUSE.

IS HOPEFULLY BIPARTISAN HUMOR WE CAN ALL ENJOY.