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How would mass EV adoption impact the environment? And is it feasible?

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In the pursuit of climate goals, transitioning from gas-powered automobiles to electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a key strategy. But a closer examination reveals complexities surrounding the environmental benefits and feasibility of mass EV adoption.

“Even if millions of people buy battery-electric vehicles, automakers could still fall short of hitting goals set under the Paris Agreement on climate change,” said Vijay Subramanian, director of global CO2 compliance, cost and powertrain forecasting at S&P Global Mobility. “As the journey progresses toward achieving the ambitious objectives of the Paris Agreement, it becomes evident that relying solely on electrification likely will be insufficient due to the intricate challenges involved.”

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The process of manufacturing EVs initially contributes significantly more emissions compared to traditional gas-powered cars. Studies indicate that up to 80% more emissions are generated during the production of an EV. It’s only after an EV has been driven approximately 15,000 miles that its carbon footprint begins to align with that of a conventional vehicle. That distance is equivalent to driving across the U.S. on Interstate 80 five times.

The decommissioning of EVs also poses environmental challenges, with the combined carbon outputs of manufacturing and deconstruction comparable to about 40% of the average American’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

“A lot of people think that a large-scale shift to EVs will mostly solve our climate problems in the passenger vehicle sector,” Alexandre Milovanoff, a sustainable development expert and policy analyst for the Canadian government, said. “I think a better way to look at it is this: EVs are necessary, but on their own, they are not sufficient.”

One of the primary contributors to EVs’ environmental footprint lies in the extraction and processing of raw materials, a process that generates up to 85% of the total greenhouse gases that these vehicles create.

China, controlling 90% of the electric vehicle supply chain, plays a central role here. Beijing’s relatively lax environmental standards have facilitated its dominance in the EV industry, making this supply chain the most environmentally harmful aspect of EV production.

While EVs eventually offset their initial emissions over the course of their operational lifespan, concerns persist regarding the scale of adoption required to make a substantial impact on climate goals. Researchers at the University of Toronto suggest that for the U.S. to achieve its 2050 climate targets, 90% of the nation’s vehicle fleet must be electric.

“Climate change mitigation strategies are often technology-oriented, and electric vehicles (EVs) are a good example of something believed to be a silver bullet,” the University of Toronto team said in its report. “Here we show that current U.S. policies are insufficient to remain within a sectoral CO2 emission budget for light-duty vehicles, consistent with preventing more than 2 °C global warming. Closing the mitigation gap solely with EVs would require more than 350 million on-road EVs (90% of the fleet), half of national electricity demand and excessive amounts of critical materials to be deployed in 2050.”

Achieving such targets would necessitate a cessation of combustion engine vehicle sales as early as 2030. Projections from analysts at IHS Markit forecast that by 2050, only 60% of new U.S. vehicle sales will be EVs. That number contrasts with more conservative estimates suggesting less than a third of the American market will be EVs by that time.

The Biden administration has endorsed legislation aiming to bring nearly 100 million EVs onto U.S. roads by 2050. However, experts caution that this may fall short by more than half of what is necessary to meet climate targets. Even if the U.S. and other nations achieve their EV goals by 2050, doing so may not suffice to reach net-zero emissions objectives.

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[JACK AYLMER]

WE’VE BEEN TOLD IF THE U.S. WANTS TO HIT ITS CLIMATE GOALS, TURNING FROM GAS-POWERED AUTOS TO EVS WILL BE KEY.

SO, HOW MUCH WILL A MASS EV ADOPTION END UP BENEFITING THE PLANET? AND IS MASS ADOPTION A REALITY?

LET’S START WITH WHAT IT TAKES TO BUILD AN EV IN THE FIRST PLACE.

THE PROCESS CREATES UP TO 80% MORE EMISSIONS THAN BUILDING A GAS POWERED CAR.

IT’S ONLY AFTER AN EV HAS BEEN DRIVEN ABOUT 15,000 MILES THAT ITS CARBON FOOTPRINT BEGINS TO MATCH THAT OF A CONVENTIONAL VEHICLE.

THAT DISTANCE IS EQUIVALENT TO DRIVING ACROSS THE U.S. ON INTERSTATE 80 – FIVE DIFFERENT TIMES.

AND WHEN IT COMES TIME TO RETIRE AN EV, THAT CAN ALSO TAKE A TOLL ON THE ENVIRONMENT.

THE COMBINED CARBON OUTPUTS OF MAKING AND DECONSTRUCTING JUST ONE EV IS COMPARABLE TO ABOUT 40% OF THE AVERAGE AMERICAN’S ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS.

THE MANUFACTURING PROCESS HAS SUCH A HEAVY FOOTPRINT BECAUSE OF THE RAW MATERIALS NEEDED TO MAKE AN EV.

UP TO 85% PERCENT OF THE TOTAL GREENHOUSE GASSES CREATED BY AN EV ARE GENERATED THROUGH ACQUIRING RESOURCES FOR THEIR ASSEMBLY. 

AND MOST OF THOSE COME THROUGH CHINA, WHICH CONTROLS 90% OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY CHAIN.  

BEIJING’S LAX ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS HELPING ITS EV INDUSTRY  DOMINATE THE SECTOR.

THAT HAS MADE THIS THE MOST ENVIRONMENTALLY HARMFUL ASPECT OF THESE CARS.

AND WHILE EVS DO EVENTUALLY MAKE UP FOR THOSE EMISSIONS ONCE THEY’VE BEEN ON THE ROAD FOR AWHILE, THAT MAY NOT ULTIMATELY BE ENOUGH TO MAKE A DENT IN THE MUCH LARGER PROBLEM.  

RESEARCHERS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO FOUND IN ORDER FOR THE U.S. TO HIT ITS 20-50 CLIMATE GOALS, 90% OF THE NATIONS VEHICLE FLEET MUST BE ELECTRIC.

TO HIT THAT TARGET, EV ADVOCATES SAY SALES OF COMBUSTION ENGINE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO BE STOPPED BY AS EARLY AS 2030.

BUT IS THAT REALISTIC? 

ANALYSTS WITH IHS MARKIT BELIEVE BY 2050 ONLY 60% OF U.S. VEHICLES ARE GOING TO BE EVS.

WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER ESTIMATES THAT SAY ONLY A THIRD OF U-S CARS WILL BE EVS BY THEN

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS BACKING LEGISLATION THAT AIMS TO BRING THE U.S. CLOSE TO 100 MILLION EVS BY 2050.

BUT THE ICF CLIMATE CENTER SAYS THAT MAY BE LESS THAN HALF OF WHAT IS NEEDED. 

EVEN IF THE U.S. AND OTHER NATIONS SAW THEIR EV GOALS FULFILLED IN 2050, THAT ALONE WOULD STILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO HIT NET ZERO EMISSIONS TARGETS.