Is the new leader in Syria more pragmatic than fanatic?

THE BAATHIST REGIME RULED SYRIA WITH BRUTALITY SINCE 1963. THEN, IN THE SPAN OF FEW WEEKS AT THE END OF 2024, THE DICTATORSHIP WAS OVERTHROWN AND BASHAR AL-ASSAD FLED TO RUSSIA.

THE OUSTER CAME AT THE HANDS OF THE REBEL LEADER ABU MOHAMMED AL-JOLANI, AND HIS GROUP KNOWN AS HAY’AT TAHRIR AL-SHAM

Avi Melamed: If you want to translate it, it’s some sort of like ‘the Highest Authority for the Liberation of al’Sham.’ Sham is the name that has been known for history to the area that is today known by the name of the Levant. It includes what is today Syria and Lebanon and Israel and Palestinian territories.

AVI MELAMED IS A FORMER ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE OFFICER. HE’S NOW AN AUTHOR, AND HEADS AN ORGANIZATION CALLED INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST.

SINCE MANY AMERICANS, INCLUDING MYSELF, DON’T KNOW MUCH ABOUT AL-JOLANI OR HTS, I WANTED TO GET MELAMED’S INSIGHTS ON THE MAN AND THE GROUP NOW CONTROLLING SYRIA.

AL-JOLANI HAS A LONG HISTORY OF INVOLVEMENT WITH SALAFI JIHADIST GROUPS, INCLUDING ISIS AND AL-QAEDA. DURING THE OUTBREAK OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR HOWEVER, IN 2014, ISIS AND AL-QAEDA BROKE TIES.

Melamed: That was the time, roughly speaking, when Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani basically turned towards this Al-Qaeda side, and started operating in Syria as Al-Qaeda branch under the name of Jabhat al-Nusra, which means the ‘Front of the Supporters’ or the ‘Disciples.’

AL-NUSRA GREW INTO A POWERFUL PLAYER IN NORTHWEST SYRIA.THE ENTIRE COUNTRY IS ABOUT THE SIZE OF WASHINGTON STATE, AND AL-NUSRA WAS CARVING OUT AN AREA ABOUT THE SIZE OF DELAWARE.
MELAMED SAYS THE GROUP WAS MADE UP OF A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FIGHTERS AND FACTIONS FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. THAT CONGLOMERATION ALSO BROUGHT IN SPIRITUAL INFLUENCES FROM FOREIGN COUNTRIES. IT WAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AL-JOLANI CONTINUED HIS JOURNEY AWAY FROM THE MORE EXTREME ELEMENTS IN SYRIA.

Melamed: In 2016, Al-Jolani made an interesting move in two aspects. First, he announced that he’s detaching itself from Al-Qaeda, and basically emphasized that it has been done in a mutual consent with the leadership of Al-Qaeda. And the other thing he did was to expose himself. He actually gave interviews before, but it was anonymous.

MELAMED SAID THE ANNOUNCEMENT AND SPLIT FROM AL-QAEDA WAS AN INTERESTING EARLY INDICATOR THAT JOLANI WAS STARTING TO FOCUSE MORE ON THE SYRIAN DOMESTIC IDENTITY, RATHER THAN JIHADISM.

THIS SHIFT WASN’T WELCOMED BY ALL IN AL-NUSRA, AND ACTUALLY LED TO SOME PRETTY VIOLENT INTERNAL FIGHTING. BUT IN THE END, JOLANI AND HIS MORE PRAGMATIC APPROACH WON OUT.

Melamed: And so Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, that actually was formed following this inner split. The interesting thing is that one of the significant ramifications of that was that he was able, to a large extent, neutralize the influence of these foreign spiritual religious leaders. And that basically enabled him to increase its, its, I would say, political maneuvering capacities.

Robertson: The split from the Jihadi influence side to more of a Syria influence, is that indicative in your mind, and you kind of just alluded to it– that the Jolani government might be more focused on national issues and less spiritual jihadi type issues?

Melamed: Well, you know, this is one of the major questions that bothers today intelligence agencies and analysts and so on. It’s an open question, because on the one hand,we should remember, Jolani is coming ideologically from this camp. I mean, the man has been for the last, we are now looking now almost two decades, very much entrenched in a world of, in the end of the day, in the world of Salafi jihadi groups. So it’s definitely, I would say, is part of its DNA.

Robertson: Which included, I mean–going back to ISIS and al-Qaeda– includes like beheadings, tortures, rapes, like mass killings, you know, all the things that Americans say are awful, right?

Melamed: Well we should, of course, we should remind ourselves that in the end of the day, those Salafi jihadist groups like al-Qaeda or ISIS are brutal, murderous organizations. We are all familiar with the atrocities those groups are involved in. And al-Jolani is coming from that world.

Now, at the other hand, we can indicate the milestones where Jolani is actually taking a more, what we could call, a pragmatic approach.

MELAMED POINTS TO THE STARK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ISIS’ RULE OF ITS SHORT-LIVED CALIPHATE AND AL-JOLANI’S GOVERNING STYLE.

IDLIB, IN NORTHWEST SYRIA, HAS BEEN UNDER JOLANI’S CONTROL FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW. THERE HE CREATED THE POLITICAL ARM OF HTS, CALLED THE SYRIAN SALVATION GOVERNMENT, WHICH IS MARKEDLY MORE WELCOMING TO PROGRESSIVE IDEAS IN SYRIA. FOR INSTANCE UNDER THE SSG, WOMEN HAD MANY MORE RIGHTS AND COULD EVEN GET A UNIVERSITY EDUCATION. A FAR CRY FROM THE BRUTALITY WITH WHICH ISIS RULED, WHEN PETTY THEFT COULD RESULT IN THE PERPETRATOR LOSING THEIR HANDS AND BEHEADINGS WERE QUITE COMMON.

Melamed: Information that came from Idlib, which I evaluate as reliable, basically indicates that at end of the day, it was and is an Islamic-affiliated government. However, it could also be at the same time characterized as one that is not totally authoritarian in the sense that it is leaving enough space of maneuvering to decide what are the things that it’s important for them to insist and to dictate and what are the things that they don’t necessarily think are important and insist to dictate.

IN ALMOST EVERY INTERVIEW SINCE HE SEIZED POWER, AL-JOLANI TALKS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF SYRIA, AND HOW HE WANTS TO SET UP A GOVERNMENT FREE FROM THE BRUTALITY OF PAST AND FOCUSED ON THE NEEDS OF SYRIA’S PEOPLE.
HE SEEMS TO BE MAKING HEADWAY IN SOME WESTERN CIRCLES TOO. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT CANCELLED THE $10 MILLION BOUNTY ON JOLANI’S HEAD, AND IN ANOTHER SIGN OF SEPARATION FROM PAST EVENTS JOLANI CHANGED HIS NAME. HE’S DROPPING HIS WARTIME MONIKER AND INSTEAD REVERTING BACK TO HIS BIRTHNAME, AHMED AL SHARAA.

WHETHER IT’S ALL ENOUGH TO EARN HIM LEGITIMACY ON THE WORLD STAGE, AND MAYBE MORE IMPORTANTLY, TO FELLOW SYRIANS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BUT, IF WE BELIEVE WHAT SHARAA TOLD THE BBC, A MORE DIVERSIFIED, FREE, AND ECONOMICALLY ROBUST SYRIA MAY NOT BE THE STUFF OF FANTASY ANYMORE.

Sharaa via interpreter: The Syrian population lived together for thousands of years. We’re going to discuss all of it. We’re going to have dialogue and make sure everyone is represented. The old regime always played on sectarian divisions. But we won’t.

BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME. AL-SHARAA SAYS IT COULD BE FOUR YEAR BEFORE SYRIA’S NEW CONSTITUTION IS WRITTEN AND A PERMANENT GOVERNMENT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M RYAN ROBERTSON. FOR MORE OF OUR UNBIASED, STRAIGHT FACT REPORTING LIKE THIS BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP TODAY, OR LOG ON TO SAN.COM