[Ryan Robertson]

FOR YEARS HOLLYWOOD TOLD AND RE-TOLD STORIES CENTERED ON THE BORDER BETWEEN THE U.S. AND MEXICO. FROM SICARIO TO SIN NOMBRE TO THE MARKSMAN, ALL WITH VARYING DEGREES OF REALISM AND ACCURACY, ILLUSTRATING THE LONG RUNNING TENSIONS AT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER.

OF COURSE YOU DON’T HAVE TO LOOK ANY FURTHER THAN TODAY’S HEADLINES FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DECADES OLD ISSUE. BUT NOW, WITH A NEW ADMINISTRATION IN THE WHITE HOUSE, THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING WE’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE EXISTS; REGULAR AMERICAN TROOPS GOING AFTER MEXICAN CARTELS. AND THAT’S THE SUBJECT OF THIS WEEK’S DEBRIEF.

ONE OF THE MANY EXECUTIVE ORDERS SIGNED BY PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SINCE RETAKING THE OVAL OFFICE CALLED FOR THE STATE DEPARTMENT TO LABEL MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS AS FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS–FTOs. 

THE PRESIDENT IS MOTIVATED BY THE RISE IN OPIOID AND FENTANYL RELATED DEATHS LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE CARTELS’ SMUGGLING OPERATIONS. 

SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO DID LABEL 8 MEXICAN CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS–INCLUDING THE TREN DE ARAGUA GANG AND THE SINOLA CARTEL– AS FTOs AFTER THE DEPARTMENT’S BUREAU OF COUNTERTERRORISM SHOWED THE GROUPS WERE ENGAGING IN TERRORIST ACTIVITIES, WHICH ARE DEFINED AS PREMEDITATED, POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE PERPETRATED AGAINST NONCOMBATANT TARGETS BY SUBNATIONAL OR CLANDESTINE GROUPS. 

BUT JUST BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES NOW OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZES THE CARTELS AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS–DOESN’T MEAN A FULL-SCALE U-S INVASION TO ROOT OUT MEXICAN CARTELS IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

[Jon Molik, Army Intelligence Officer]

“Yeah, I think it was really the message that was most important when it came to targeting or labeling these cartels FTOs.”

[Ryan Robertson]

JON MOLIK IS AN ACTIVE-DUTY U-S INTELLIGENCE OFFICER.

[Jon Molik, Army Intelligence Officer]

“I mean, they’re already targeted with some pretty significant law enforcement authority. The Drug Enforcement Administration works very hard on the border and in other places to curb the drug smuggling from said cartels and Homeland Security Investigations does as well, the FBI. You know, there are already a lot of laws on the books dealing with what are traditionally called transnational criminal organizations, TCOs. And so there’s a bit of an increase in financial authority, financial investigative authority. You can seize some real estate property. can seize financial assets and stuff. And you can break financial transactions between US citizens and those cartels. But there isn’t a huge leap, if you will. It’s more about messaging.”

[Ryan Robertson, host of Weapons and Warfare]

“If we take those gloves off and this becomes a kinetic fight, you know, let’s push things out to the right. What would that look like? Is it SOF units? Is it HIMARS on the Rio Grande? What, what would a kinetic fight with the cartels look like?”

[Jon Molik, Army Intelligence Officer]

“Yeah. So again, assuming the diplomatic efforts fall through and this ends up being something that is kinetic. I would say it’s not the latter, more the former in that being special operations activity, you know, south of the border. if we wanted to get involved in that. But I would say that’s something that already kind of happens in a law enforcement capacity. So I think it would be more of that. it would look a lot like, in my estimation, it would look a lot like what we do with foreign governments across the world that are allies with the United States, and that is training and bolstering and equipping those that are already there. So, and that’s really the ultimate purpose of special operations forces, at least some of the groups, is to train other militaries. That’s what the Green Berets do in particular.”

[Ryan Robertson]

GREEN BERETS LIKE ERIC BROWN–WHO SPENT MORE THAN 20 YEARS WITH THE ARMY’S SPECIAL FORCES. 

[Eric Brown, Former Green Beret]

“You don’t wanna solve a problem for another country. You wanna give the resources and capabilities to that country for them to solve that problem.”

[Ryan Robertson]

BROWN SAYS IF THE CARTELS DO FIND THEIR WAY ONTO THE U-S STATE DEPARTMENT’S FTO LIST–THEN NEW POTS OF MONEY ARE MADE AVAILABLE TO CARRYOUT AND EXPAND OPERATIONS.

SO, MORE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, MORE TRAINING OF LOCAL FORCES, MAYBE SOME ELITE U-S SOLDIERS ON THE GROUND CARRYING-OUT HIGH VALUE MISSIONS. BUT BOTH BROWN AND MOLIK SAY A FULL ON, HEAD-TO-HEAD FIGHT BETWEEN THE CARTELS AND CONVENTIONAL U-S FORCES IS NOT REALISTIC. 

[Eric Brown, Former Green Beret]

“I don’t think they have close air support capabilities yet. I don’t think they have F-35s and F-16s and C-130, you know, Spectre gunships, gunships dropping bombs. I could be wrong, but I mean, they do have the ability to do that with drones of dropping ordnance. But yeah, I think it’d be more of a clandestine approach.”

[Ryan Robertson, host of Weapons and Warfare]

“Right? Because pulling in like, you know, those more exquisite assets like a, you know, a ghostrider gunship or something like that, obviously, that would take a lot of coordination with the Mexican government as well. And like you said, the stomach for that. I mean, there could be–that would be a full scale war. There are going to be casualties and you know, impacts of that kind of operation. So, yeah, I think, you know, obviously I’m going to agree with you. You’re the expert, right? I think it probably would be more clandestine type approaches, but walk me through what that would look like. I mean, it’s, you know, special forces going in, teaching native populations, you know, how to, how to conduct warfare, but there’s also probably going to be some smaller squads, you know, doing some ninja type stuff in the middle of the night, right?”

[Eric Brown, Former Green Beret]

“Yeah, I like that analogy. Ninja squads. You better watch out, somebody in the government might take that and name a ninja squad. Yeah, if you’re training, let’s say, an elite force with the Mexican military to go head on and hit those strategic targets. But if you do have, let’s say, what we did in Afghanistan and Iraq, right, was the HVT, a high value target, that you can get permissions and authorities to do a kill-capture mission. That’s when you would bring in the force that does that for the America side, where you gain that intelligence, you infiltrate you know, clandestinely at night or whatever the time that they’re not expecting it and you come off the truck or the air, you know, air platform and you execute a target and then fly back, either killing or capturing. But like you said, you have to have the, you know, that’s when America and Mexico have to high five and, and agree on that because, no one wants our ninjas to come into their country, cause they’re sovereign, right? We wouldn’t want Mexico to have a ninja squad to come into America to execute what they deem a high value target.”

[Ryan Robertson]

APART FROM NINJA SQUADS CARRYING OUT CLANDESTINE MISSIONS ON HIGH VALUE TARGETS–BROWN SAYS THE U-S COULD DECIDE TO USE DRONES, LIKE AN MQ-9 REAPER–TO TAKE OUT CERTAIN CARTEL MEMBERS–SORT OF LIKE HOW TRUMP ORDERED THE STRIKE ON QASSEM SOLEMIENI–AN IRANIAN TERRORIST LEADER WHO WAS BLOWN UP WHILE IN IRAQ. 

[Eric Brown, Former Green Beret]

“When we did that to him, I mean, Iraq got mad, but nothing happened.”

[Ryan Robertson]

WHEN IT COMES TO USING REAPERS TO TAKE OUT DRUG FACTORIES THOUGH, MOLIK SAYS THE JUICE MAY NOT BE WORTH THE SQUEEZE.

[Jon Molik, Army Intelligence Officer]

“In terms of kinetic response; using platforms like the Reaper, which has that capability, that’s all about tactics. What I mean by that is to say, how effective would it be to conduct targeted strikes against, say, drug labs that are being operated within one cartel? It’s likely going to be just as effective as going after IED locations, facilitation locations within Afghanistan. I mean, it would have an immediate impact and then someone’s gonna build a new drug house and it’s gonna move down the road and go somewhere else. So I don’t know if the United States would be interested in getting involved in some whack-a-mole with all of these, yeah, all of these MQ9s in their kinetic capacity. That costs a lot of money and how effective could it really be?”

[Ryan Robertson] 

INFILTRATING THE CARTELS AND TAKING OUT THE WHOLE OPERATION SO IT CAN’T RECONSTITUTE WOULD BE ONE WAY OF DEALING WITH THE CARTELS…BUT PROTECTING THE IDENTITIES OF ANY AMERICAN’S INVOLVED IN THOSE OPERATIONS WOULD BE VITAL. BECAUSE UNLIKE FIGHTING THE TALIBAN OR ISIS, THERE IS A REAL RISK OF RETALIATION FROM THE CARTELS AGAINST SOLDIERS’ FAMILIES. THE CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS ARE OBVIOUSLY VERY WELL FUNDED AND OPERATE VAST NETWORKS–SO IF A SOLDIER’S IDENTITY IS DISCOVERED, THE CARTELS ABSOLUTELY HAVE THE MEANS TO ACT ON THAT INFORMATION. 

BUT THERE AGAIN, DOING SO MAY ACTUALLY PUT THE CARTELS IN A MORE PRECARIOUS POSITION WITH THE U-S MILITARY THAN THEY ALREADY ARE. 

[Jon Molik, Army Intelligence Officer]

“The cartels are a little different than other organizations we’ve dealt with throughout the world. Other organizations are looking at potentially becoming nation states, taking control of land from other areas. And that’s not what the cartels want. The cartels are like gangs and organized crime in the United States. They want to make money. And the only way to make money is if nobody is paying attention to them. And so if they conducted some type of operation so drastic, like killing innocents with RPGs across the border, you’re going to bring the full-fledged might of the United States potentially against your operations. And now you can’t make money.”

[Ryan Robertson]

SO, TO RECAP–WHILE LABELING MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS AS FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS DOES PUT THEM IN THE SAME CATEGORY AS HAMAS, ISIS, AND BOKO HARAM… IT DOESN’T MEAN THE U-S WILL FIGHT THEM THE SAME WAY. 

IT DOES MEAN THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE IS PUTTING A LOT MORE SCRUTINY ON THOSE ORGANIZATIONS AND IS WILLING TO PUT ADDITIONAL RESOURCES TOWARDS TAKING THEM DOWN.