With a year until the midterm election, Democrats face an uphill battle to keep control of Congress. President Biden’s approval rating continues to plummet. Polling from FiveThirtyEight.com has Biden’s approval rating at 43 percent, down from 44 percent in mid-October, and 45 percent in mid-September.
Historically, the party with the White House generally loses seats in the midterm election. During President Obama’s first term, Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 election. Following the 2018 midterm election, Republicans lost 40 seats.
“I didn’t run because of the polls,” Biden said to Cincinnati’s WKRC. “I think what you’re going to see is the combination of what I did in the beginning in terms of the recovery act, and then this legislation, as well as the legislation we’re about the pass, god willing, on what’s called Build Back Better.”
However, it isn’t all bad news for Biden. In October, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent, a new pandemic low. Not only that, the number of new jobs created last month beat the expected number by more than 80,000 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages are also up, almost 5 percent from this time last year, and 0.4 percent from September.
However, Democrats still have a lot of ground to cover before the midterm if they want to maintain control of Congress. Republicans need a net gain of just one seat in the Senate to win back the majority. In the House, Democrats hold their most fragile majority in eight decades. Republicans need a net gain of just five seats in the 435-Member chamber to win back control of the House of Representatives.
Through October, 29 Members have said they won’t be trying to keep their seat. Some will retire, and others will run for a different political office.
In the Senate, five Republicans won’t be running again. The Cook Political Report lists two of those seats, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as tossups.
In the House, 14 Democrats and 10 Republicans aren’t running for re-election, including moderates Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH). House Budget Chair John Yarmuth (D-KY) is retiring. None of the House seats are considered to be at risk, or even really in play, according to the Cook Political Report.
Turnout could impact those races. After a big win in Virginia and a close race in New Jersey, Republicans are excited about their future. Rather than focus on divisive issues, the GOP has made education a priority, taking into account both critical race theory and parents’ rights.
“With a message like education, you can boil it down to one word, but different voters in different parts of the electorate heard different things when Glenn Youngkin talk about that and it worked for him,” explained Steve Shepard, the senior campaigns and elections editor and chief polling analyst at Politico.