MIT economist claims AI capable of doing only 5% of jobs, predicts crash

AN M-I-T ECONOMIST ISSUED A STARK WARNING ABOUT THE CURRENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BOOM, ESTIMATING THAT ONLY 5-PERCENT OF JOBS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE TECHNOLOGY OVER THE NEXT DECADE. WHILE THIS MAY SOUND LIKE GOOD NEWS FOR WORKERS, IT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR COMPANIES INVESTING BILLIONS IN A-I, EXPECTING DRAMATIC PRODUCTIVITY GAINS.

DARON ACEMOGLU OUTLINES THREE POTENTIAL FUTURES FOR THE A-I BOOM. 

IN THE FIRST, THE CURRENT EXCITEMENT ABOUT A-I GRADUALLY COOLS, AND BUSINESSES SHIFT THEIR FOCUS TO MORE PRACTICAL USES OF THE TECHNOLOGY. 

THE SECOND SCENARIO IS LESS OPTIMISTIC. THE A-I BUBBLE COULD CONTINUE TO GROW FOR ANOTHER YEAR, LEADING TO A SHARP CRASH IN TECH STOCKS, CAUSING WIDESPREAD DISILLUSIONMENT.

THE THIRD… AND MOST DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS THAT THE A-I FRENZY CONTINUES UNCHECKED, LEADING COMPANIES TO CUT JOBS IN FAVOR OF A-I. BUT WHEN THE TECHNOLOGY FAILS TO MEET EXPECTATIONS, THEY’LL SCRAMBLE TO REHIRE WORKERS, LEAVING THE ECONOMY IN TURMOIL.

ACEMOGLU PREDICTS A COMBINATION OF THE SECOND AND THIRD SCENARIOS IS MOST LIKELY. HE EXPLAINS THAT TODAY’S A-I MODELS, LIKE CHAT G-P-T, ARE IMPRESSIVE BUT LACK THE RELIABILITY AND HUMAN JUDGMENT REQUIRED TO REPLACE MANY JOBS… FROM WHITE-COLLAR TO PHYSICAL LABOR.

IN JUST ONE QUARTER THIS YEAR… MICROSOFT, ALPHABET, AMAZON AND META SPENT OVER 50-BILLION DOLLARS ON CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, MUCH OF IT DEDICATED TO A-I.

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FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS… I’M LAUREN TAYLOR.