Not as good as they usually are: Black Friday deals not immune to inflation

Just like most things have been over the past several months, it appears Black Friday deals will also be affected by inflation. According to a blog post from computer software giant Adobe published last month, “U.S. consumers will pay 9 percent more on average during Cyber Week this year, compared to the last holiday season.”

“This is the result of smaller discounts, on top of e-commerce inflation that has persisted through the year,” Adobe said in the blog post. “Adobe forecasts discounts will be in the 5 percent to 25 percent range across categories this season, compared to a historical average of 10 percent to 30 percent.”

According to Adobe, online prices have increased 3.3% since last June. While that is expected to play a significant role in the size of Black Friday deals, it is still smaller than overall consumer inflation. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported a 6.2% rise in its consumer price index from last October to this October. That’s the highest year-to-year increase since 1990.

In addition to inflation the ongoing supply chain issues are also expected to play a role in smaller Black Friday deals. The issues have already affected what is available for people to choose from when shopping for the holidays.

“Compared to a pre-pandemic period (Jan. 2020), the prevalence of out-of-stock messages has risen a whopping 172 percent going into the holiday season. Adobe expects it to remain at this level, increasing for certain products throughout the season,” Adobe said. “Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, apparel has the highest out-of-stock levels currently, followed by sporting goods, baby products, and electronics.”

Even though Americans are not likely to get the most bang for their buck, Adobe said last month it expected “U.S. holiday sales online to hit $207 billion from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, setting a new record.” That’s a 10% increase from last year, when COVID-19 made online gift shopping a necessity for many.

For those looking to take advantage of what deals there are, Adobe laid out which days around Black Friday are the best for buying which type of gift. The best days to shop include:

• Thanksgiving (11/25): Toys
• Black Friday (11/26): Furniture/bedding, tools/home improvement
• Saturday (11/27): Electronics and appliances
• Sunday (11/28): Apparel and sporting goods
• Cyber Monday (11/29): Televisions
• Wednesday (12/1): Computers