THE SCALE OF LOSS FOR RUSSIA IN UKRAINE IS STAGGERING. IN SOME AREAS, THE NUMBER OF DEAD PER DAY RIVALS WORLD WAR I NUMBERS. WHILE IT’S CLEAR RUSSIA IS LOSING MORE TROOPS THAN UKRAINE, THOSE LOSSES WON’T ADD UP TO RUSSIA SUDDENLY CALLING IT QUITS AND AGREEING TO PEACE TALKS. 

THE WHITE HOUSE JUST UNCLASSIFIED SOME INTELLIGENCE WHICH SHOWED RUSSIA TOOK 360,000 TROOPS TO WAR WITH UKRAINE IN FEBRUARY 2022. 315,000 OF THEM, ALMOST 90%, ARE NOW DEAD, WOUNDED, CAPTURED OR MISSING. 

RUSSIA IS LOSING TROOPS ALL ALONG THE MORE THAN 600 MILES OF FRONTLINES WITH UKRAINE…BUT THE NEW MEAT GRINDER IN THE WAR IS DEFINITELY AVDIIVKA, IN UKRAINE’S EAST. RUSSIAN TROOPS WERE ABLE TO MAKE SOME GAINS TO THE VILLAGE’S NORTH AND SOUTH SINCE OCTOBER–BUT AT GREAT COST. 

DURING A STRETCH IN NOVEMBER, AROUND 1000 RUSSIANS A DAY DIED TRYING TO TAKE THE VILLAGE. MOST FROM UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY FIRE AND DRONE ATTACKS. 

BEYOND THE HUMAN TOLL OF THE FIGHTING, RUSSIA ALSO LOST THOUSANDS OF TRUCKS, TANKS, & ARMORED VEHICLES. THE LOSSES ARE SO HIGH, RUSSIA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION EFFORT HAS LIKELY BEEN SET BACK BY ABOUT 18 YEARS. 

UKRAINE IS ALSO SUFFERING HIGH CASUALTY RATES, BUT THOSE NUMBERS ARE CONSIDERED STATE SECRETS BY KYIV AND AREN’T RELEASED PUBLICLY. IN AUGUST, US OFFICIALS PUT THE DEATH TOLL FOR UKRAINE’S ARMED FORCES AT AROUND 70,000. 

THE HIGH NUMBER OF TROOP LOSSES ON THE BATTLEFIELD LED TO LOOSENED RECRUITMENT STANDARDS IN RUSSIA–LIKE ALLOWING CONVICTED CRIMINALS TO SERVE ALONGSIDE REGULAR SOLDIERS AND ALLEGEDLY MAKING MIGRANTS FIGHT FOR THEIR FORCIBLY-ADOPTED MOTHERLAND. THEY MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CREATION OF A NEW RUSSIAN MILITARY UNIT MODELED ON THE WHITE GUARD UNITS FROM A HUNDRED YEARS AGO. 

A SPOKESMAN FOR UKRAINE’S GENERAL STAFF SAYS THE RUSSIAN COMMANDER OF THE DNEPR GROUP ORDERED ATTACK BATTALIONS MADE UP ENTIRELY OF OFFICERS….OFFICERS WHO SHOWED AN INABILITY TO COMMAND, LACKED PERSONAL DISCIPLINE OR HAD POOR MOTIVATION. 

THE CREATION OF THESE NEW WHITE GUARD UNITS IS NOTABLE–BECAUSE IF TRUE, IT SHOWS THE LEVEL OF DYSFUNCTION AND DISORDER WITHIN RUSSIA’S RANKS. HOWEVER, IT’S LIKELY STILL NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE VLADIMIR PUTIN’S MIND TO END HIS WAR OF CHOICE. 

UKRAINE IS RUNNING OUT OF WEAPONS, AMMO, AND POTENTIALLY WESTERN SUPPORT. RUSSIA, ON THE OTHER HAND, CAN AFFORD TO KEEP GRINDING DOWN UKRAINE DESPITE ALL THE LOSSES. BECAUSE UNLIKE UKRAINE AND ITS ALLIES, WHICH ARE DEMOCRACIES AND NEED PUBLIC SUPPORT IN ORDER TO FURTHER THE WAR EFFORT…RUSSIA IS LED BY AN AUTHORITARIAN WHO HAS A DEATH GRIP ON POWER.