If not for donated Western weaponry and military support, the war in Ukraine would be long over. If Ukraine wants to stay in the fight against Russia, however, the country needs to rely more on its own domestic production of weapons, vehicles and ammunition.
Almost as soon as Vladimir Putin took power in Russia 24 years ago, he began building up its military base. Ukraine is much smaller than Russia and didn’t really get started building up its military industrial base until after Russia’s initial incursion into eastern Ukraine in 2014.
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So, there’s a long way yet to go before Ukraine will achieve its goal of being the “arsenal to the West,” but the country is making sizeable strides.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, said last year the country tripled its weapons production from the year before.
During the recent “Ukraine: Year 2024” forum in Kyiv, Kamyshin told the crowd that 500 companies are now working in the country’s defense sector; 100 of those are state-owned, the other 400 are from private industry. Combined, Ukraine’s defense sector employs around 300,000 people now.
Drones are some of the most obvious and abundant weapons systems Ukraine produces. Kyiv wants the country producing a million unmanned systems a year, and it should achieve that goal in 2024.
The Army of Drones initiative makes fairly regular deliveries containing thousands of UAVs, which come in several types; from small FPV-style drones to the larger copter-style known as Baba Yaga to the Russians, named after a mythic character from Slavic folklore.
But Ukraine doesn’t just do unmanned aerial vehicles. Ukraine is also leading innovations in the worlds of unmanned surface vessels and unmanned ground vehicles, known as USVs and UGVs respectively.
Ukraine’s home-grown “Sea Babies” were the main characters in some of the most dramatic maritime combat footage of the last 20 years, and they are credited with helping to severely damage or outright destroy almost two dozen Russian warships in the Black Sea.
There are a number of unmanned ground vehicles now made in Ukraine. Some act as mine layers or munitions mules, others are mounted with weapons like remote-controlled machine guns. In 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will implement a few new UGV models.
Ukraine also started producing more mortar launchers, artillery shells, a domestically designed self-propelled howitzer called the Bohdana, and a newly revamped Neptune missile which will enhance the country’s long-range capabilities as well.
However, this is where things get a little tricky, because while there are plans to continue investing in the country’s defense industry, Kyiv is completely reliant on others for some of the key components needed to make bullets, bombs and missiles. For instance, Ukraine has no domestic source for gunpowder.
Additionally, if the country starts making long-range weapons that need space-based communication for their guidance systems, those systems will be at the mercy of whoever controls the orbiting satellites, and right now that certainly isn’t Ukraine.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, “Ukraine’s long-term path to success over Russia relies on the country creating a self-sufficient defensive industrial base” but needs support from the U.S. and Europe to get there.
Building new factories, installing air defense systems, as well as training a new workforce takes time, and it costs a lot of money. Securing government-funded deals with partner countries like the United States would do the most to help secure Kyiv’s future in weapons manufacturing, but that won’t happen until Congress passes more legislation.
Some private European companies are working directly with Kyiv to set up weapons factories in country, though. Rheinmetall, the largest ammunition manufacturer in Europe, announced plans to construct a new ammo production facility in Ukraine. The announcement comes in addition to previously announced plans for the company to build a factory to construct armored vehicles.
Ukrainian lawmakers are also doing their part to attract new businesses, touting the country’s battlefields as a great place for manufacturers to test new designs.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
IF NOT FOR DONATED WESTERN WEAPONRY AND MILITARY SUPPORT, THE WAR IN UKRAINE WOULD BE LONG OVER. IF UKRAINE WANTS TO STAY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIA, HOWEVER, THE COUNTRY NEEDS TO RELY MORE ON ITS OWN DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF WEAPONS, VEHICLES AND AMMUNITION.
ALMOST AS SOON AS VLADIMIR PUTIN TOOK POWER IN RUSSIA, HE BEGAN BUILDING UP ITS MILITARY BASE. UKRAINE, IS MUCH SMALLER THAN RUSSIA AND DIDN’T REALLY GET STARTED BUILDING UP ITS MILITARY INDUSTRIAL BASE UNTIL AFTER RUSSIA’S INITIAL INCURSION INTO EASTERN UKRAINE IN 2014.
SO, THERE’S A LONG WAY YET TO GO BEFORE UKRAINE WILL ACHIEVE ITS GOAL OF BEING THE “ARSENAL TO THE WEST,” BUT THE COUNTRY IS MAKING SIZEABLE TRIDES.
OLEKSANDR KAMYSHIN, UKRAINE’S STRATEGIC INDUSTRIES MINISTER, SAYS LAST YEAR THE COUNTRY TRIPLED ITS WEAPONS PRODUCTION FROM THE YEAR BEFORE. DURING THE RECENT “UKRAINE: YEAR 2024” FORUM IN KYIV, KAMYSHIN TOLD THE CROWD 500 COMPANIES ARE NOW WORKING IN THE COUNTRY’S DEFENSE SECTOR; 100 OF THOSE ARE STATE-OWNED, THE OTHER 400 ARE FROM PRIVATE INDUSTRY. COMBINED, UKRAINE’S DEFENSE SECTOR EMPLOYS AROUND 300,000 PEOPLE NOW.
DRONES ARE SOME OF THE MOST OBVIOUS AND ABUNDANT WEAPONS SYSTEMS UKRAINE PRODUCES. KYIV WANTS THE COUNTRY PRODUCING A MILLION UNMANNED SYSTEMS A YEAR AND SHOULD ACHIEVE THAT GOAL IN 2024.
THE ARMY OF DRONES INITIATIVE MAKES FAIRLY REGULAR DELIVERIES CONTAINING THOUSANDS OF UAVs, WHICH COME IN SEVERAL TYPES; FROM SMALL FPV-STYLE DRONES TO THE COPTER KNOWN AS BABA YAGA, NAMED AFTER A MYTHIC CHARACTER FROM SLAVIC FOLKLORE.
BUT UKRAINE DOESN’T JUST DO UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES. IT’S ALSO LEADING INNOVATIONS IN THE WORLDS OF UNMANNED SURFACE VESSELS AND UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLES, KNOWN AS USVs AND UGVs RESPECTIVELY.
UKRAINE’S HOME-GROWN SEA BABIES WERE THE MAIN CHARACTERS IN SOME OF THE MOST DRAMATIC MARITIME COMBAT FOOTAGE OF THE LAST 20 YEARS AND ARE CREDITED WITH HELPING TO SEVERELY DAMAGE OR OUTRIGHT DESTROY ALMOST TWO DOZEN RUSSIAN WARSHIPS IN THE BLACK SEA.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLES NOW MADE IN UKRAINE. SOME ACT AS MINE LAYERS OR MUNITIONS MULES, OTHERS ARE MOUNTED WITH WEAPONS LIKE REMOTE-CONTROLLED MACHINE GUNS. IN 2024, UKRAINE SAYS IT WILL IMPLEMENT A FEW NEW UGV MODELS.
UKRAINE ALSO STARTED PRODUCING MORE MORTAR LAUNCHERS, ARTILLERY SHELLS, A DOMESTICALLY DESIGNED SELF-PROPELLED HOWITZER CALLED THE BOHDANA, AND A NEWLY REVAMPED NEPTUNE MISSILE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE COUNTRY’S LONG-RANGE CAPABILITIES AS WELL.
AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE TRICKY, BECAUSE WHILE THERE ARE PLANS TO CONTINUE INVESTING IN THE COUNTRY’S DEFENSE INDUSTRY UKRAINE IS COMPLETELY RELIANT ON OTHERS FOR SOME OF THE KEY COMPONENTS NEEDED TO MAKE BULLETS, BOMBS AND MISSILES. LIKE GUNPOWDER. YES, THAT’S RIGHT, UKRAINE HAS NO DOMESTIC SOURCE FOR GUNPOWDER.
AND IF UKRAINE STARTS MAKING LONG-RANGE WEAPONS THAT NEED SPACE-BASED COMMUNICATION FOR THEIR GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, THOSE SYSTEMS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF WHOEVER CONTROLS THE ORBITING SATELLITES, AND RIGHT NOW THAT CERTAINLY ISN’T UKRAINE.
SO, AS THE INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR PUT IT, UKRAINE’S LONG-TERM PATH TO SUCCESS OVER RUSSIA RELIES ON THE COUNTRY CREATING A SELF-SUFFICIENT DEFENSIVE INDUSTRIAL BASE BUT NEEDS SUPPORT FROM THE U.S. AND EUROPE TO GET THERE.
BUILDING NEW FACTORIES, AND INSTALLING THE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS THEY’LL LIKELY NEED, AS WELL AS TRAINING A NEW WORKFORCE TAKES TIME, AND ALSO COSTS A LOT OF MONEY. SECURING GOVERNMENT-FUNDED DEALS WITH PARTNER COUNTRIES LIKE THE UNITED STATES WOULD DO THE MOST TO HELP SECURE KYIV’S FUTURE IN WEAPONS MANUFACTURING, BUT THAT WON’T HAPPEN UNTIL CONGRESS PASSES MORE LEGISLATION.
SOME PRIVATE EUROPEAN COMPANIES ARE WORKING DIRECTLY WITH KYIV TO SET UP WEAPONS FACTORIES IN COUNTRY, AND THE GOVERNMENT IS TOUTING ITS BATTLEFIELDS AS A GREAT PLACE FOR MANUFACTURERS TO TEST NEW DESIGNS.
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