The Census Bureau released population estimates for the year ending July 1, 2021 Tuesday, which showed the United States set a record for slowest year-to-year population growth ever. From July 2020 to July 2021, the U.S. population grew by 392,665, an increase of just 0.1%. That makes this past year the first time since 1937 the nation’s population grew by less than 1 million people.
“Population growth has been slowing for years because of lower birth rates and decreasing net international migration, all while mortality rates are rising due to the aging of the nation’s population,” Census Bureau Population Division demographer Kristie Wilder said in a news release. “Now, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this combination has resulted in a historically slow pace of growth.”
It appears the over 800,000 Americans who have died due to COVID-19 played a significant role in the slowest population growth ever. Tuesday’s Census Bureau estimates break down the increase in population between natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and net international migrations (the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country). According to the Census Bureau, net international migration (244,622) exceeded the natural increase (148,043) for the first time ever.
University of New Hampshire demographer Kenneth Johnson described the decline in natural population increase as “stunning.” According to Johnson, natural increase hasn’t been this small in more than 80 years.
“Of course most of this is COVID, but not all of it,” Johnson said. “U.S. natural increase was already at a low ebb prior to COVID with the fertility rate hitting a new record low each year and deaths steadily rising due to the population aging.”
The U.S. is expected to see a decrease in deaths once the pandemic dies down. However, population growth likely won’t bounce back that much due to fewer births. According to William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s metropolitan policy program, this will increase the need for immigration by younger workers whose taxes can support programs such as Social Security.
“We have an aging population and that means fewer women in child-bearing ages,” Frey said. “We see younger people putting off having children and they’re going to have fewer children.”
