What victory over Ukraine looks like for Putin’s Russia: Weapons and Warfare

Feb 14, 2024 at 03:00 AM CST

In this episode of Weapons and Warfare, host Ryan Robertson dives into how Putin might describe a victory for Russia. — Image credit: Reuters

In this episode of Weapons and Warfare, take a deeper look at how Vladimir Putin might define victory in his illegal war as winter slows the fight for both Ukraine and Russia. Host Ryan Robertson visits with Maj. Marnix “Max” Provoost, a Ph.D. researcher at the Netherlands Defence Academy and author of a piece for the Modern Institute of War at West Point titled ‘What is Russia’s theory of victory in Ukraine?’

Also featured in this episode:

Ukraine claims a historic combat first in its war against the illegal Russian invasion.
Senior enlisted leadership testifies in Congress about the need for better pay and housing to improve enlistment and retention.
The Defense Department approves the sale of a dozen attack helicopters to an African nation.
Why a next-level thermal optic could be a game-changer for precision shooters.

You can subscribe to the Weapons and Warfare podcast on the platform of your choosing here.

Ryan Robertson is the anchor of the Straight Arrow News video podcast Weapons and Warfare. He wore many hats in his career — from photographer to news director — and firmly believes honest journalism will save our Republic.

Tags: War, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Weapons, U.S. Congress

Make SAN preferred on Google Show Transcript

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

HELLO EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO THIS EDITION OF WEAPONS AND WARFARE. IF YOU’RE A FAN OF THE SHOW YOU MAY NOTICE I’M NOT IN MY NORMAL SURROUNDINGS…THAT’S BECAUSE WE ARE COMING TO YOU FROM THE FLOOR OF THIS YEAR’S WARFARE SYMPOSIUM, HOSTED BY THE AIR AND SPACE FORCES ASSOCIATION IN AURORA, COLORADO. FUN FACT, I LEARNED HOW TO RIDE DIRTBIKES ABOUT 25 MINS AWAY FROM HERE WHEN I WAS GROWING UP.

JUST AHEAD ON THIS WEEK’S EPISODE, WE HAVE A GREAT CONVERSATION WITH MAJOR MARNIX PROVOOST. HE’S AN OFFICER IN THE DUTCH MILITARY STUDYING FOR A DOCTORATE…AND I GOT THE CHANCE TO PICK HIS BRAIN ON A PAPER HE AUTHORED ABOUT THE RUSSIAN THEORY OF VICTORY. VERY INTERESTING STUFF.

PLUS OUR WEAPON OF THE WEEK IS A NEW THERMAL OPTIC THAT COULD BE A GAME-CHANGER FOR PRECISION SHOOTERS. THE CLARITY ON THIS THING IS NOTHING SHORT OF AMAZING.

BUT IT WOULDN’T BE WEAPONS AND WARFARE IF WE DIDN’T START WITH SOME HEADLINES YOU MAY HAVE MISSED THIS WEEK…

OVER THE LAST TWO YEAR’S–THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE AND SUBSEQUENT WAR SET MANY NEW PRECEDENTS–AND NOW WE HAVE ANOTHER COMBAT FIRST.

ACCORDING TO THE UKRAINIAN ORGANIZATION ‘ARMY OF DRONES’, UKRAINIAN UAV OPERATORS USED AN AIRBORNE DRONE TO SPOT FOR A GROUND-BASED DRONE THAT HAD A MACHINE GUN TURRET MOUNTED TO IT. THE DYNAMIC DRONE DUO WAS ABLE TO TARGET AND ELIMINATE MULTIPLE RUSSIAN POSITIONS. AND PREVIOUS VIDEOS POSTED TO TELEGRAM AND TWITTER OF OTHER OPERATIONS SHOW JUST HOW EFFECTIVE GROUND-BASED DRONES CAN BE. IN ONE OF THE MOST EFFECTIVE INSTANCES–A SMALL DRONE LOADED WITH EXPLOSIVES TRAVELED MORE THAN TWO MILES THROUGH ENEMY TERRITORY TO TAKE OUT A BRIDGE–IT’S LIKE A MACABRE MODERN DAY LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD.

IN AN EFFORT TO BOLSTER RECRUITING NUMBERS, THE NAVY SAYS YOU NO LONGER NEED A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR GED TO ENLIST. POTENTIAL RECRUITS CAN NOW PUT THEIR NAME ON THE DOTTED LINE AS LONG THEY SCORE 50 OR HIGHER ON THE ARMED FORCES QUALIFICATION TEST.

THIS MOVE COMES JUST DAYS AFTER EACH BRANCH’S HIGHEST-RANKING SENIOR ENLISTED LEADER TESTIFIED IN FRONT OF CONGRESS THAT PAY REFORM, BETTER BENEFITS, AND IMPROVED HOUSING ARE THE SERVICE’S BIGGEST NEEDS WHEN IT COMES TO RECRUITING NEW TROOPS.

[CMSAF Joanne Bass, Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force]

“We can’t have service members distracted by whether or not they are able to live in safe, quality housing and dormitories, have access to affordable childcare, or any other challenge unique to serving our nation. To include pay and compensation.”

[RYAN ROBERTSON]

CHIEF BASS WENT ON TO SAY THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A TARGETED PAY RAISE FOR SERVICE MEMBERS WAS 2007.

NIGERIA’S NEW PLAN TO DEAL WITH ISLAMIST INSURGENTS AND BANDITS–INCLUDES A PIT OF VIPERS.

NOT LITERALLY, OF COURSE. NO, A DOZEN AH-1Z VIPER ATTACK HELICOPTERS ARE HEADED TO NIGERIA. VIPERS ARE GOOD FOR RECON, ESCORT, AND STRIKE MISSIONS.

THE DOD RECENTLY ANNOUNCED FINAL APPROVAL OF THE SALE AND GIVING IT THE GREEN LIGHT, BUT THE DETAILS WERE ORIGINALLY HAMMERED OUT BACK IN 2022. AN ADDITIONAL $7.7 MILLION DEAL WAS AWARDED TO NORTHROP GRUMMAN TO PROVIDE 32 MISSION COMPUTERS FOR THE BELL HELICOPTERS. THE CONTRACT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED IN JUNE.

–

THIS MONTH MARKS THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE. WHEN VLADIMIR PUTIN’S TROOPS CROSSED THE BORDER ON FEBRUARY 24, 2022 FEW KNEW HOW THINGS WOULD TURNOUT, PROBABLY FEWER STILL WOULD HAVE PREDICTED A PRACTICAL STALEMATE TWO YEARS IN.
UKRAINE’S VICTORY MEANS ONE THING, A COMPLETE RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL. FOR PUTIN VICTORY IS MORE COMPLEX. TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THAT COULD LOOK LIKE, I RECENTLY SPOKE WITH MAX PROVOOST, A MAJOR IN THE ROYAL NETHERLANDS ARMY WORKING AS A PhD RESEARCHER AT THE NETHERLANDS DEFENCE ACADEMY. HE IS ALSO THE AUTHOR OF A PIECE THAT WAS PUBLISHED BY THE ‘MODERN WAR INSTITUTE’ TITLED ‘WHAT IS RUSSIA’S THEORY OF VICTORY IN UKRAINE?’.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“You have like four possible outcomes in a war, and the highest achievable is a political victory. below that lies a military victory below that lies a military defeat. and below that lies a political defeat.”
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
WHILE THOSE MAY SEEM CUT AND DRY, ACCORDING TO MAX, THEY ARE NOT. AND IT MAY ULTIMATELY WHAT RUSSIA IS ANGLING FOR.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Because if you suffer a military defeat, but you are still able to create a political narrative, that implies a political victory, then it’s that last thing that counts the political victory.”
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
ON THE SURFACE IT MIGHT SEEM LIKE THE WAR IS ABOUT RUSSIA TAKING BACKING SOMETHING THAT WAS ONCE THEIRS. BUT AS THE MAJOR EXPLAINS, MUCH OF PUTIN’S ACTIONS ARE ABOUT PREVENTING WHAT A FREE UKRAINE WOULD LOOK LIKE TO RUSSIAN CITIZENS.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“If the Russian people see that adopting a different political and economic system can bring them more freedom and prosperity and that they aren’t necessarily deterministically bound by a narrative that the people suffer and serve the state, then that might cause some instability in Russia because people start questioning the Russian authoritarian rule and the oligarchic economy that is currently active in the country.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
TO SOME EXTENT, AT LEAST FOR NOW, PUTIN HAS GOT WHAT HE WANTS. THE DELAYED GROWTH OF DEMOCRACY IN UKRAINE.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Ukraine, I think, as written down in its constitution that as long as the country is in a state of emergency, or in fact, at war, no democratic elections should be held. And there was a lot of discussion by the end of last year, whether it’s Zelenski should hold elections or not, in the end, I think he decided not to do so.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
”It’s hard to say you have a democracy if you’re not going to hold the Democratic vote, right?”
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
Yeah. And I don’t want to judge his decisions. Of course, there there are…
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
“But From the Russian propaganda perspective, it’s like, we stopped their vote. So that’s the first brick to fall to tearing down the democracy. Stop….
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
Exactly. You see that Solinsky, his political opponents, his political opposition, they questioned his decision not to hold the elections anymore.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
AND WHILE SUPPORTERS OF UKRAINE CONTINUE TO PUSH FOR MORE MONEY AND HARDWARE. THE MAJOR SAYS THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST PATH FOR VICTORY.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Strategy implies letting Ukraine become a true democracy against all odds, but showing that despite Russia’s efforts, they still can hold elections, they still have a true democracy with opposition etc. And the other thing is to get that economy by able again. And that means that you need, I think, to get Ukrainian export through the Black Sea open again.”
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
Max, hopefully, the powers that be will listen to you. And in a couple of months, we can circle back and there’ll be a completely different narrative to talk about, right. I mean, we can hope for that, right.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
“Maybe.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
All right, sir.
[Maj. Marnix Provoost, MA | PhD Student]
Thanks for having me.
[RYAN ROBERTSON]
Yeah, absolutely
THANKS AGAIN TO MAJOR MAX PROVOOST AND IF YOU WANT TO HEAR OUR FULL CONVERSATION BE SURE TO CHECK OUT A BONUS EPISODE OF OUR PODCAST. THAT WILL BE OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

–

THE LATE DAVID HACKWORTH, ONCE SAID “IF YOU FIND YOURSELF IN A FAIR FIGHT, YOU DIDN’T PLAN YOUR MISSION PROPERLY.” WITH THAT IN MIND, THE RETIRED ARMY OFFICER AND JOURNALIST WOULD PROBABLY HAVE LIKED OUR WEAPON OF THE WEEK. THAT’S BECAUSE IN THE HANDS OF THE RIGHT PERSON, THE TELEDYNE HISS HD LONG-RANGE COOLED SNIPER SIGHT IS ALL ABOUT GIVING THE USER AN UNFAIR ADVANTAGE.

INTRODUCED TO THE PUBLIC AT THIS YEAR’S SHOT SHOW IN LAS VEGAS, THE SIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE AN IMMEDIATE HIT WITH PRECISION SHOOTERS, AND IT’S EASY TO SEE WHY.

FIRST, IT MOUNTS RIGHT TO THE RIFLE, ESSENTIALLY A CLIP-ON THAT SITS IN FRONT OF THE RIFLE’S OPTICS. MAKING IT AN EASY-ON/EASY-OFF TOOL FOR OPERATORS CONDUCTING RECONNAISSANCE, FORCE PROTECTION, AND FORWARD OBSERVATION MISSIONS.

BUILT BY FLIR, THE SAME PEOPLE THAT DEVELOPED THERMAL IMAGING GEAR THAT ALLOWS FIREFIGHTERS TO FIND HOT SPOTS WHEN TRYING TO PUT OUT FIRES, OR HELICOPTER CREWS TO FIND PEOPLE ON THE GROUND, THIS NEW SIGHT OFFERS LONG-RANGE OPTICS AND AN H-D DISPLAY WITH DETAILED IMAGERY FOR SNIPERS AND MACHINE GUN CREWS.

HOW DETAILED? USERS CAN EXPECT HIGH-RESOLUTION VIEWS AT MORE THAN 7,000 FEET, OR A MILE AND A THIRD. THEY’RE ALSO ABLE TO WATCH FIRED ROUNDS IN FLIGHT EVEN WITHOUT TRACERS. THAT ALLOWS SHOOTERS TO ADJUST TARGETING ON THE FLY. SOMETHING THEY’RE ABLE TO DO IN BROAD DAYLIGHT, AS WELL AS NIGHT.

OF THEIR NEWEST PRODUCT TELEDYNE’S VICE PRESIDENT OF SURVEILLANCE STRATEGY AND DEVELOPMENT SAYS…

“The new ThermoSight HISS-HD is the unmatched choice for precision shooters looking for a versatile, lightweight thermal sight that increases their range and accuracy.

With HISS-HD, we’ve leveraged our world-class thermal imaging technology to provide marksmen with a superior tool to identify and engage targets anywhere, in any environment.”

WEIGHING LESS THAN FIVE POUNDS WITH BATTERIES AND MEASURING A LITTLE MORE THAN TEN AND A HALF INCHES LONG, FLIR SAYS THE SIGHT WILL TRIPLE THE PERFORMANCE OF MACHINE GUN SIGHTS AND DOUBLES IT WHEN COMPARED TO EXISTING THERMAL SIGHTS DESIGNED FOR SNIPER RIFLES.

–

Alright, folks, it’s time once again for one of my favorite segments of the show. It’s called comps, check. It’s our opportunity to get to check in with you the viewers and listeners and you know, we peruse our social media feeds, we check our inboxes for any questions or comments that you have out there, and try to answer those to the best of our ability. So let’s go ahead and get started. The first comps check this week comes to us on a story that we had done on some Ukrainian special operations forces who had used unmanned surface drones. Sea babies is what they’re called to take down another Russian missile boat. The missile was the Ivana vets and there were six sea babies that attacked and took the the boat down. And I started the story off with our vertical version of the story that aired on you know, Tiktok and YouTube shorts. I said, Oh, they did it again. Ukraine second other boats. Well, that was enough to prompt this response from Mr. Mike Lee. Mike is saying stop saying Ukraine did it again. I want Ukraine to win. But say NATO did it again.

Here’s the thing, Mike. The only forces fighting inside Ukraine right now. Are Ukrainian forces and Russian forces. NATO is not there. Yes, a lot of the countries supporting Ukraine also happen to be members of NATO. It’s not too far fetched to imagine a world where that’s possible since NATO, mostly European countries in Ukraine happens to be in Europe. So while it’s while it’s true that a lot of the support a lot of the weapons systems that Ukraine is getting are from NATO allied countries, and might be some systems that NATO also uses. Let’s make a clear distinction here, Mike. NATO is not fighting a war against Russia. Right now Ukraine is fighting a war against Russia. Russian propagandists wants you to think that Russia is fighting a war against NATO because it helps justify their their illegal annexation of several parts of Ukraine and also helps the Russians justify their invasion into another sovereign country. But NATO and Russia not fighting a war right now. So Mike, I’m with you. I hope Ukraine wins also. But let’s be clear, the fight is between Ukraine and Russia right now. And that’s it. So hope that answers your question.

Let’s go and move on to our next comms check. And this story, or this question comes to us on a story that we had done about Tower 22. This was the U.S. military outpost in Jordan, that was struck by a another drone and aerial drone operated by a militant group. The drone was able to enter the airspace over the post and strike some sleeping quarters. Dozens of people were injured and three U.S. service members were killed. So crash is saying they are lying to us. No way they would have turned off radar just because our drone was coming in. They are lying once again, not sure who they are, whether it’s the government or DOD, or just some boogeyman who makes things up. But crash. To your point of they wouldn’t have turned off the radar. Well, they didn’t turn off the radar, the U.S. military personnel that we’re operating at Tower 22. They turned off the air defenses, because they thought it was a U.S. drone that was returning and not a militant drone that was attacking.

So the air defense system, which has actually we’ve done a weapon of the week on one of the systems employed at Tower 22 It’s called the coyote system from Raytheon. They have those they’re at Tower 22. But they were deactivated again, because they the personnel there thought it was a U.S. manned drone returning many of the drones that that these militant groups are using in Syria and Iraq and Jordan and in that Yemen, that whole area. They’re all Iranian made and Iranian designed. And some of those Iranian design drones do look an awful lot like American drones because they’re basically rip offs. So it’s not necessarily outside the realm of possibility to think that this drone operated by a militant group, which looks potentially like a U.S. drone, which means that we probably have a similar radar signature to a U.S. drone was mistaken for a U.S. drone.

Now, does this mean that the U.S. military needs to kind of readjust their method of operations when drones returned to base, maybe, especially if militants in the area are picking up on what those protocols are. But to your point crash, no one is lying about the radar being down because nobody ever said the radar was down, the air defenses were taken down. But the radar would stay up radar in and of itself does not have the ability to take down any craft necessarily. It’s more about tracking where those craft are and where they’re going. So, crash, I hope that clears some things up for you.

For you, viewers and listeners out there if if there’s something on the show that you see here, and you know, you want an answer to it, or you have a comment that you would like to to make known to the world, please do so it might be featured on a future segment of comms check. Also, you can feel free to send us an email Weapons of Warfare at san.com all spelled out weapons and warfare at san.com. We check that as well. So all of our social feeds or email, if you want to get in touch with us, that’s how you do it. And hopefully your comment or suggestion or whatever it may be gets featured on the next episode of Weapons and Warfare.

All opinions expressed in this segment are solely the opinions of the contributors.

Well, folks, we are just about ready to put a bow on this episode of weapons of warfare. But before we say goodbye, I want to wrap up with something that we talked about at the beginning of the show the story about unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine used as spotters for unmanned ground vehicles armed with turrets taking out multiple Russian positions. For anyone paying attention to the fighting overseas, it is blatantly obvious that warfare has changed, and it continues to change. Necessity is still the mother of invention, though, and the situation in Ukraine right now, dictates in order for Ukraine to simply compete with, let alone defeat a much larger Russian force. It needs to make use of new technology and exploit it to the fullest. And a lot of that technology here at the warfare symposium is very similar to if not the exact same technology that’s being used in Ukraine right now.

It’s cutting edge. It’s advanced. It’s all the adjectives you can think to describe it. But let’s not forget, it’s dangerous to and not just because these are weapons, but because of what these weapons can do and what they do to their users. Much like the Predator drone strikes of the Obama administration, which were highly criticized for killing indiscriminately, and often attacking misidentified targets. Removing the human from the frontline may preserve the body, but it could also leave the mind in tatters. Many of the predator pilots from the Obama era reported suffering from PTSD, so much like militaries the world over are learning how to improve war fighting based on lessons from Ukraine. I’m hopeful the U.S. military learned from our own nation’s past with drones and recognizes that as much as warfare looks like video games today, there is no rebooting or responding in the real world and the effects of the battle will last a whole lot longer than the time it takes to recharge the controller. That’s going to do it for us here this week for weapons and warfare. If you have any thoughts that you want to share with us, please do so on our social media feeds. You can also email us at weapons and warfare at san.com. But for senior producer Brett Baker, video editor Brian Spencer and graphic designer Dakota Piteo. I’m Ryan Robertson with straight arrow news signing off.

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