Why the Israel-Gaza ceasefire may be doomed

THE ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASERFIRE IN GAZA WENT INTO EFFECT A FEW DAYS AGO. THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW EACH PART OF THE THREE-PHASE DEAL WILL PLAY OUT, AND WORLD LEADERS LIKE PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP–AREN’T CONFIDENT THE CEASEFIRE WILL HOLD.

EACH OF THE THREE STAGES OF THE DEAL IS SUPPOSED TO LAST 6 WEEKS. PHASE ONE CALLS FOR A COMPLETE CEASEFIRE AND THE EXCHANGE OF 33 HOSTAGES FOR 1,900 PALESTINIAN PRISONERS BEING HELD IN ISRAEL. THE 33 HOSTAGES TO BE RELEASED ARE MOSTLY WOMEN AND CHILDREN, BUT ALSO SOME OLDER MEN. CIVILILIANS CAN ALSO RETURN HOME TO GAZA UNDER PHASE ONE, AND ISRAEL WILL ALLOW MORE AID IN.

PHASE TWO WOULD SEE A PERMANENT CEASEFIRE ESTABLISHED, THE RETURN OF ALL REMAINING LIVING HOSTAGES, AND MORE PALESTINIAN PRISONERS BEING RELEASED.

PHASE THREE DEALS WITH RETURNING THE BODIES OF THE DEAD HOSTAGES TO ISRAEL, AND THE RECONSTRUCTION OF GAZA.

LESS THAN 48 HOURS AFTER THE CEASEFIRE WENT INTO EFFECT, I SPOKE WITH AVI MELAMED. HE’S A FORMER ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE OFFICER AND HOSTAGE NEGOTIATOR. HE NOW HEADS THE ORGANIZATION INSIDE THE MIDDLE EAST.

AVI MALAMED, WE’VE BEEN TALKING WITH YOU OVER THE COURSE OF THE WAR. YOU USED TO BE A NEGOTIATOR. WHEN YOU HEARD OF THE DEAL BEING REACHED, WHEN YOU HEARD OF THE CONDITIONS, WHAT WERE SOME OF YOUR IMMEDIATE THOUGHTS?

Avi Melamed:
Well, first and foremost, of course, I was happy for the families of those that their loved one had been freed and released. I’m happy for the people of Gaza who have been living in a terrible condition for the last 15 months. At the same time, obviously, there is a deep concern about the rest of the hostages that are still in Gaza Strip and their families, of course, who are longing for them to come back.

So it’s a mixed feeling, of course, as you could understand. And above that, there is I would say, substantial concern that we will be heading TO a very turbulent process ahead, a convoluted one, in the context of releasing the hostages.

THE DEAL IS, YOU KNOW, PRECARIOUS AT BEST. AND THERE COULD BE A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH SIDES TO, TO BACK OUT OF THE DEAL. DO YOU FEEL CONFIDENT THAT PHASE ONE– WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, SUPPOSED TO BE A, A WEEKS LONG ORDEAL–DO YOU FEEL CONFIDENT THAT PHASE ONE WILL EVENTUALLY GO INTO PHASE TWO? DO YOU FEEL CONFIDENCE THAT THIS DEAL WILL LEAD TO ALL OF THE HOSTAGES BEING RELEASED?

Avi Melamed:
I put it this way, I feel more confident that we will complete phase one. I’m much less confident about the success odds of phase two at this point. As matter of fact, I would say that I would even say it’s 60-40, meaning that I unfortunately think it’s more likely not to be successful in the second phase. The meaning of that is that we will probably witness a prolonging and continuing and convoluted process way beyond what I think and hope it should be. So this is the way I view the things right now.

WHAT PARTS OF PHASE 2 DO YOU THINK WILL FAIL?

Avi Melamed:
Look, Hamas launched October 7 attack for different reasons. One of the major reasons which always have been Hamas’ major card was that Hamas told the Palestinians, he said, ‘Look, I will release all the Palestinians that are imprisoned in Israel.’ And that has been always something that Hamas market and particularly after the episode of the kidnapping of Israeli soldier, Gilad Shaleed, that provided Hamas with a lot of political credibility and popularity within the Palestinians.
Comes October 7, Hamas is attacking Israel, doing what he’s doing. It results in an enormous war. Gaza is destroyed. Dozens of thousands of fatalities. It will take years to rehabilitate Gaza. Billions and billions of dollars. Nobody knows exactly where those dollars are going to come from. And so Hamas…potentially only card in the end of the day to present to his brothers, the Palestinians, as an achievement is the release of the Palestinian prisoners.
Now, here is the difficult thing because Hamas could come and say, ‘I want to release all the Palestinian prisoners,’ let’s say 4,000, 5,000, whatever the number is. And Israel may insist that it’s not willing to release all of the prisoners, but some of the prisoners must remain and in addition Israel say, ‘No, some prisoners will not go back to Palestinian territories, they will be expelled elsewhere.’ In other words, any kind of Israeli refusal, any kind of Israeli counter demand is kind of like grading Hamas potential, one and only Hamas potential achievement to put it this way. And so we are looking here at a situation where there is a friction, a collision between these two things.

Hamas is in a position that he basically could say to himself, ‘Look, I have nothing to lose. You know, I have nothing to lose. I must insist to get this card and exhaust this card to the maximum, which is maybe not the case. Maybe Israel will refuse to do that. Maybe there will be counter pressure on Hamas to be flexible on it. And so the bottom line of this whole convoluted situation is that it unfortunately fuels further, I would say, odds that the whole process will be stumbling and falling apart time and again. And so that’s the reason for one of the major reasons for the concern about the continuation and success odds of this process.

YOU USED TO BE A NEGOTIATOR. WOULD YOU HAVE MADE THIS DEAL? WOULD YOU HAVE, WOULD YOU HAVE AGREED TO THIS DEAL?

Avi Melamed:
Look, there are many things involved here. I was, more than once often, asked by people like, ‘If you were the Prime Minister, what would have you done? Or if you were in a policy making decision, what have you done? It’s a very, very complex situation. I think that, in the end of the day, for the sake of the people–and I’m talking about both Israelis and Palestinians–there is no going back to October 6. Meaning in the sense that Hamas is continuing to dictate as it was able to dictate the trajectory of the conflict for the last 40 years. October 7, for me was not a surprise in the sense that I, in many occasions, including in my recent book, Inside the Middle East: Entering the New Era that was published in 2022, I wrote very specifically and I said as long as Hamas is going to be excepted from governmental accountability, as long as the Palestinians are going to be excepted from holding their leadership accountable, the outcome of that is only– one and only one– and that is more death and suffering and destruction for both people. And this is exactly what happened. And so that’s what I mean when I’m saying no going back to October 6th. How do you do that? What does it take to get there?

These are part of the many questions involved, bearing in mind that I’ve been saying all along the way, and I will say it very clearly; Hamas is not going to disappear. It’s going to be part and parcel of the Palestinian people. It goes back to the big question. What the Palestinian people are going to do internally following October 7th? And what happened following October 7th to Gaza Strip?
Now this is, you know, Ryan, this is a question that is enormously significant. Particularly for Western audience because– I’m going to surprise the audience. You know, in our Western mindset, if our leadership, for example, would have done something like October 7th and everything that comes after, we will hold our leadership accountable. We will say you have caused us an enormous destruction. You have to pay for it. You have to step down. You have to go away. I don’t know.
This is terrible but, I will tell you that within the Palestinians and in the Arab world there are those today say Hamas is marketing victory. And there are Palestinians and Arabs who buys that, who subscribe to that. We could go later on, maybe in some other occasion, elaborate about the psyche involving that. But I think it’s important for Western audience to understand it because it has a lot of ramifications, unfortunately, negative ones. In other words, if you don’t hold your leadership accountable, if you always blame somebody else for your leadership failure, for your misjudgment, you basically doom yourself to be locked in a tragic loop.

And you know, as it happens–particularly today we are talking as you probably know, the Israeli Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi resigned. Resigned basically saying ‘I have failed on October 7th. This was my mission and I failed to protect the people of Israel.’

And the interesting thing is that despite the fact that following October 7th, he was able to lead the IDF to a very, very impressive achievements in many different arenas, in the end of the day, that did not exempt him from the responsibility. And he basically said, ‘Yes, I’m responsible for what happened in October 7th, the failure to protect the people of Israel and I’m resigning,’ As he should, because it’s about taking responsibility for your own failure. And that’s the reason why I bring that issue to the discussion, particularly for Western audience, who should be aware that we are dealing with quite different minds.

WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW. I’M SURE THERE’S GOING TO BE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR US TO PICK YOUR BRAIN DOWN THE ROAD, BUT REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR TIME TODAY. AND THANK YOU, SIR.

Avi Melamed:
Yeah, thank you, Ryan. Take care. Bye-bye.

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