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U.S. Elections

Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the Senate?

Nov 08, 2022

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On midterm election night, the most important questions include which party will come out with a majority in the House and Senate. Polling indicates neither party is likely to walk away with a big margin in the Senate. Here’s why.

The most important races are:

Democrats currently have a 50-50 majority in the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tie-breaking vote.

If Republicans or Democrats won every single race listed above, the winner would have a 53-47 majority. That’s far from a filibuster-proof majority. If Republicans and Democrats flip each one of the seats listed above, we’d be right back at where we started: a 50-50 split with VP Harris breaking the tie.

Moral of the story: Even with success at the polls, neither party has a strong probability of walking out with a large lead.

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