Global population will surpass 8 billion this year, UN projects

The United Nations projects the world’s population will surpass 8 billion later this year and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023.

In a report released on World Population Day, the U.N. also said global population growth fell below 1% in 2020 for the first time since 1950. Despite that, the agency’s projections show the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and a peak of around 10.4 billion during the 2080s. It is forecast to remain at that level until 2100.

The U.N. says more than half the projected increase in population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

The report comes one year after estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau found that U.S. population growth dipped to its lowest rate since the nation’s founding. The United States grew by only 0.1%, with an additional 392,665 added to the U.S. population from July 2020 to July 2021. While the U.S. has been experiencing slow population growth for years, the pandemic exacerbated that trend.

Fertility rates have also been in decline globally over the past few decades according to data from the World Bank. In 1961, women around the world on average had five children compared to an average of 2.4 in 2019. While fertility rates are projected to continue declining globally, it’s occurring later and at a slower pace in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

“Europe and Northern America are projected to begin experiencing population decline in the late 2030s due to sustained low levels of fertility,” the U.N. report said. The share of working age people between ages 25 and 64 has been increasing in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean “thanks to recent reductions in fertility,” according to the report.

The U.N. added this “demographic dividend” provides an opportunity for accelerated economic growth for those countries.