How drones are changing global naval power

Hey everybody. Peter Zen here come to you from Yosemite. Really doesn’t matter beyond that, because I’ve been pushed into my tent by some thunder boomers for the last hour. Anyway, thought I’d use the wed as an excuse to talk about the future of navies around the world. Since World War One, really World War Two, the carrier has been the backbone of everything that matters, largely because they can project power, and more conventional ships, like, say, battleships, have to get into engagement range, which is measured in miles or 10s of miles, whereas a carrier can launch fighters and fighter bombers from hundreds of miles away and never be in danger itself. That’s why the Soviets invested so much in trying to break through the American carrier perimeter with things like air launch cruise missiles or submarines, to questionable effect, but anyway, that was the goal. Now, for the last 30 years, the United States has been the only game in town. There’s not just carriers. The United States has it has super carriers. It has 10 of what most countries consider carriers which are the core of the Marine Expeditionary units, and then another 10 of the nibbitz class carriers, which are the ones that outshoot everybody. One of those has more projection based firepower than every other Navy in the world, with the exception of the Japanese and the British navies, who are allies anyway, so big difference. And then, of course, the United States is in the process of floating three Ford class carriers, which will be even more powerful. So from a conventional naval point of view, the United States is in a league all of its law and might as well be on its own planet. The question is whether that is changing. One of the things that we have seen in the Ukraine wars, the Ukrainians have been able to modify speedboats and literally jet skis with remote controls and put a couple 100 pounds or 500 pounds of bombs on them and set them off. And in doing so, they’ve basically sunk or incapacitated the vast majority of the Black Sea Navy of the Russians. It’s actually worse than it sounds, because the Russians moved a lot of ships into the Black Sea just before the war, and those are all gone to so recently, the Russians abandoned the port of the sevista pool. Basically they were not having naval assets in the Crimean peninsula anymore. They’ve moved everything back to Novorossiysk, but the Ukrainians have already hidden Novorossiysk, so they’re probably gonna have to move it back to tuapsa or maybe even Abkhazia. Basically, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is no more. It’s no longer a fleet. In being it no longer has the capacity to project power, and it’s basically hiding in its supposed home waters. Say what you will, about the Ukrainians. They’re creative, and they’re working with very, very little. So there’s not much about these naval Durant is particularly sophisticated. We just haven’t seen them patched together like this before. So to think that this technological innovation is going to state just in Ukraine is kind of stupid. So you need to look around the world for other navies that really shouldn’t exist much longer, because if they get in a shooting war with a neighbor. All it’s going to take is a few non dudes on jet skis and they’re gone. Well, the country that is going to suffer the most from this is is Russia. All of Russia’s maritime access points where it has naval ports are contested and, yeah, yeah, it’s got that really, really, really, crazy long Arctic coastline, but hardly anyone lives there, with the exception of Archangel and romansk, which are the basis for the Arctic fleet. And both of those are within jet ski range of Norway St Petersburg and the Baltic Sea Fleet is even more constrained. Anything that wants to operate there has to get by Finland and Estonia and Latvia and Lithuania and Sweden and Denmark and Poland and Germany. So yeah, not happening. The only other remaining base is out in Vladivostok, excuse me, where the Russians are completely circumscribed by the Japanese islands. So you know, any meaningful conflict involving any of these theaters and the Russians lose it all very, very, very quickly to jet skis. I mean, that’s just, that’s just embarrassing. I mean, the Russians have never been an evil power because all of its navy points are constrained, and one fleet can’t really reinforce the other. But still, this is just a little over the top. They’re hardly alone. Basically, there are a lot of countries that are near one another, that don’t like one another, and getting a few motorboats or jet skis together to throw things out of whack is a really good plan. So for example, if the Israelis and the Turks don’t find a way to get along, both of them can largely decimate the regional navies. This is a bigger problem for Turkey because it’s on the Black Sea, and that means it has to have good relations with not just the Russians and the Georgians, but the Romanians and the Bulgarians. And of course, then there’s the Greeks. The Aegean Sea is probably going to be a no go zone for the Turkish Navy, which basically makes it really important for the Turks to get along with Israel. Otherwise it won’t have Navy at all. So. Uh, but the the real fun starts in the Persian Gulf, where Iran and Kuwait and Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Emirates and OMA can basically whenever they want to bomb each other’s uh, navies. Not that any of them have navies, but it’s a commercial thing. All of these countries are dependent upon the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to get crude out and now it takes really, really low tech stuff to interrupt it. But the real, real crazy exciting stuff is going to happen in East Asia, because every Chinese port is on the wrong side of the first island chain. That’s the line of islands going south from Japan to include Taiwan and the Philippines and Indonesia, I would look to Indonesia and the Philippines to really explore these technologies, because they’re not naval powers, but anyone can buy some bombs on a jet ski, and all of a sudden, all this money that the Chinese have been investing in their navy is completely pointless. Now, of course, if you’re talking about the Big Three navies in the world, that’s the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. Those are the three big naval powers. The game might be a little different. One of the reason why these three countries are the world’s biggest naval powers is because of their positioning, obviously, Japan and the United Kingdom island. So they have to have a navy, and then the United States is basically on a continent more or less by itself, from a strategic point of view. Well, in the case of Japan, all of its ports are on the east side of the island, so they’re out of jet ski range. And for the United Kingdom, as long as they get along well with Norway, Denmark and France, there’s nothing to worry about there, and that’s one of the many reasons why NATO tries to keep an eye on all of these relationships. It’ll be perfectly blunt the French and the Brits. There’s a lot of bad water under the bridge there, but they’re not about to go Bond’s eye on one another, and the dames, the Norwegians and the Brits have gotten along well for centuries, so that’s probably okay. There’s still the open question, though, of where can you operate? Just because you can get your ship out of Port doesn’t mean you can do anything with it, because if you come in range of a foreign coastline, the jet skis may very well come out. And so we’re going to have to see a counter revolution in naval technology here. And I want to go so far as to say the age of the super carrier is over, because those things are really tough to sink, and they are really fast and they are really useful. But if someone’s coming at you with a fleet of jet skis, you don’t have the right weapons for that. There’s nothing on the ships, or even the ring of ships that supports them that can shoot down at an angle to engage these things. So we’ll need something new. Now the Navy is working on something called the replicator initiative, which isn’t simply going to field a bunch of drones, it’s going to turn all of the major surface combatants into drone manufacturing centers so they can kick out dozens of these things in a few hours, is the theory. And if that happens, you get some serious drone on drone action. And while using a jet ski against a capital ship is a big bang for your buck, using a small drone against a large drone is even bigger bang. So according to the Navy, within two years, replicator should be online, at least in a prototype fashion. We’ll see what it looks like. Then it’s all a question of whether or not the existing naval powers can innovate at a speed that the upstarts are. I can tell you this for sure. They’re putting a budget behind it, because I don’t want to lose those big boats. All right, that’s it for me, until next time.