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Phosphate is a key component in the global fertilizer supply chain, aiding in the production of crops and food. China is the world’s biggest exporter of phosphate, but after a deadly outbreak of African swine fever four years ago, China began to hoard the essential element.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan warns that with a new surge in African swine fever infections recently reported in China, and fears of food insecurity growing, China’s phosphate stockpiles will be impacted with the potential to disrupt the world’s food supply for years.
Excerpted from Peter’s Mar. 20 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
If you’ve read my latest book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, you know what question keeps me up at night: How long will we be able to feed the world’s population? With threats to food security increasing daily, China is a scary example of how quickly this situation could go from critical to catastrophic.
Four years ago, China faced the worst case of African Swine Fever [sic] (ASF) ever recorded. It spread through their pig population like wildfire, resulting in the killing of massive amounts of livestock. Since then, the CCP has limited reporting of outbreaks and testing for ASF. Some brave CCP reps are now reporting the actual numbers and I wouldn’t be surprised if this outbreak becomes worse than the last. So what does that mean for China’s food security?
The only other relevant foodstuff that China produces is rice. Unfortunately for them, the phosphate fertilizer that rice needs to grow is already facing massive shortages. China was once the largest exporter of phosphate, but they’ve started hoarding the stuff as the potential for food shortages increases.
Thanks to stockpiles of fertilizers (and some help from Mother Nature), the world was able to wiggle by last year. With increasing disruptions to the nutrients used in fertilizers and food security overall, the world is going to face severe problems in the years to come.
