Russia targets Ukraine infrastructure as winter approaches

Hello from Colorado, everybody, Peter Zeihan here, if you have been following me, then you are aware that we’re kind of in a bit of a holding pattern in the Ukraine war. Not that I don’t think that…there expect to be conflict. In fact, I think that Ukrainians are going to launch a serious offensive, but we’re not going to get our real fight until the spring, when the mud is gone and the Russians have half a million new troops in the fight and the Ukrainians have done all that deferred maintenance and all that Russian equipment that they’ve captured. Then we’re going to see the two of them really go at it. 

Until then, we’re going to have this idea that the Ukrainians are on the front foot, and they are, and that the Russians are reacting and reacting poorly and badly, and they are. But while all of that is going on, it’s not like the Russians don’t have tools. As we started to see a few weeks ago and as we’re gonna see more and more intently moving forward, the Ukrainians have the momentum. They’re getting more and more gear. And the Russians know that that’s not a tide that they can blunt. 

So what they’re trying to do is to destroy the ability of Ukraine to function at all as a country by going after water and power infrastructure, particularly in the dead of winter. The logic being that if they can break the Ukrainians’ ability to have a modern society and industry, then the rest of the war really doesn’t matter. Because the capacity of the Ukrainians to fight and to resist and to advance simply dissolves into nothing, and then the war is over and the Russians just walk in and take over. That’s the logic anyway.

How it’s going to play out in real time is some immense human suffering on a scale we haven’t seen yet. Remember, we’ve already had one-third of the Ukrainian population uprooted and displaced or become refugees. So the scale is already pretty big and the scale of what’s coming is going to be even bigger. Several Ukrainian cities have populations of over a million. And if you remove the support infrastructure that allows you to support a population of over a million, you no longer have a million people living there one way or the other. 

To that end Zeihan on Geopolitics, that’s the firm that’s bringing you all of this, chooses a different charity every few months. Right now we’re going with Med Share, specifically because of the Ukrainian fund. Med Share provides medical assistance to communities who for whatever reason, are unable to provide it themselves. So not simply places that need medical assistance. That’s a long list, places that are down on their luck because of factors beyond their control. Places that normally would be able to provide for themselves who just need a helping hand for the moment.

To that end, all of our sales from all of our books will be going to Medshare until at least the end of the year. And then we’ll of course reassess when we get to January, based on how the war is. But to give you an idea of what you’re getting into, the first book is here is “The Accidental Superpower.” This one’s now 10 years old, but it is the first major publication that called for the inevitability of a Russian assault on Ukraine and the why and the how and the where. So solid starting point. 

Next up is “The Absent Superpower.” While this is majority an energy book, there is an entire section in it called Russia’s Twilight War, which talks about why the Russians are doing what they’re doing right now. And why Ukraine is really only the first step in a multi-step military operation. Big fat section on specifically what’s going on now in energy markets and what you should expect as the Russian energy output simply falls off the market altogether.

Third up, get a little bit more recent here, this one’s only three years old. This is “Disunited Nations.” There’s a big fat chapter in here on Russia specifically, and explains why the Russians are going to make one last grand grand for Empire before the whole system falls apart on them. 

And then finally, most recently coming out in June, “The End of the World is Just the Beginning.” Where the others are the rise and fall of great nations kind of books, this one’s more on the economic after-effects. So in the aftermath of the Ukraine war, what happens to global energy? In the aftermath of a Chinese collapse, what happens to global manufacturing and transport? 

Anyway, all sales, all four books until at least the end of the year, I think I’m supposed to say here that they all make great stocking stuffers but I think it’s more accurate to say that these are more “I told you so” books. If you’re gonna give them as a gift, so keep that in mind. There’s going to be pushed back. Okay, that’s it for me. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and I will see you in December.